The Gap in the Daily Chart has now been Filled

Gold has made some crazy moves lately. Especially after a gap appeared in the daily chart some nine trading days ago.

We went from about $4,650 to $5,600 in a matter of five days, only to be hit by a three day sell off down to a low of $4,400.

This can all be explained, technically, in terms of the above mentioned gap.

The rule is that when a gap appears, it indicates speculative fever. What follows is unsustainable, and will always collapse down to below the gap. The gap will in other words be filled.

Once the gap is filled, we have support, and the rally can continue.

My prediction for the gold price is therefore that it will start producing a bullish base for a break out above $5,600.

There will be support at $4,650, and this support is likely to trend upwards.

This will take several months to form, so this is a good time to start accumulating gold. Buying gold at below $5,000 is likely to prove itself profitable by the end of this year.

Daily chart for gold up until 2/2 2026

Nine Year Cycles

Numerology has a fascination for the number nine. So, when a year is divisible by nine, they give it special significance. It is, according to this superstition, the end of a cycle. A year of completion, whereupon a new cycle starts.

So, 2025 is considered an important because it's divisible by nine. As it happens it's also divisible by nine times nine, which makes it even more significant.

Personal experience

This triggered my curiosity. Because it fits well with my own situation, as well as that of many of my nearest.

Going nine years back in time, I was in the process of selling my house in Asker, Norway. The money I made from this, I put into gold, which I have just started selling. My wife and I have just bought a house in Fermil de Basto, Portugal for some of the gold we purchased nine years ago.

Nine years before then, I had just started my move out of Norway. This move didn't fully complete before I sold my house in Asker.

Family and friends

My daughter in Norway has similarly bought a house in Bergen this year.

My oldest son in Norway has had something of a break through as a cameraman on film sets. He's gone from nine years of struggle to up and coming. Nine years into the future, he's likely to be well established.

My youngest son in Norway works for a company that has recently expanded. So, he's likely to see more responsibilities and better salaries.

My wife has, after nine years+ of struggle, established herself in the niche trade of machine knitting. She's seeing success both as a teacher and in sales of her products.

My stepdaughter has established herself as an interpreter in the EU parliament.

A friend of mine here in Porto has bought a house, and gotten married.

Politics

2025 marked the end of a bigger cycle that started nine times nine years ago. That would be 1944. The end of the second world war, and the start of the welfare state. An unsustainable system that is unlikely to last for much longer.

This coincides well with my sense that 2022 marked a turning point in politics. The chaos that we've seen over the last nine years are typical for the end of unsustainable systems. We're moving into a new era where people will rely less on the state. Most institutions introduced after 1944 will be gone within the next eight decades.

Super-cycles

Built into this logic, we have super-cycles that last 9^3 years. That is 729.

With year 1 being the height of the Roman empire, under emperor Augustus, we have a natural start to our cycles.

Year 729, although unremarkable in itself, is smack in the middle of the so called dark ages. The political structure is no longer that of empire. Instead, we had private kingdoms.

However, private kingdoms came to an end some 729 years later. By1458, the renaissance was in full swing. Private states changed into nation states. Taxation became systematic. The state went from being a private enterprise, often privately funded, to a powerful machinery of taxation, warfare, colonialism and corporate expansion.

This system is still in operation. But we are past its peak. The death of the welfare state is likely to take the nation state down with it. A new system will emerge. Most likely based on natural law and voluntary interactions between individuals.

The start of this new super-era will according to the super-cycle theory be year 2187. That is only two big cycles away. We can therefore expect the nation state to whither away over the next 162 years.

There will be an attempt to revive this dying system during this coming big cycle. There will also be a last ditch attempt to do so in the next big cycle. But the nation state will be as archaic in 2187 as Rome was in 729. Everybody will remember it, often fondly. But no-one will seriously try to revive it.

