Sudden panic is a curious thing to see, especially in cases where the situation at hand was as easy to predict as it has been in Kabul. How was it that so many people lulled themselves into believing that things would continue as normal without direct support from the US military?
Deep down, everyone now in panic mode must have understood the consequences of what was happening. Otherwise, there would be no panic. But why was there such a delay between the announced retreat of US forces and the response in the general public? Why didn't people take more immediate action? Why this wait for reality to stare them in the eye before action is taken?
The answer to this can be found in the way lies fester in a society. The mechanism is simple and universal. It's also very dangerous, so it's worth a closer look. Taking Afghanistan as an example, we can imagine the events leading up to the current chaos.
The US decided to set up a loyal Afghan army, consisting of pro-western soldiers. A typical recruit would be someone with an interest in keeping the Status Quo. There would also be people volunteering simply for the pay. However, even the ones with the least conviction would tell everyone else that they are dedicated and ready to fight. When the major is asked to judge the morale of his troops, he gets the plain answer from his troops that they are highly motivated.
The major may know that there's a degree of deception in his troops' answer, but the official answer reflects well on him, so he reports that his troops are well motivated. He might add that some could do with a little more training and encouragement, but the overall morale of his troops are good.
The generals and intelligence officers get this feedback from every unit. They may find it all overly optimistic. But again, the feedback is so positive that even with a caveat, the overall picture looks robust. There's no way the Afghan army will be defeated for at least a year or two. The US can pull out all its troops, and the debacle, if it's ever to materialize, will happen long after the troops are gone. There will be no political blowback. The time delay between the US withdrawal and the eventual fall of Afghanistan to Taliban forces will be too long to be noticed by US voters.
This is all great news to the president of the US, who confidently proclaims that the withdrawal of US troops will be without adverse consequences. Why shouldn't he? This is a truth received from highest authority. Surely, his own intelligence services aren't lying.
The president is right. His intelligence services are telling him what they know from carefully collected data. The problem isn't that the intelligence services are lying. The problem is that their data is incorrect. The original respondents were all lying, and nobody caught this crucial point. Not even the Afghan soldiers themselves.
Each soldier in the Afghan army knows that they themselves are showing off, and pretending to be more motivated than they are. But they are comforted by the fact that everybody else seems at least as motivated as themselves. They might suspect that there's a bad apple here and there, but the overall morale is high, and this is what they tell their family and friends. There's also a lot of shiny new military equipment, and no lesser authority than the US president himself has told the world that the Afghan army is a major force, way stronger than Taliban.
But when push comes to shove, and fighting breaks out, there's disarray. Everyone was relying on everyone else to do the dangerous jobs. But no-one is leading the way. Everyone hunkers down, and they realize that everyone else is as poorly motivated as they are themselves, so they surrender.
There's disbelief in Kabul. Surely, this was a one off. There must have been unusually intense fighting. Let's wait and see what happens next.
But nothing improves, and there's all of a sudden a mad rush to get out. What could not happen is happening nevertheless. Reality was not what was presented on TV. Reality was the rumors that everyone ignored, and this realization strikes everybody more or less at the same time. All of a sudden, there's panic.
However, the Afghan army is not the only organization currently in the grip of delusion and self deception. There are clear signs of madness in Washington DC, and the financial markets are no less insane. This in turn, explains the level of delusion in the population at large. Everyone is lying to everyone else, so no-one knows for sure what's going on.
Those tuned into official channels are the most delusional, because many in these channels are themselves largely oblivious to their own delusion. News readers are vaccinated. They are also scared by what they learn from official sources. So they lean heavily towards pro-vaccine stories.
As for the financial markets, the most delusional are the ones taking the words of central bankers and politicians as truth. The ones tuned into official channels are again the dupes.
There will be a day of reckoning when all of these lies will be exposed, and the exit will be no more orderly than the one we're witnessing in Kabul. Panic will set in when it's too late.
To protect ourselves from this kind of delusion, we must listen to rumors, and look around for evidence contrary to the official narrative. How many people died in the pandemic? How much money has been printed since last year? How many do we know to have become seriously ill, despite being relatively young and fit? Where is the Dow/Gold ratio? Do we know anyone that got ill after taking the vaccine?
Never trust official sources over what we see and hear ourselves. Never trust anything that isn't honest and upright because truth is always compromised where ethics are lacking. Trust in Nature, aka God.
The unraveling of the Afghan army is an omen of things to come. We're about to meet God, and the only way to protect ourselves from what's coming is to be firmly on the side of reality. No amount of delusion and fakery can keep reality at bay. In fact, times of total delusion are signs of imminent collapse. Something spectacular is about to happen, and it won't be pretty. But those who have properly protected themselves will be able to watch in awe without too much fear.
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By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link
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