The Greatest Medical Disaster Ever

We're almost certainly in the middle of the greatest medical disaster ever. The reason being the sheer scale of the experiment. Even a tiny negative overall effect will add up to a large number.

We're currently at more than 2 billion vaccinated people. It's reasonable to expect that more than 3 billion will be vaccinated by the end of this. That means that we only need a negative effect of around 3% to end up with 100 million lost lives.

With everybody by now knowing someone that's fallen ill from the vaccine, it's possible to argue that everybody taking the shot is on average losing 3% of their lives. Some die soon. Others go later. Some are obviously related to the vaccine. Others less so. But hardly anyone will truthfully argue that the vaccine has no ill effect. The 3% remains a plausible estimate even if a little high.

Furthermore, no-one has to die of the vaccine in order for this argument to hold. All that's required is a 3% reduction in lifespan. Once that has been accepted, we can point out that if everybody looses 3% of their lives on average, that's equivalent to 3% dead with the rest unaffected. Either way, we end up with loss of life corresponding to 100 million on a total population of 3.3 billion.

But we don't need 100 million lost lives in order for this to be a formidable disaster. 10 million lives is also a big number, and we get that with a negative impact of a mere 0.3%.

To get the overall negative effect we must offset the positive effect with negative effects of the vaccine itself as well as the diseases that the vaccine opens up for. Considering that the disease we are vaccinating against has a mortality rate of less than one percent, there's not much room for error before the vaccine become a net negative. The fact that the vaccine is less than 100% effective gives us even less wiggle-room.

The only reason we're still officially on the positive side of the equation is that many vaccine related illnesses are recorded as unrelated. This can be confirmed by noting cases of strange illnesses ourselves, and infer whether they are likely to be vaccine related without being officially registered as such. I know of several such cases, and I'm sure others do too. More cases will no doubt come with time.

I'd be surprised if we're not in fact at negative 0.3% by now, and at 3% or more by the end of this. Hence, by my reckoning, we're currently in the middle of the greatest medical disaster ever.

Delta

By Dcoetzee, F l a n k e r - Own work, Public Domain, Link