Vitality and strength

By Andrea del Castagno - The Yorck Project (2002) 10.000 Meisterwerke der Malerei (DVD-ROM), distributed by DIRECTMEDIA Publishing GmbH. ISBN: 3936122202., Public Domain, Link

Annual Status Update

Things are going to change at a brisker pace going forward, so I will update our status annually rather than biannually as has been my habit until now.

The change in pace is due to the house my wife and I bought in October. It requires refurbishment, which means that we're in the process of moving some of our gold into real-estate.

We have in other words started a process of rebalancing.

The following changes have taken place in the markets since my previous assessments:

The Dow/Gold ratio has declined, which means that gold has outperformed the Dow:

• Jan 2017 = 16.4
• Jan 2019 = 18.2
• Jan 2021 = 16.2
• Jan 2023 = 18.8
• Jan 2025 = 16.3
• Jan 2026 = 10.0

The PSI20/Gold ratio is also down, continuing its quarter century decline. It's currently standing at an all time low of 70.

Having rebalanced in October, we're now equally exposed to real-estate and gold:

• Jan 2017: 10 part real-estate, 20 part gold, 5 part cash - for a total of 35
• Jan 2019: 15 part real-estate, 20 part gold, 5 part cash - for a total of 40
• Jan 2021: 20 part real-estate, 30 part gold, 3 part cash - for a total of 53
• Jan 2023: 24 part real-estate, 33 part gold, 3 part cash - for a total of 60
• Jan 2025: 24 part real-estate, 40 part gold, 6 part cash - for a total of 70
• Jan 2026: 5 part real-estate, 5 part gold, 1 part cash - for a total of 11

Looking forward in time, we expect to see the following balance by this time next year:

• Jan 2027: 6 part real-estate, 5 part gold, 1 part cash - for a total of 12

The projected numbers are based on an assumption of higher real-estate and gold prices. But our shift from gold to real-estate will benefit our real-estate holdings at the expense of our gold holding.

British gold sovereign

By Benedetto Pistrucci - Own work, Public Domain, Link

Predictions for 2026

2025 is coming to an end, and it's time to make another assessment of previously made predictions, as well as a new set of predictions going forward.

Assessment of predictions made for 2024

My last full year prediction was made late 2023.

Much of it didn't come true in 2024. But by 2025, I've been proven right.

This is not the first time this has happened.

I keep making accurate predictions as far as events are concerned. My problem is that I keep thinking they are more imminent than they were.

So, I will draw out my timelines as I make predictions going forward.

The new era

My assessment of 2022, made back in early 2023, was that the so called Progressive era that started in 1913, has come to an end.

This assessment looks increasingly accurate. Progressive era institutions are devolving, and new doctrines are emerging.

This will almost certainly continue in the years ahead.

Devolving institutions:

• The WHO
• UN climate science
• NATO
• EU
• Western central banks
• Islam
• Socialist policies

Emerging institutions and doctrines:

• New Monroe doctrine (the "Donroe" doctrine)
• Gold back finance
• Russia-Chinese cooperation
• India
• Africa tilting East
• Christian renaissance
• Libertarian politics

Geopolitics

The US is in the process of pulling out of Europe. So, Europe will have to find its own way. The push is currently for continued hostilities towards Russia. But I won't think this will continue for long.

The war in Ukraine will end with Russian victory. The war in Gaza will end with Israel winning at the expense of its popularity. However, the US will continue to support Israel.

With the EU in decline, European nations will go their own way. They will choose cooperation and trade with Russia over armed conflict.

Africa will see US interfere in regions where militant Islam is active. The Russians will be active in the Sahel, where they will keep France out. China will also expand their influence.

The net result will not be proxy wars, but peace and economic growth.

South America will continue to tilt towards libertarian doctrines, led by Argentina. The result will be economic growth followed by population growth.

India and China will continue their growth. This may result in more tensions. But here too, peace will prevail.

Health

Common sense health is currently replacing institutional health.

