Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Micro-Compost

This post describes an experiment in composting that ultimately led me to create a worm composter, which is where I'm currently at as far as this ongoing experiment is concerned. This doesn't mean that micro-compos are a bad idea. They worked well and made us self sufficient in terms of fresh earth for our plants.

However, I suspect that worm composters are more efficient and more convenient. I've therefore decided to continue my experiment in that direction. But for anyone interested in micro-composting, here's what we did.

*

My wife and I have a balcony with twenty or so potted plants. To keep these plant with nutrients, we add so called "plant food" to their water every now and again. However, we've recently come across a better way to keep our plants healthy. Instead of giving our plants artificial nutrients, we've put tiny composters into the flower pots.

Micro-compost
Micro-compost

These are 1 litre plastic bins that we've cut into to allow for air circulation and direct contact with the earth. Holes are cut along the top for air supply, and a hole is cut into the bottom.

Micro-composter cut from plastic bin
Micro-composter cut from plastic bin

Once properly placed into the soil, so that the air vents are above ground, kitchen refuse can be put into them. A convenient way to do this is to keep a small bin in the kitchen where easily compostable refuse is put. This refuse must be cut into tiny pieces with scissors or a knife before going into the composters. Apart from that, there's no extra work involved.

Bin with kitchen refuse
Bin with kitchen refuse

Easily composting refuse are anything vegetable, with the exception of seeds. Egg shell, tea leaves and coffee are also good. A healthy compost should have some dry leaves in it as well. This can be collected from the potted plants themselves. A few peanut shell and small twigs can also go into the composters to keep them from getting too wet.

Positive effects on plants

The effectiveness of our composters has been remarkable. Our plants reacted positively from the very start, immediately producing new shoots and denser and healthier foliage.

Fresh shoots
Fresh shoots

The composters are currently compacting refuse at a rate of about a centimetre or two every day, which translates to a requirement of 4 litre of composters for each person in our household. We have a diet relatively rich in vegetables, so people with a less vegetarian diet will require less while strict vegetarians may need an extra litre per person.

Procedures

Our experience is that healthy compost is best created by filling several bins in parallel so that bugs and bacteria can evolve naturally into the refuse before we move onto the next bins. Our routine is as follows:

  1. Ready several bins by picking them up and dumping their content into a bucket together with some regular soil.
  2. Leave a little compost in each bin to seed the next lot with bug eggs and bacteria.
  3. Fill the bins in descending quantities over the next few days until the first ones are full.
  4. Close the full ones, ready new ones as needed, and carry on.

Compost needs air circulation in order to work. This is the reason for the soil added to the bucket where we dump our fresh compost. Without the soil, the compost lumps together into a sticky mess. However, with the added soil, composting continues in the bucket.

Even better than a bucket is a large flower pot with holes in the bottom, put on top of regular soil, so that water drains out into the soil below, and worms and bugs find their way up through the holes.

We're currently experimenting with an arrangement of flower pots stacked on top of each other. The idea is to get the best possible environment for the final part of the composting process. The challenge is to get the right mix of soil, compost and dry leaves for maximum efficiency.

Flower pots for final stage of composting behind a sunflower
Flower pots for final stage of composting behind a sunflower

As for the micro-composters, it's important to resist the temptation to push refuse into the bins to get as much as possible into them. If pushed into the bins, composting will be retarded due to lack of air, and there will be a smelly sticky mess instead of a nice healthy compost.

When filled correctly, there will be at first a pleasant sweet smell of freshly cut grass coming from the bins. This smell turns gradually towards a smell of damp forest.

Composters and bucket
Composters and bucket

Every now and again, we take compost from our bucket and spread it out like a "forest floor" for our plants. It's surprising how much can be given to the plants in this way. Compost dissolves naturally into the soil below, so much so that we're able to consume all of it ourselves.

Compost that has been spread out on soil outdoors dries up and becomes odourless over time. At that point it can be scraped off and taken indoors for house plants so that these too can benefit from our production.

We cannot take compost into the house directly from the bins because freshly produced dirt is not as sterile and clean as dirt bought in stores. Fresh compost contains bits of recognizable refuse, and egg shells are mostly intact. Fresh out of the bin, it looks slimy and dirty. There's also a faint unpleasant smell, but that fades within hours.

If spread out while still sticky and slimy, compost forms a dry shell-like dome as it dries. This dome must be crushed by tapping it with a spoon or other suitable instrument so that it crumbles into dust. The dust will subsequently drain into the soil when the plants are watered.

The compost becomes much less sticky and slimy if the bucket or stack of flower pots where the fresh compost is stored is properly mixed in with dirt. The problem also becomes less with more bugs and worms. Two years into this experiment, we have all sorts of bugs, including earth worms. They help speed up the composting process, and we no longer have this problem. 

Compost dumped to free up space
Compost dumped to free up space

Micro-composts attract fruit flies and other insects, but these don't stray far from the bins. Very few find their way into our apartment, and a few fruit flies fluttering around here and there is not of any great concern to us. It's not like they are all over the place. In fact, one of the charms of this is the great variety of insects that our micro-composts attract. Our balcony is no longer a sterile display of flowers and plants, but a buzzling place of activity. It looks, smells and feels like a proper garden.

Keep in mind that insects are most active when the air is warm. In the cool morning air, fruit flies can hardly fly, so it's a good idea to fill the composters early or late in the evening, and to keep from disturbing them during the hot hours of the day.

Observations

Two years into this project, we've noticed a reduction in fruit flies. Our eco-system is more balanced. Instead of only a few types of insects, we have a large variety, and many of the newcomers appear to be fond of fruit fly larva.

Our initial fear that our apartment might get invaded by bugs has also been laid to rest. We have no more problems with insects entering our apartment these days than we had before we started this experiment.

Contemplating life over a cup of coffee
Contemplating life over a cup of coffee

The positive effect on the plants from the micro-composts was so immediate that I concluded that most of the effect must have been due to the production of CO2 rather than nitrogen from the compost itself. It appears that we've stumbled on a verification of one of NASA's claims. Namely that our planet is greening due to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Additionally, we can conclude that most composting and gardening is currently done wrong. Composting shouldn't be done in big heaps, separate from the garden, but in small heaps among the plants themselves. When done at this scale, no other fertilizers are needed.