This will result in improved health, especially in the US, as predicted back in May.

Price inflation

Gold went up a whopping 50% this year It's currently trading at $4,500, which is more than 100%.

This means that we have blown past the two technical limits at $3,000 and $4,000, found in the long chart.

It also means that we're headed for hyper-inflation. Because the gold price is a reliable early indicator of monetary weakness.

Western central banks are in decline, and the only way out is a gold based standard.

Price inflation will be high by end 2026, but probably not into extremes.

As a consequence, some gold based alternative will establish visibility. There will be some early adaption.

This new money will either come reluctantly from the public sector, or it will emerge from the private sector due to market demand.

Popular politics

Trump has introduced a new type of politics that is confusing his opponents.

It consists of a combination of trolling and real-politics. While his opponents get hung up in his trolling, real changes are made to the global order.

This makes it look like socialism and Islam is making a comeback. However, the opposite is true. Conservative and libertarian forces are getting stronger.

Christians are turning away from controlled institutions, which makes it look like this religion is in decline. But we're merely seeing a shift away from institutions. There's even a an awakening going on.

This trend has only started.

Demographics

This is another long term trend that is largely misunderstood.

There are, within all nations, a considerable subgroup that reproduces above sustainability. So, it is incorrect to linearly expand the current population decline.

What is in fact going on is that the anti-population groups within nations are going extinct.

The pro-population groups, on the other hand, are growing.

The pro-population consists of conservatives, libertarians and Christians. So, the future will turn increasingly towards these ideologies. However, it will take years before this trend becomes obvious.

Education

With conservatives, libertarians and Christians in the ascent, education will turn away from socialism and anti-population doctrines such as climate hysteria and the like.

This too will emerge slowly at first, before becoming obvious some years down the line.

Conclusion

2026 will be marked by continuing chaos. However, patterns will start to emerge. The new era is taking shape.

Quarterly performance of gold up until 2026

$ 110,000 Bitcoin

Something odd happened at the peak of Bitcoin mania back in 2017. All of a sudden, all financial papers replaced their gold tickers with Bitcoin tickers. It was not a case of one or two papers doing this. Every mainstream paper did this in unison.

Never mind that the Bitcoin market is a feather-weight relative to the gold market, and Bitcoin has no strategic importance in global politics. Everyone was suddenly rooting for Bitcoin while hiding gold from view.

Search interest for Bitcoin, gold and silver

Predictably, search interest for Bitcoin went parabolic, with small investors drawn into the casino as a consequence.

The spike in interest peaked out just as the price of Bitcoin reached its 2017 peak:

Price  of Bitcoin

What followed was a price collapse, and it wasn't before the pandemic of 2020 that the price of Bitcoin made another peak. People were locked at home with little to do but gamble with their government handouts.

Then, as Covid restrictions were lifted, there was another price collapse that lasted until a new price pump started in 2024, which has sent the price of Bitcoin soaring to new heights for no good reasons at all.

As of writing, the price of Bitcoin has reached a new all time high of $ 110,000. However, Bitcoin hasn't outperformed gold this year. It's up 15% while gold is up 28%. Yet, new Bitcoin highs get covered on TV, while new highs in the price of gold get but an anecdotal mention in financial papers.

The situation for Bitcoin is strange, because it's reaching new highs despite less search interest on Google. Bitcoin isn't going up because of more interest. It's going up despite less interest, and this is happening in the context of main stream media enthusiasm.

What makes this even stranger is that gold has had an important role in finance and geopolitics since the dawn of history, while Bitcoin has no such function. Why then has a unison media decided to promote this newcomer while at the same time hiding the heavyweight old-timer?

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

$ 3,000 Gold

Gold has been trading well above $ 3,000 since last quarter, which means that my prediction from late 2023 came true, even if late by a few months. However, 2023 wasn't the first time I mentioned this target. My first prediction dates back to January 2021. That's more than four years ago, so even thought I was right in the end, my call for $ 3,000 was a little too early to be impressive, or even noteworthy.