There's also less need of pesticides because micro-composts attract a variety of insects, many of which are predators that eat pests like aphides and caterpillars. The annual invasion of slugs that we've been having every fall have been reduced, most probably due to the composts. However, we've also had fierce pest attacks due to temporarily imbalances, probably introduced into our composts from kitchen refuse. These attacks have been limited in scope. The overall effect of the composts has been positive, but it would be a lie to say that pests are completely gone.

We made no special effort to seed our composts when we started this project. Apart from a little dirt gathered from a local garden, we added nothing to the sterile soil. However, we now have all sots of insects. We even have earth worms. How they got into our compost is a mystery. They weren't there to start with. But half a year into our project, we got a few specimens in one of our pots and they have since spread to all pots and multiplied to a number consistent with what can be expected in a well composted garden.

The earth worms have had the effect of speeding things up, and they produce a more earth-like end product. They eat into the fresh compost left behind by other organism, completing the process of turning refuse into soil. Their effect on the whole process has been remarkable.

Wax plant with bee
Wax plant with bee

It's clear that the micro-composters create a micro-climate and eco-system much to the liking of our plants and insects. Even birds have been attracted to our balcony. While they have no interest in the composters, they do at times scurry through the forest floor in search of beetles and worms. This leaves a mess on on the balcony floor, and can cause damage to the plants.

The solution to this problem is to open the bucket where the final stage of composting is taking place. This is where the majority of worms and bugs live and birds will home in on this. They will eat bugs and leave bird turds instead. The birds are fed without leaving a mess or damaging our plants, and we get compost rich in nutrients.

Our balcony has become an eco-system, with life forms ranging from bacteria and fungus, to plants, insects, and birds. Finding this fascinating, we've involved our son in this and challenged him to make a picture of what's going on. This is what he made with some help from his father:

Eco-system
Eco-system

We'll bring this up again for our son as he grows older, adding details to his picture for deeper understanding.

An ongoing experiment

We started this project in September 2020, and have now seen this through two winters. The first thing we noticed during fall is the disappearance of hoverflies. The diversity of insects go down. As it gets colder, composting slowed down so much that we have to stop filling the composters. However, composting doesn't stop completely. Temperatures where we live don't fall enough for everything to stop, but the composting is taken over almost entirely by bacteria and fungus, the result of which is a more foul smelling product, reminiscent of horse manure rather than fresh dirt. This smell will persist for some time unless dealt with by spraying the compost with water.

This reverses back to normal once spring returned with sun and warm weather. However, to avoid sour smelling compost, it's best to refrain from filling the composters during the cold months. The rule we use for ourselves is that we stop filling the composters once insects disappear, and we don't start filling the composters again before they come back.

Another trick we've employed lately is to dig down in the earth directly below the composters and dump unfinished compost into these holes. This brings healthy black earth up to the surface while at the same time hiding whatever unfinished compost below ground. We do this as part of spring preparations. The effect is visually pleasing, and it solves the problem of messy looking and smelly spring compost. It's also good for the plants because it simulates the activity of burrowing animals, circulating nutrients in the soil and loosening things up for the root systems.

Our compost has had tremendous positive effects on our rose bush and Bougainvillea. They produce large flowers and healthy looking leaves.

Bougainvillea
Bougainvillea

However, other plants show signs of stress when receiving too much fresh compost. Our Margarita looked confused and its leaves were pale this spring.

Confused Margarita
Confused Margarita

But it soon recovered when we reduced the amount of compost given to it, and it has since yielded healthy looking flowers. Its leaves are also back to a healthy dark green.

Our abundant production of compost has prompted us to get more pots, and thereby increase the number of plants over which to spread it. With our balcony large enough to fit some decent size bins, we now have even more plants on our balcony.

One of two large bins
One of two large bins

Some plants love their soil as rich as possible while others like it less so. The trick is to find the right balance of dirt and compost and the right type of plants. Instead of looking for plants that require little compost, we're now making a point of finding plants that consume large quantities of it.

Saturday, September 26, 2020

The Problem with Censorship

Censorship of political thought is a silly idea regardless of whether it is done directly by government, as has been the rule in the past, or by corporations as is the norm today. More often than not, the censors get exactly the opposite of what they hoped for.

The reason for this is that the chances of getting censorship right is virtually zero. Top quality censorship has to be done subtly, and with style. It must be viewed as a necessary and useful intrusion into the public debate. Otherwise people end up resenting the censorship, and sympathising with the ones being censored. The sensors must in other words be fairly sophisticated. They must also be very numerous. That's a tall order to fill, and very expensive to boot. The censoring agents will therefore have to employ less subtle methods. They will use machines to censor in bulk, and they will employ people so devoted to censorship that they are willing to work for very little money.

No matter how technologically advanced we become, censorship will remain a tool of the brutes. Machines will fail to filter correctly, and volunteers will make it worse. The end result is something that is either so clownishly stupid that it backfires spectacularly, or so horrifying that it silences people without changing their minds. Either way, there will be resentment. But in the event of apparent success, we get a further dynamic. The censoring agents start believing their own propaganda. Emboldened and internally pressured by their peers, they move the goal post farther to the extreme. This pushes the enabling agents in this direction, opening the middle ground for the opposition. From the looks of it, this is what's going on in US politics at the moment. The Democratic party is drifting farther to the left, allowing Republicans to capture the middle ground.

Joe Biden Receives Presidential Medal of Freedom.jpg
Joe Biden receives presidential medal of freedom

By Chuck Kennedy - https://www.facebook.com/WhiteHouse/photos/pb.63811549237.-2207520000.1484275919./10155140878359238/?type=3&theater, Public Domain, Link

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Up, but Relative to What

I have a friend who works as an investment fund manager in Norway. His fund is up a whopping 26% this year, making it Norway's best performing fund. But there's a catch. The Norwegian currency is down 10% relative to the dollar, and the dollar is down 20% relative to gold. This means that his fund made 16% relative to the dollar, and relative to gold, it's down 4%.