But now that the target has been reached, it remains to be seen if we'll be stuck in a sideways pattern for a while as predicted back in 2021. So far, new all time highs have eluded us. But will this persist for months on end? Only time will tell. As of now, nothing significant can be read out of the chart as to gold's next big move, and we can therefore assume that it won't be doing much for quite some time still.

Quarterly performance of gold up until May 2025

A Bug Out Plan

Porto went dark this Monday, 11:35 local time, and lights were not back up before ten hours later. Within a few hours, telephone and internet networks went down as well, and some areas didn't have any water towards the end of that period. Had the blackout lasted another ten hours, things would most definitely have looked pretty bleak, and my family and I would have found ourselves stuck in the chaos.

Clearly, we were totally unprepared for what happened. A bug out plan cannot be made after the fact. It has to be prepared in advance.

First thing to understand is that the only safe place in case of a prolonged blackout is a place with its own water and electricity. It's therefore essential that our plan includes such a place. I don't own such a place, but I have a friend who owns an off grid house fairly close to Porto so I plan to ask him for an option on staying there in case of an emergency.

Secondly, we should have enough petrol in our car to get to our bug out place without having to stop for petrol. Our car should always have at least half a tank of petrol. Whenever the tank nears half empty, we fill it up completely.

Finally, we need to have enough cash in the house to get us through a week without electronic payments.

None of this is expensive to put in place, but it may mean the difference between misery and relative comfort in case of an emergency. As they say, it's better to be safe than sorry.

Cottage

By Valtov at fi:wikipedia - Originally from fi:wikipedia, Public Domain, Link

Controlled Opposition Confirmed

The USAID scandal that is currently unfolding has revealed that the controlled opposition that I first wrote about back in 2019 is a real thing, and it's worse than I thought possible. News media all over the world has been centrally coordinated and controlled through a network of NGOs, all funded by USAID and other government charities.

This explains why news stories across the globe have had an eerie tendency to look identical. It explains the "spontaneous" appearance of climate activists, color revolutions, and scary virus stories. Everything has been fake, and it has all been funded by tax money.

The government, always eager to expand its own power, has constructed an elaborate PR system that feeds us stories about "popular demand" for things they want to do to us. Lockdowns were introduced through this kind of popular demand, as was mask mandates and the the rapid development of novel mRNA vaccines.

Everything climate related has also been manufactured. The science is fake, the remedies are fake, and the popular demand for it has been constructed through propaganda. The same goes for all the wars we've been funding.

All of this had nothing to do with, truth, reality, freedom or peace. The sole purpose of it has been to make a small group of people, well connected to the government, immensely rich at the expense of everybody else. That's why everything manufactured to remedy all these manufactured wars and emergencies has been such expensive crap.

It explains why Greta Thunberg got as much press coverage as she did, while others who tried the same got no attention at all. Greta's parents were insiders in the propaganda machine. Others, less well connected, were simply gullible copy cats. They were true believers in the propaganda, and their reward for believing in it was misery and disrespect.

We have lived inside a manufactured reality, similar to the one depicted in the Truman Show. Everything is fake.

But now that the lid has been blown open on this can of worms, reality is once again visible through  the mist of propaganda, and it will be difficult, if not impossible, to put the lid back on.

This in turn explains why gold is going up these days. With reality now creeping in, anything artificial is likely to crumble, and the only safe havens are real things, preferably real things that we can hold in our hands.

Controlled opposition

By Julia Hawkins - https://www.flickr.com/photos/8716204@N06/45009830075/, CC BY 2.0, Link

Lessons from El Salvador and Argentina

South America has for as long as I can remember been associated with violence. It's a cultural thing, I was told. But this "truth" has recently been challenged. El Salvador, which used to be one of the most dangerous places on the planet has suddenly become perfectly safe. All it took was for its president to enact strict laws related to violent crime.