This illustrates the importance of relative measures. When looking at performance, we must always ask what the performance is measured against, and we must choose a measure that has stood the test of time. That measure can only be gold, because that's the only measure that has kept its purchasing power. All other measures will make it look like we're doing fine when in reality, we're loosing money.

In related news, the financial press in Norway has been recommending that people sell their gold because of the current correction in its dollar price. However, the gold priced in Norwegian kroner is continuing up. Anyone selling gold for Norwegian kroner has so far been loosing money on this advice.

Goldeagle.jpg
Gold eagle

Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Fear and Compliance

Most people don't realize this, but we're in the middle of a social experiment. Government bureaucrats are busy finding the exact mechanisms required for maximum compliance to arbitrary rules. At their disposal, they have propaganda and coercion, and their goal is to find the perfect mix.

The great thing about this is that attentive citizens can make their own observations. The findings are everywhere to be seen. No special equipment is required in order to observe the results.

What I find interesting from my vantage-point in Porto where I live, is the fact that there is more compliance now than at the start of the year. While people are less fearful of the virus now than back in March, the willingness to comply with government recommendations are going up. I see more people wearing masks when outside now than back then, even as this remains a recommendation rather than law, and the level of fear is lower.

I'd say that the compliant population where I live is about 30% or so. That's an astonishingly high number, considering that masks do nothing to actually contain the spread of the virus. It can even be argued that it makes it worse because numbers from Sweden, where rules were the most relaxed and masks were never worn, come out better than numbers in Spain where masks and self isolation was mandated by law.

The new compliance comes in conjunction with the second wave of the virus, which was advertised as early as in March. Now that the advertised second wave has arrived, a large number of people blindly comply with recommendations. This proves that persistent propaganda will triumph over rational thinking in about one third of the population.

A further experiment that would be interesting to see, would be to introduce a third wave into the narrative. This appears to be in the making, so we have a fairly good chance of actually getting it. A third wave is already being projected for early next year. Should this happen, I'm curious to see if the compliance will be higher or lower. A third wave would be met with very little real fear, so anyone following the recommendations related to it would be doing so almost entirely out of a willingness to comply.

As an added bonus, I find it interesting to see how far bureaucrats are willing to go in their pursuit of this kind of knowledge. They are apparently untouched by the human misery that they create in their eagerness to attain control of their fellow men. Seen in this perspective, this social experiment is just as much about them as it is about their subjects.

Finally, we mustn't forget that history doesn't actually repeat itself. Any information gained from this experiment is of limited value. To think that people will react in an identical manner to similar stimuli in the future is to underestimate people's capacity to learn from mistakes. Once it becomes clear to most people that everyone has been lied to, a second attempt at a similar power grab may end up very different. All that we're learning from this is that 30% of ordinary people are naturally inclined towards compliance, and 100% of bureaucrats are similarly inclined. Apart from that, future history will find a way to produce surprises that will both delight and terrify, just like it has in the past.

Execution robespierre, saint just....jpg
Execution of Robespierre

By Unknown author - This image comes from Gallica Digital Library and is available under the digital ID btv1b6950750j, Public Domain, Link

Monday, September 21, 2020

Planet B

Phosphine gas has been detected in the clouds of Venus. While this is not in itself proof that there must be life on Venus, the only known sources of this gas on Earth are non-oxygen breathing microbes. It's therefore likely that Venus has this kind of microbes present in her atmosphere.

This discovery folds nicely in with predictions made by myself and other proponents of the Electric Universe. In this alternative world view, things happen faster than what is generally believed. There is also an abundance of life throughout the universe, primarily in the form of microbes and similarly primitive organisms. Venus is believed to be a young planet, possibly no more than 10,000 years old. Ejected, as a hot ball of minerals and gases from Jupiter, she's still cooling down from her birth. But she's evidently already cool enough to host certain microbes. Alternatively, the presence of phosphine might be due to her likely origin as a storm in the atmosphere of Jupiter, which also contains phosphine. Either way, the presence of this gas in Venus' clouds constitutes compelling evidence in support of the Electric Universe paradigm.

The ejection of Venus from Jupiter
The ejection of Venus from Jupiter

Instead of things taking millions of years to unfold, as is the general assumption among astronomers, the Electric Universe sees many processes happen at much shorter time scales. The time scales involved in the creation and subsequent cooling down and stabilization of new planets is one such deviation of theory. Being of roughly equal size to Earth, and with plenty of minerals and gases to convert into organic matter, Venus has the potential to turn into an inhabitable planet within a hundred thousand years or so.

This makes Venus rather than Mars the most likely planet to serve as an alternative to Earth in the not too distant future. While Venus is not currently our planet B, she may well be so a hundred thousand years from now.

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Calculation Problems

Ludwig von Mises pointed out as early as 1920 that rational economic calculations are impossible under a command economy. With prices set centrally at will, no rational decision making can be made. Without a free market for goods and services, scarcities cannot be accurately detected and corrected. No amount of surveys and research can take the place of a free market.

This is due to the fact that the market consists of every single person in a society, while a central bureaucracy necessarily must be but a small fraction of the total market. A small set of individuals cannot accurately determine the needs and preferences of all people.

One way of looking at this is that every person in a free society acts like a neuron in a network that encompasses the entire society. Each person transmits signals as to his or her needs and desires so that the overall calculation can be made trough a free exchange of goods and services. Any attempt at a simulation of such a network based on substantially fewer neurons will necessarily fail.

The problem is not merely one of calculation. It is also one of detection. Even if equipped with massively advanced supercomputers, the bureaucrats would be helpless in their search for correct prices because they would be lacking in inputs. There's no way of sampling all needs and desires. We may desire one thing one moment, and something else a little later. These are real time preferences that cannot be registered and fed into a computer.

The free market is in essence a computer, and no computer made by humans can ever come close to what society is by default. By extension, no amount of data gathering by government agents can ever predict the future actions of their subjects. There is little to fear from organizations such as NSA and CIA. They can only monitor a small number of people, and the ones they monitor closely are still impossible to predict. We are therefore free to do whatever we please, as long as some basic precautions are taken. The idea that government spies can find out what we're up to is just as much a myth today as it always was. They may have a lot of data on us, but they have no way of making sense of it all. It's simply too much and too complex for anyone to figure out, even when in the possession of the latest and greatest in computer technology.