Another "truth" that has been shattered lately is the hopelessly corrupt nature of South American politics. This too has been attributed to culture. But Argentina has eliminated a lot of corruption in a matter of months simply by ridding itself of bureaucracy. What used to be a South American basket case has become an example to follow.

What's most remarkable about this is the speed with which the changes happened. Problems that had existed for decades were resolved in a matter of months. Clearly, this had nothing to do with culture. All that was required was the will to do things differently.

This is especially interesting in light of the slow decay of the West which has been touted as an inevitable consequence of post-colonialism. Parts of Paris, Stockholm, London and many other cities across Europe have decayed into no-go zones reminiscent of third world countries, and we've been told that there's nothing we can do to stop this. However, El Salvador and Argentina prove that this is a lie. Europe can be cleaned up in a matter of months if only the right people are put in charge.

What we've seen over the decades in Europe, and the US, is a slow erosion of liberties and confidence. Decay has been accepted as inevitable, and our just reward for misdeeds dating back to colonial times. But this process has continued to a point where its reversal will be swift if it's given a chance.

If a radical change is allowed to happen, people will be absolutely delighted by the contrast, and those in charge of the old policies that brought so many to their knees will be permanently ousted as a consequence. No-one will want to go back to how things were before the "revolution".

The decay of the West has happened so slowly that people have lost sight of how good things could be if it wasn't for the meddling of mischievous and corrupt politicians and bureaucrats. But a reversal will clear this up in no time. People will see how good liberty and safety from violent criminals is, and they will want more of it.

As I have stated several times before, 2022 was the year that the trend turned, and we're now starting to see the political consequences of this. Radical changes are ahead of us, and most of it will be of a kind that we'll all be happy to see.

Execution of Robespierre

By Unknown author - This image comes from Gallica Digital Library and is available under the digital ID btv1b6950750j, Public Domain, Link

Pharmakeia

Pharmakeia, also known as sorcery or witchcraft is a practice that aims to deceive and control others by the use of medicine and hypnosis.

The Bible warns about this practice. We should neither practice it ourselves nor let ourselves be fooled by it. However, recent history has shown us that almost everyone fell for the spell cast by the elite, and they nearly managed to enslaving us.

Even the most skeptical is in some way affected by pharmakeia, because we all hold various believes that are poorly founded in reality, but heavily pushed by the school system, the media and the elite. However, many are waking up from their hypnosis. We're seeing a return to nature, aka God's creation.

A distinguishing property of pharmakeia is that it seeks to emulate or replicate nature. Instead of real money, i.e. gold, we use fiat, a type of money substitute that robs us in our sleep through inflation. Instead of healthy food, we eat synthetic alternatives, often augmented with artificial supplements, and medicines.

Natural foods like butter are replaced with artificial alternatives like margarine.

We're told that vaccines have made us all healthier, but child mortality is higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. In the US, Amish children are the healthiest. They take no vaccine at all.

When things go amiss, and we fall ill, we beg for more medicines. But they too make us ill.

Similarly, people buy Bitcoin in order to avoid the fiat trap, not realizing that Bitcoin too is a form of pharmakeia. It's an electronic token that has been ascribed a price. Monetary value has been assigned to something that has no physical representation.

Then there's AI where dead things are given a spirit of sorts. Unlike a calculator, which is merely a calculating tool, or a car which gets us places, we're now to believe that an AI vehicle, commonly referred to as a robot, is something with a soul.

None of this will last. Nature will reject it all. While we may have safe, self driving cars in the future, we will never prosper under pharmakeia. An AI girlfriend is not a girlfriend, a vaccine is not an improvement on our immune system, Bitcoin is no alternative to gold, and margarine is no alternative to butter.

Stay real!

Every other path leads to ruin.