Taking this line of thought one step further, we can view the universe as a huge computer in which every particle is a neuron capable of receiving and emitting signals. From this it's clear that we cannot ever hope to produce a computer that manages to simulate anything but very trivial processes. Long term weather forecasts will for ever be uncertain because the number of particles involved are trillions of times more numerous than the computing transistors used to simulate them.

This reduces our scope of predictive power to general trends and trivial certainties. We can be quite certain about things taking place in our immediate future. The rain outside will probably continue for a few more hours. What happens after that is less certain. On the long end we can also be relatively certain that our local climate will stay more or less as it is. What the weather will be on this day in Porto a year from now is on the other hand anyone's guess. It may be dry or rainy. It may be hot or cold. It will not snow, and it will not be scorching hot. That's about all we can say.

The more we limit our scope in time beyond our immediate future, the less certain we can be about what might happen. However, once we allow for broad time horizons, we can say quite a few things with confidence. Political instability appears likely. Economic uncertainty is also a pretty safe bet. We can therefore assume that the price of gold will continue its upwards trajectory. The exact shape and form of future events are unclear, but some consequences are close to certain.

Likewise when it comes to astronomy, we can be relatively certain that Jupiter will eject another moon at some point. However, when this is going to happen is far from clear. It may happen this decade, or it may happen thousands of years into the future. Again we see that detailed predictions are impossible, even if the trend and overall mechanisms involved are clear and well understood.

Jupiter ejecting a moon
Jupiter ejecting a moon

Inflection Points

An inflection is an event in which something goes from behaving one way to behaving opposite. The inflection point is the exact moment when this happens. An example from chemistry is the moment a substance goes from resisting combustion to when combustion becomes self sustained. A stick of dynamite will resist heat and shock to a certain point, beyond which it explodes. A piece of paper will resist heat up to a point when it suddenly starts burning. Everywhere in chemistry, there's a push needed in order to start a reaction.

Carbon and hydrogen combining to produce methane
Carbon and hydrogen combining to produce methane

There is an energy hill that has to be overcome in order to set off chemical reactions. The inflection point, where resistance to change is overcome is at the peak of this hill.

Energy hill
Energy hill

This tendency to resist change is not confined to chemistry. It's universal. It's even part of human nature. Our first reaction to most suggestions is to say no. Only after a bit of persuasion and thought on our part are we willing to act. At that point we may turn quite enthusiastic, or we may remain reluctant, depending on whether we feel that we gain or lose on the suggested activity.

History is full of these kinds of events when inactivity suddenly turn to activity. We have revolutions, panics, wars and so on. Things may seem calm and orderly. There can be a sense of endless tolerance and acceptance. But then, all of a sudden, things flip.

In this respect, I expect something dramatic to happen fairly soon. The dollar will collapse from constant fiscal abuse. Suddenly, there will be very little demand for dollars. People will want to use something else in trade. While buying a house today is done exclusively in fiat currency, it will be done regularly in gold in the future. What would today be seen as eccentric to the extreme will be common place and often preferred in the future.

Farther afield, there's the hypothesis that the red spot on Jupiter is a moon in the making. At some point, it will be ejected as a hot ball of minerals. The inflection point will be when the storm becomes so tall that electrostatic forces between the storm and the planet go from being attractive to repulsive. Once detached from Jupiter's atmosphere, the newly formed moon will race out and away to find an orbit among the other moons of Jupiter.

Jupiter ejecting a moon
Jupiter ejecting a moon

Mastering Fear

Fear is a basic instinct that protects us from harm. We fear wild beasts, and we fear heights and storms and big waves. All of this is natural and important. It protects us from doing things that may kill us. However, it's not a very useful emotion beyond this. We don't think very clearly when we are fearful. We should therefore make an effort to control our fears so that we only experience this emotion when there's something truly dangerous and imminent.

One way of doing this would be to accustom ourselves to dangerous situations. We could take up sky-diving. We could spend endless hours playing war simulation games. We could riot in the streets. We could leverage up and play the stock market. All of this will make us face our fears and learn to deal with them. However, it's the exact opposite of what we should do. Constantly on the edge, we'll simply exhaust ourselves, and since we're facing things we should be fearful of anyway, we're not learning anything useful. It's not useful to simulate a war or engage in real confrontations in the streets, because these are situations we should avoid. The only types of fear we can usefully treat in this confrontational manner are phobias. A fear of cracked sidewalks is best treated by walking on cracked sidewalks. But what irrational fear is treated by jumping out of an airplane? None whatsoever. Irrational fear of height can be treated just as well by standing on a balcony. No-one needs to jump out of an airplane.

Constantly on edge, we end up more prone to anxiety, not less. We become fearful of all sorts of things, and we become easy to manipulate. We become blind to a number of real dangers that may seem quite benign. In particular, we become blind to the controlling impulses of psychopaths. Unaware of their trickeries, we fall into the trap of thinking that the people who scare us are the ones who can save us. Willingly, we give up our liberties to these people, unaware of their sinister intent.

However, if we protect ourselves from real dangers, we create for ourselves the environment required to become truly fearless. In such an environment, we can relax and contemplate changes in society that may hold dangers. We can plan and navigate accordingly. Always one step ahead of the crowd, we may even make ourselves a small fortune in the process.

The trick is to start with a complete retreat from all that is truly dangerous and stressful. We get out of our leveraged stock positions. We pay down debt. We stop fighting and bickering on the web and/or in the streets. We find a secluded place to live, far from any imminent dangers. Then we start positioning ourselves for things that may come. We buy gold to protect ourselves from price inflation. We home-school our children. We grow food in our gardens. We interact with our neighbours in positive and constructive ways.