Mask of the beast

Fertility Rates in Argentina

Fertility rates have been going down all over the world, and I've speculated that this is due to socialist policies, because socialism leads us into thinking that someone else's children will take care of us when we grow old. We're told to pay taxes now so that we'll be well provided for in the future. Having children becomes in this way more expensive relative to our net income, and those who trust in the government figure they can skip the extra cost of having children and rely on the promised pensions instead.

If this is true, Argentina should see increased fertility rates pretty soon due to its dismantling of the welfare state. We have a test case for our hypothesis.

Fertility rates in Argentina

Predictions for 2024

It looks like my observation a year ago has been confirmed. 2022 was a turning point and the start of a new era. Peak booster, peak Pride, peak Ukraine and peak global warming is behind us, and a new direction in politics and the economy has commenced.

This has not yet been fully realized by the elite. But I suspect that 2024 will be the year that the disaster, in their eyes, becomes apparent. There will be a push back, and this will lead to division and strife. However, they will not succeed. The tide has permanently changed.

The elites of the West are in for a rude awakening. The war in Ukraine will be revealed for the disaster that it is. Most likely, we'll see a collapse of the Ukraine army, with the Russians suddenly free to march on Kiev and other major cities. The Russians will demand far more than they did back in 2022, and the West will have no option but to sign whatever peace deal they are dealt.

The war in Gaza will also come to an end. It will be a victory of sorts for Israel. But the mess they've created will be near impossible to clean up. In the end, they'll have to invite Egypt in to help them sort things out. However, the rest of the world will by then have permanently changed their views on Israel and the West.

Trust in the dollar and Western technology has been eroded, and we'll see inflation and gold take off in a big way as a consequence. Once gold settles above $2,100, we'll see its price quickly move to $3,000. This follows from the fundamentals, and also technical analysis. Gold may well go up a whopping 50% relative to the dollar in 2024.

The stock market, and real-estate prices are not going to do nearly as well as gold. At best, they'll stay flat in nominal terms. At worst, they'll tank dramatically. Those invested in gold may see an opportunity to roll into real-estate or stocks in 2025. But in the meantime, we'll stay with our positions unchanged.

Quarterly performance of gold up until Dec. 2023

PSI20 Performance and Outlook

The PSI20 has appreciated by 11% this year while gold has appreciated by 9%. The difference is so small that nothing has been lost in not investing in the PSI.

Looking at the components of the PSI, it looks that a portfolio made up of these would only have appreciated 4%. I'm not sure why there's a discrepancy between the index and the components, but the difference is probably due to weighting. However, it's clear that my portfolio made up of PSI's components would have underperformed gold.

With the economy looking increasingly grim, there's no need to rush into the PSI. Adding to this sentiment is the fact that every component has a sell rating by the Trading Economics web site.

Here's an overview of what the components are, and how they performed this past year:

• EDP Renovaveis | EDPR - Spain-based company active in the renewable energy sector.
  Market cap = €18.73B (€21.03B)
• EDP | EDP - Portugal-based utility company.
  Market cap = €18.85 (€17.99B)
• Jeronimo Martins | JMT - Portugal-based company engaged in the food retail sector.
  Market cap = €14.52 (€13.45B)
• Galp | GALP - Portugal-based holding company engaged in the oil and gas industry.
  Market cap = €10.22 (€9.34B)
• Navigator | PTI - Portugal-based company primarily engaged in the paper manufacturing operations.
  Market cap = €2.55 (€2.76B)
• BCP | BCP - Portugal-based privately owned bank.
  Market cap = €4.12 (€2.24B)
• NOS | NOS - Portugal-based company engaged in the broadcasting and telecommunication industry.
  Market cap = €1.65 (€1.96B)
• Sonae | SON - Portugal-based holding company primarily engaged in the retail trade of food.
  Market cap = €1.75 (€1.84B)
• REN | RENE - Portugal-based holding company involved in the energy sector.
  Market cap = €1.55 (€1.7B)
• Corticeira Amorim | COR - Portugal-based holding company engaged in the cork industry.
  Market cap = €1.21 (€1.18B)
• Semapa | SEM - Portugal-based holding company engaged in three business segments: Paper and Pulp; Cement and Derivatives, and Environment.
  Market cap = €1.07 (€1.13B)
• Altri | ALTR - Portugal-based holding company primarily involved in the production of bleached paper pulp from eucalyptus.
  Market cap = €0.96 (€1.11B)
• CTT | CTT - Portugal-based company principally engaged in the provision of courier services.
  Market cap = €0.49 (€0.47B)
• Mota Engil | EGL - Portugal-based company primarily engaged in the construction industry.
  Market cap = €1.18 (€0.33B)
• Ibersol | IBS - Portugal-based company primarily engaged in the operation of restaurants.
  Market cap = €0.28 (€0.24B)
• F Ramada Investimentos | RAM - Portugal-based holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of steel products and storage systems.
  Market cap = €0.17 (€0.17B)
• Novabase | NBA - Portugal-based company active in the provision of information technology (IT) solutions.
  Market cap = €0.14 (€0.12B)
• Pharol | PHR - formerly Portugal Telecom, SGPS, S.A., is an open company.
  Market cap = €0.03 (€0.05B)

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Taking Ownership of the Anarchist Brand

In a previous post, I suggested that we should embrace the right wing label put on libertarians such as Javier Milei. The reason for this is that it will clear up some confusion regarding the political axis. With Milei clearly a small state proponent, the left becomes equally clearly a big state thing. Nazis, were big state proponents, so they end up next to Lenin, and not to the right of conservatives where they are currently positions by political pundits.

This in turn, makes it clear that all anarchists are located to the right on the political axis, because anarchists are by definition believers in a stateless society. No-one can be both left wing and anarchist at the same time. Anarcho-Communism becomes an oxymoron.

Some may object to this analysis and claim that some non-capitalist anarchy is possible, and that may well be so. But such an arrangement will necessarily have to be stateless in order to call itself anarchy, and that means that there can be no centralized monopoly on force anywhere. There can be no rulers. If the system implies that some group of people has monopoly power on force, it's not anarchy it's a state.

In the absence of a state, Anarcho-Capitalism becomes the default, because it's the only system that replaces all centralized institutions with private entities, operating in a free market, and with no one actor wielding monopoly power on the use of force.

The only real anarchism is Anarcho-Capitalism in its various flavours, such as Voluntarims and Private Law Society. In other words, we can refer to ourselves simply as anarchists. The anarchist brand is ours.

The political axis

Will We See Gold at $ 2,100 per Ounce Before Year End?

Gold has had a good fourth quarter, with a move from $ 1,820 to $ 2,070 so far. But will we break above $ 2,100 before the end of the year? Only time will tell, but there are good reasons to be optimistic.

Central banks are continuing their gold purchases in order to avoid the US dollar. Geopolitical instability makes it important to go away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, especially if there's a chance that the US will become the adversary in a future conflict.

On a technical note, we've seen the highest monthly close ever in November, and the highest weekly close ever on Friday. Gold even traded above its highest price ever for a while in the Friday session. All of this may bring out enough buyers to prevent the gold price from reacting down from current levels, as has happened three times before in the past two years.

Once gold breaks above $ 2,100, we're likely to see $ 3,000 within two years. If it doesn't, we'll have some more time to accumulate gold at current prices.

Quarterly performance of gold since 1997

Nature, aka God

I've come to the conclusion that nature must have a will of sorts, and I think that it's this will that is referred to as God by religious people. The reasoning behind this is simple:

The majority of us believe that we are more than mere automatic machines. We have a will, and we use this to change and direct outcomes in the world around us. But if we study physics, we find no will anywhere. Everything is a mix of mechanics and uncertainty, none of which constitutes will. The free will that we've been endowed with must therefore come from somewhere outside of physics. Nature cannot be mere mechanics. It must also contain a will.