Done correctly, a calm descends on us, and we only feel fear when things get truly ugly and imminent. Watching the flu unfold with this kind of calm, I was able to spot the hoax early. The climate hoax has been similarly unmasked, and the true danger of heavy taxation and loss of liberty has been revealed and dealt with through sensible measures. Our wealth has been protected, and our son has been taken out of school. If things get nasty, we have the means to deal with it. We don't have a fixed plan, but we're monitoring events, and will act decisively should there be a need for that. We're prepared, and have no fear of the future. That's more than can be said of my skydiving friend who constantly worries about climate change and the flu.

Добромир Славчев - парашутизъм, freefly 1.jpg
Skydiving

By Добромир Славчев Krdbot) Recommended by EugeneZelenko Regarding category Dobromir Slavchev (b. 1973) is a Bulgarian writer. I have presented a full correspondence between me and the author of the photos. The permission sent by the author of the photos is according to the template оn https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. I sent them by e-mail: permissions-ru@wikimedia.org Ticket link: https://ticket.wikimedia.org/otrs/index.pl?Action=AgentTicketZoom&TicketNumber=2020062610004069 Yours sincerely Denica Beneva - https://www.goodreads.com/photo/author/7121901._Dobromir_Slavchev, CC0, Link

Friday, September 18, 2020

Integrity in Politics

Party politics is essentially a popularity contest where participants try to make themselves as attractive as possible to the voting public. There is nothing in this game that requires anyone to be truthful or coherent. All that is required is an ability to entice the public, and once in power, take credit for all that is good and deny any ill effects of policy decisions.

This is why people with integrity have a tendency to leave politics through the course of a grand political cycle. Great statesmen appear early in the cycle. They are then replaced by less principled people, who in turn are replaced by grifting opportunists. This happened in Rome, and it's happening in the West today. There is little integrity or intelligence. It's all populism and opportunism, with shallow or non-existent moral backings.

Ideals and loyalty to the public are gradually eroded as the scheming and back stabbing intensifies. It becomes increasingly intolerable to be in politics for those with honest intentions. They get side-lined by their less principled peers. They get kicked out. Only those "open for business" remain. However, even this unsavoury lot comes in various degrees of deprivation, and it's the lowest of the low who have the best chance of surviving. With no principles, and an insatiable thirst for power and money, the truly greedy stay in the game.

While a grand cycle may see some return to honour from time to time, the overall tendency is towards decadence. Instrumental in this are the numerous self-serving agencies that former politicians have set up. These will always resist reform. Such agencies will grow, but never shrink. They will scheme against any reform minded politician.

There is no way to avoid the final collapse of a grand political cycle, and since we appear to be at the end of the current one, we need to take some basic precautions for ourselves. We must be as independent from the people in charge as it is possible to be. We mustn't rely on their money or pension schemes for our well being. We must also stay away from financial assets.

The safest strategy is to avoid the attention of those who will rob us. A modest plot of land, with a modest house, and our other savings in gold, hidden away in a loft or attic, is a strategy that has stood the test of time. It will work just as well this time as it has before.

Rieten dak old farmhouse.jpg
Old farmhouse

By Own work - Rasbak, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Public Schools

School used to be an open and free institution where kids spent a few hours now and again in order to engage in free play and learn a few basic skills, like reading, writing and arithmetic. It was commonly organized around a school house built for this express purpose. The house itself was built with voluntary contributions, and a teacher was hired on the same basis. The job of the teacher was to oversee the free play, and aid in teaching the children basic skills.

There was little to no age segregation. Older kids would often teach younger kids what they had learned. The older kids would also look out for bullying. The teacher would merely oversee the activities, and make sure that everything was in order. The teacher would only perform a few hours of formal teaching a week. For the rest, children learned from each other.

All this ended with the advent of the progressive era, in which we still live. Public schooling was introduced, and children were obliged to spend their time in these institutions. The old school house was replaced with public school buildings that had an eerie similarity to prisons. Children were not allowed to come and go as they pleased. The factory bell was introduced, and children were segregated according to age.

There was no longer any room for flexibility when it came to schooling. Teachers had to be trained in their professions, and all teaching had to follow a curriculum created by expert bureaucrats. A single message was to be sent from the top of the hierarchy to every single child of the land. This message had to be repeated in various ways for many years before any child could go out into the workforce, properly prepared for a life of obedience and conformity.

The curriculum would be tweaked regularly by central bureaucrats so as to constantly conform to the latest fashion in politics. The school house would alter its form too over time, but the strange similarity with prisons would remain. Whenever prisons change their form, schools followed suit. When prisons became more open, with a less imposing architecture, schools changed in the exact same way. When the prison wall was replaced with a fence for low security jails, schools did the same. Low security prisons and schools have the exact same overall architecture.

With totalitarians again on the rise everywhere in politics, it should come as no surprise that schools are following suit. Today, children are forced to wear masks while at school. They are not allowed to look at each other. They are told to look straight down, and blindly accept the message broadcasted to them from the towers of power. That's not all that different from what we see in modern day re-education camps. Again we see that what happens in prisons soon find its way to public schools.

Camp x-ray detainees.jpg
Guantanamo Bay detention camp

By Shane T. McCoy, U.S. Navy - (copied from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Camp_x-ray_detainees.jpg so that the image can be used on Wikinews.), Public Domain, Link

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Idealism in Politics

When it comes to party politics, there's idealism and there's pragmatism. Both are necessary for the success of a party. A party needs some idea at its base in order to stake out a broad coherent message, and it needs pragmatism in order to get the attention of a broad audience. However, pragmatism and idealism are not compatible. For a truly broad and coherent message, ideas have to be crystal clear and detailed. This is in direct conflict with pragmatism, where opportunities are grabbed on the fly, and messages are deliberately altered in order to gain the support of marginal voters.

Idealists tend to be detailed to the point where any deviation becomes a violation of principle. This means that only those who fully agree with every aspect of the basic principle will find the party welcoming. With people having different points of view and different basic values, no pure idealistic party can expect to gain support from more than a tiny fraction of the voting public. Such a party will for ever be a marginal entity with no political power. At best, it can influence people in their direction, but a seat in parliament is virtually impossible to attain.

On the other hand, pure pragmatism can easily gain political support. They can get seats in parliament. But once in power, they will have no idea what to do. Without an ideological base, there's no way to stake out a direction. The party comes unglued, and their influence is short lived and minimal at best.

Two examples from Norway serve to illustrate these two extremes. There is in Norway a party that has the removal of toll roads as its only philosophy. It gained several seats in parliament due to its appeal among frustrated commuters. However, the party is today a mere shadow of its former self. With nothing else to keep it together, their party members have ended up aligning with all sorts of different political parties, often in direct conflict with other members in their own party.

A classical Liberal party, on the other hand, has been remarkably clear about its politics from its inception some ten years ago. Everything has been based on Ayn Rand's political philosophy. Every issue has been clearly argued. It's been coherent and broad in scope. But very few people vote for it. Realizing their predicament, this party has become slightly less principled of late. This has gained the attention of at least one populist orator who's now a member. A handful of principles have been tossed aside in return for a star player on the political scene. In doing so, the party has gained substantially in popularity, and may well get a seat or two in parliament after the next election.

None of this is very surprising. Pragmatic posturing is after all the essence of party politics. Principles are only there to give a general direction, and can at any times be changed if it's seen as good politics.

This means that principled people like myself should avoid party politics and focus on practical politics instead. Those of us who want a revolution based on principles must go out and do it ourselves. Communists should join together and create their own communes. There's nothing stopping communists from doing this, so why not just do it? Libertarians like myself should likewise make arrangements that correspond to our basic philosophy. This is not always legal, but why follow laws that can be circumnavigated?

Waiting for a principled party to come to power is like waiting for Godot. It will never happen. However, those of us who start living according to our principles will see real and immediate changes. The reward is there right from the start.

En attendant Godot, Festival d'Avignon, 1978 f22.jpg
Waiting for Godot

By Fernand Michaud - This image comes from Gallica Digital Library and is available under the digital ID btv1b10329630q, CC0, Link

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Climate, Geography and Culture

Cultural differences are generally quite subtle. There is no great difference in the way people behave in different parts of the world. Take away some cultural norms related to clothing and food, and everyone seems to behave more or less the same. Some places may be a little more prone to violence than other places. Some places put more emphasis on religion than other places. There are definitely differences, but they are small, and seemingly randomly distributed. However, on closer inspection, we see some relationships between the natural environment and the local culture.

I noticed at a relatively young age that people from inland Norway had a different view on things than people from coastal Norway. Inland Norwegians were more oriented towards tradition and social order than people at the coast, and it struck me that this must be because inland people are farmers who have to follow the seasons, and plan accordingly, while coastal people are fishermen and traders who have to act more spontaneously. They have to grab the opportunities that come their way.

This general difference between inland people and coastal people exist everywhere, and is a source of tension between rural and cosmopolitan culture. It is the reason we see political divides along these lines.

Another divide that I've come to understand more recently is the divide between cold and warm climate cultures. People in places with long and cold winters must plan much more carefully than people from warmer places. There is therefore a stronger tendency towards conformity and respect for capital in northern countries. In countries where people neither starve nor freeze unless something exceptionally bad happens, cultures can afford to be more lazy and laid back. They can also be more violent. There is less of a need for order.

This has as a consequence that southern cultures are more diverse and dynamic than northern cultures. There is less need for conformity. There is also more tolerance for violence. Having moved to Portugal from Norway some ten years ago I have myself become gradually more laid back and relaxed about things. Life in Portugal is definitely more pleasant. Not only is the climate better, the open and laid back attitude of people makes for a more dynamic and interesting life.

While conformity and planning can be a strength, it can also be a weakness. We see hardly any resistance in Norway to central planning emerging as a dominant political force. The political climate is thoroughly defined by a cold inland climate, and I expect this to adversely affect Norway's economy in the years to come. Creativity will increasingly be replaced by bureaucracy.

On the other hand, Portugal is up and coming. After years under harsh dictatorship, things have been much relaxed. A culture of violent suppression of dissent has shifted towards creative entrepreneurship. People find their way around rules. They do things their own way, and a lot of creativity is thus released.

My expectation for the future is that it is again the south of Europe that will shine. North Europe has lost its way in dogma and conformity, and will remain in decline for some time while the South comes charging back. As a consequence, people with foreign cultures will suffer greatly in the North. With the North in economic decline, false tolerance of foreign cultures will shift towards intolerance.

The South, on the other hand, never engaged in the same cultural indulgence as the North. There was never a great movement of multiculturalism. Muslims were never much liked in Portugal, and have for this reason either left the country or moderated themselves greatly. The kind of clashes we are likely to see in the North will not happen in Portugal.

Portugal's descent into dictatorship was due to a culture of apathy and violence, which was eventually overcome by spontaneous and dynamic revolt. Norway's coming decline will be due to their culture of conformity and loyalty, and will not be broken before coastal people eventually revolt. In the meantime, Portugal is likely to ascend. Maybe not quite as high as it once got back when Portugal ruled the world, but impressive nevertheless.

Armada portugaise.jpg
Portuguese armada

By Unknown author - Scanné de Coureurs des mers, Poivre d'Arvor, Public Domain, Link

Transmutations and the SAFIRE Project

The SAFIRE project has a new video in which they claim to have evidence of low energy transmutations taking place in their plasma chamber. They also claim to have achieved cold fusion results with more energy produced than what was supplied. If true, this would be a major break through for the electric model of our sun, and the hypothesis that stars are electrical accelerators.

It would also prove that transmutations are more common than what is generally believed. It would lend support to the proton-electron model of the atom where subatomic textures tie things together at the nuclear level. Without the electric strong and weak forces to prevent transmutations from happening, such processes can take place more routinely in nature. Controlled transmutations may even happen inside living organisms, as was generally believed before the advent of modern nuclear physics.

Potassium to Calcium transmutation
Potassium to Calcium transmutation

If the claims made by the SAFIRE project turn out to be true, a lot of physics would have to be rewritten, and it's my hope that at least some attention will be given to my proposed model since it seems to match reality better than theories currently in vogue.

Why History Never Repeats

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes, and there is a reason for this: Humans are capable of learning, and as such we avoid repetition. However, we are always influenced by incentives, and have for this reason a tendency to fall into error of similar nature.

This means that we can only make general predictions about the future. The fact that a certain sequence of events led to a certain outcome in the past does not guarantee that it will happen again if repeated. Chances are that we will get something similar, but distinctly different in style. There's simply no way to completely control society.

Riots that took place in Germany in the 1920s led to Nazi Germany. Riots in the US today are likely to produce something entirely different. That we will see changes are all but certain, but it's very unlikely that those changes will be anything like what happened in Germany 100 years ago.

It's not even certain that we will get political chaos. If the intent is to provoke chaos in order to profit from it pragmatically as things unravel, sponsors and instigators may be sorely disappointed. They may even be found out, in which case we'll have something that rhymes better with first French republic events than late Weimar republic events.

Either way, history will unfold in new and unpredictable ways. While some things may be near certain, such as the collapse of the current political and economic world order, other things are completely open and best kept at a distance. Our best option is to focus on the well being of ourselves and our nearest and dearest. Our quiet and sustainable revolution can roll on as the old establishment burns.

Execution robespierre, saint just....jpg
Execution of Robespierre

By Unknown author - This image comes from Gallica Digital Library and is available under the digital ID btv1b6950750j, Public Domain, Link

In Pursuit of Happiness

When Thomas Jefferson wrote that every man has the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, he was paraphrasing the liberal doctrine of life, liberty and property. His alteration from property to the pursuit of happiness was no doubt for political reasons. Private property rights were as contested back then as they are today, so Jefferson chose to phrase himself in a more general manner.

While some might contend that this was unfortunate, as it has left the door open to taxation of property, it can also be seen as a stroke of genius. Property rights are after all derived from our right to life. Without property in the form of land and capital, we are naked with no way of feeding ourselves, defenceless against any tyrant or even nature herself. There's therefore no need to hammer the property argument into a text about freedom.

Instead of repeating himself by including property along with life, Jefferson broadened the scope of his text by mentioning happiness. While property is of limited importance to many people, happiness isn't. The pursuit of happiness is our very reason for living. Even if we dedicate ourselves to higher goals than property and consumption, we do so in order to find meaning in life. Even the purest anti-materialist will agree with Jefferson. By referring to the pursuit of happiness rather than property, Jefferson was able to incorporate into his text the sentiment of every single person on the planet without loosing anything of substance.

Furthermore, the position that everyone has a right to pursue happiness is not pointless waffle. It's a profound statement because it implies limits as well as rights. No-one can pursue happiness at the expense of others. I have a right to pursue my happiness, and others have the same right for themselves. If my happiness depends on other people being miserable, I'm in error. When I do things in private, I can do whatever I want. But if I do things that involve others, it has to be done with their consent. The right to pursue happiness is therefore a variation on the golden rule.

Thomas Jefferson managed in this way to incorporate the essence of Christian doctrine into a secular document that everyone, including non-materialists, can agree on. Furthermore, by widening our rights from property to the pursuit of happiness, Jefferson encourages us to think carefully about our choices. Prosperity gained through capital and land is but one avenue to happiness. There are many other ways to live a meaningful life, and one thing doesn't exclude the other. We must therefore keep in mind what we really want in life. We must also look out for hindrances. We must value our happiness and protect it from irrational fears and anger as well as direct attacks from others.

Fear and anger are emotions that have a sad tendency to get in our way. Not only do these emotions contribute to our own misery when acted on irrationally. They contribute to the misery of others as well. To deny people their right to move freely or go so far as to destroy their livelihoods out of fear or anger is to violate other people's basic rights. When this is done irrationally, due to a harmless bug or some vague and unrelated injustice, it's nothing short of tyranny. Not only does such behaviour infringe on people's right to pursue their own happiness, it produces no lasting happiness in the angry and fearful mob. It's a giant waste of time for everyone involved.

Jefferson's words are strangely modern and eternal at the same time. It harks back to ancient religious wisdom about the good life being about private achievements, living within our means, and doing good deeds for others. To live fully and freely is about doing our own little thing at our own terms and within the constraints of nature.

Consumerism and living beyond our means is not a road to happiness. Happiness is not the same as property. A life constantly lived at the edge of disaster in the pursuit of property and pleasures is a road to misery. Without time for contemplation, relaxation and the enjoyment of little things, life is nothing but a rat race.

Obsessions with big achievements is another dead end. Fame, fortune and glory doesn't lead to lasting happiness. They are not goals in themselves. Like property, such things only have value when applied wisely. What matters is happiness. That is achieved more easily with a simple life of small routines than in a life of high finance and politics.

This is what I intend to teach my son in home schooling: We must remain loving, fearless, curious and enthusiastic about the world so that we are free to pursue happiness wherever we find it as soon as sufficient income and wealth is secured.

In this way, I hope to see my son join me as I forge ahead with my sustainable revolution towards liberty. By living the life we want for ourselves, and sharing this with others, we sow the seeds of change, both at the margins and in our midst. Do well for ourselves and others, and we'll see lasting changes for the better within our own circle of influence. This will in turn influence others. The network effect kicks in. It propagates the message farther afield. Soon enough, changes can be seen all over the globe.

There's much happiness to be had by being a part of such a positive force. Even if our own contributions are minuscule, the overall effect can be dramatic.

Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson

By Charles Willson Peale - Cropped version of Jefferson-peale.jpg, Public Domain, Link

Friday, September 11, 2020

Turning Paradoxes on Their Heads

Academia has a strange tendency to turn what's playful and fun into something dead serious. This is particularly clear when it comes to paradoxes. Instead of seeing them as fun ways to play around with logic to demonstrate the absurd conclusions that pure logic can yield, they are taken as dead serious exercises in philosophy. No longer can we laugh at the absurdity of something being both one thing and the other at one and the same time, we have to entertain the idea that this is in fact how thing are.

When Erwin Schrödinger demonstrated that the Copenhagen School of quantum mechanics had a serious flaw in its logic by noting that a cat cannot be both dead and alive at the same time, the response was not one of complete attrition by the Copenhagen School, but a declaration of victory of logic over intuition. Niels Bohr made the astonishing statement that what's going on at the atomic level is beyond comprehension, and can only be understood by the application of maths.

Paradoxes which were always meant to be dead ringers for flawed logic have mysteriously become the very opposite. They are now proof of the superiority of logic, which in turn has stopped theoretic science dead in its tracks. With nothing to hold us back from exploring dead ends, the amount of time wasted on flawed theories has been immense.

Photograph showing the head and shoulders of a man in a suit and tie
Niels Bohr

By The American Institute of Physics credits the photo [1] to AB Lagrelius & Westphal, which is the Swedish company used by the Nobel Foundation for most photos of its book series Les Prix Nobel. - Niels Bohr's Nobel Prize biography, from 1922, Public Domain, Link

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Cantillon's Trade Deficit

Richard Cantillon's book on political economy contains a number of thoughts on the subject of international trade. Many of these can shed light on the current state of the world, and what's happening behind the scenes as far as monetary policy is concerned.

Using gold as money, as was the norm back in Cantillon's days, he noted that a trade surplus would manifest itself as an influx of gold, as well as bank notes, bonds and other financial instruments convertible to gold. One way to detect a trade surplus was therefore to monitor gold refineries and mints. If foreign coins were melted down to mint domestic coins, that would indicate a trade surplus. On the other hand, if local refineries and mints were idle, that would indicate a balance of trade, or a trade deficit.

In a balanced environment, bank notes and bonds would serve as the dominant form of exchange. However, at the least sign of fiscal weakness, currencies would be dumped for the safety of gold. Mints and refineries, both local and foreign, were for this reason monitored closely by Cantillon and his banker friends. Once they realized that French bank notes were being dumped by foreigners, they started shorting them themselves, and they made an absolute fortune doing just that.

Fast forward 300 years and we find ourselves in a the bizarre world where bank notes are considered the ultimate safe haven, while gold is a mere commodity. When the UK exported a large amount of gold a year or two ago, this was registered as a trade surplus. They had after all exported a commodity in return for dollar denominated bonds and bank notes, so what would have been a big trade deficit back in Cantillon's days ended up as a surplus.

There's also a lot of puzzlement among bankers these days over the gap between China's trade surplus and their currency reserves. 100 billion dollars appear to be missing. But Cantillon and his friends would have had no trouble explaining this. They would have been reading reports from gold refineries all over the world and noted with interest that gold bars with their weight in ounces are melted down to produce gold bars with their weight in grams and kilograms. They would further have noted that gold is moving out of western countries and into eastern countries. From this, it's clear that a short position in western currencies relative to gold will be a winner over time. Furthermore, there's no puzzlement about the gap in China's official reserves. Gold reserves are rarely, if ever, reported honestly, least of all by nation states, so China is simply accumulating gold without reporting it.

Finally, Cantillon would have rolled over laughing if anyone had suggested to him that an unbaked paper currency like the US dollar is the ultimate safe haven. To even suggest such a thing displays great ignorance, and Cantillon would no doubt have made an additional fortune exploiting this widespread belief in society today.

Cumulative Current Account Balance.png
Cumulative Current Account Balance 1980 - 2008

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

The Intergalactic Trade Fair

Once upon a time in a not too distant future there will be an intergalactic trade fair held on planet Earth. The venue will be held on top of a mountain to facilitate easy access for aliens from all over the universe. However, the fair will be open for all and three brothers named Jay, Joe and Paul will hike up from a nearby town to attend it.

Half way up the mountain, the three brothers will stop to catch their breath. They will be able to see the trade show with its banners and bright lights at the peak in the distance, and Jay will be the first to speak:

"I'll get all the goodies for sure. I got a hundred thousand dollars in my pocket, and if they ask for more, I'll print up whatever more they ask for, because I'm a central banker. You two might as well go home right away, because you'll go home empty handed anyway. Whatever you got of money, I can always outbid you. They won't even bother to talk to you guys."

But this won't impress Joe. He'll respond like this:

"Hah, you don't know what you're talking about. I got a Bitcoin token in my pocket, and a thousand more Bitcoins in my online wallet. Unlike your dollars, no-one can print Bitcoin. They are scarce by design. That will impress the aliens for sure. It's me they'll talk to. I'm the one going home with all the goodies."

After this, Jay and Joe will turn to Peter. "What did you bring to trade with?" they'll ask, to which he'll let them know he brought a gold coin.

Jay and Joe will roll over with laughter. "You brought a pet rock? Don't you know that those aliens up there are super-intelligent beings, far more advanced than us. Why on Earth would they want to trade with you?"

Full of confidence, Jay and Joe will continue poking fun of Peter for the rest of their hike, and the two will go right up to the bouncer standing by the entrance to the fair. Jay will wave a thick wad of dollars in the air and Joe will hold up his brass token to underscore their serious intent. "Let us in!", they'll say. "We want to trade."

But the bouncer won't be impressed: "I see paper and a brass token. Why would anyone want to trade with you?"

Shocked and offended, Jay will explain who he is and how rich he is, and Joe will explain the virtues of scarce money. But no amount of arguing will convince the bouncer. The bouncer will insist on knowing what useful purpose their merchandise has apart from trade on planet Earth.

"This is an intergalactic trade fair. If you cannot explain what your paper and brass token can be used for on distant galaxies, you have no business here. I'm sorry, but I'll have to turn you away."

Fuming with rage and frustration, Jay and Joe will give up.

"Let's go home," they'll say while looking over at Peter. "If these aliens are so stupid as to refuse trade with the richest and brightest people on Earth, they're clearly not going to trade with you."

But the bouncer will ask to see what Peter brought, and on seeing his gold coin, the bouncer will light up with enthusiasm.

"Well, well, well. That's a gold coin if I'm not mistaken. Gold is used in industry all over the universe, and it's greatly coveted by the ladies. It's hard to find, and costly to extract. You'll have no trouble finding trading partners with a coin like that!"

And so it will pass that Jay and Joe will have to hike back down the mountain empty handed while Peter will ride home on his space age scooter, loaded with goods so fantastic that no-one can even start to imagine their beauty and value.

So remember this: If you ever go to an intergalactic trade fair, be sure to bring your pet rock.

GOODS South field.jpg
Intergalactic space

By ESA/Hubble, CC BY 4.0, Link