This is not mere semantics, because it comes with some interesting consequences that I allude to in my political thinking. On the one hand we have that which is man made, and on the other hand we have that which is natural. However, only that which is natural can be fully trusted, and this is the central theme in both Christian doctrine and Anarchism.

A consequence of this is that we must trust natures own money, namely gold and silver, over man made money such as fiat and crypto. We must trust our natural immune system over vaccines. We must trust natural ingredients over processed foods. All man made institutions and doctrines should be viewed with suspicion. Family and friends, and neighbours and community, are natural. Tax collectors and bureaucrats are not.

Man made institutions may at times seem immensely powerful. But history has shown us that they are not indestructible. Not a single one has ever stood the test of time. Only God's own creations remain with us.

However, some people frown at the idea of God, so when I want to refer to my view of things, I use the expression Nature, aka God. A purist may say that God and Nature are not in fact synonymous because God created Nature. Nature as we experience it is God and His creation working together. But this type of pedantry isn't something I'm going to get hung up in. I'll stick with Nature, aka God, whenever I want to refer to the will of the universe that no-one can stand against.

Creation of Adam

By Michelangelo - See below., Public Domain, Link

Tearing Down the Nazi Wall

Javier Milei's victory in Argentina has the potential to blast open the so called Overton Window which has for decades limited political discourse by the fact that Nazis were branded as right wing after the Second World War.

This can be illustrated by presenting the following diagram of the typical left-right political axis.

Overton Window in politics

By placing Nazis to the right of conservatives, the political left managed to silence almost all political discussions taking place to the right of conservatives. No-one wants to be associated with Nazis, and if Nazis are right wing, then Libertarians must be extreme right wing, and Ancaps must be ultra extreme right wing. That doesn't sound good.

One way to avoid this problem has been to claim that Libertarians and Ancaps are not on this axis at all. But that only serves to further exclude them. It's much better in my mind to stick with the simple left-right axis, and simply remove the Nazi label.

Left-right axis in politics

To bolster this position, we add a graph of how much state involvement there is in the economy. This keeps the Nazis label from coming back into our chart because the Nazis were big believers in state involvement in the economy. If anyone insists on us putting the label back in, we'll point out that from an economic viewpoint, Nazis properly belong in between Communists and Social Democrats.

Having gotten rid of the Nazi label, we can put various politicians into our chart.

Political positions

Importantly, we don't put Hitler into this chart because that would reintroduce the Nazi label. Instead, we put Putin where most people would've put Hitler. No-one will object to this because most people equate Putin with Hitler, and those who object to the Putin=Hitler label see Putin as someone positioned somewhere between Conservatives and Libertarians.

With the Nazi wall now torn down, and with no mention of Nazis or Hitler, we suddenly have a much wider Overton Window. The centre in politics is no longer Social Democrats. It's located to the right of Conservatives. Libertarians are no longer extreme right wing. They are right leaning. It's the Ancaps that are right wing.

By doing this, we no longer need to talk about extremes in politics. We have wings instead. Communists are left wing. Ancaps are right wing. Everyone else is located left or right of a Conservative-Libertarian centre.

Interest Rates as Drivers of Change

It looks increasingly likely that 2022 will go down in history as the year when the progressive era came to an end. We've seen peak Pride, peak save the planet, peak virus hysteria, peak trust in experts. From now on, all of this will be rolled back.

It also looks like 2022 was the year the bond bull market came to an end. Interest rates, which have fallen steadily since 1981 are once again headed upwards.

This is no coincidence. Rather, the two phenomena are closely related. Low interest rates are a sign of trust in the system. Low interest rates are also necessary in order to finance expert driven social experiments. Sustainable energy, lockdowns and global vaccination campaigns all required cheap credit.

Once trust in the system unravel, interest rates move up and expert driven projects become impossible to sustain. This exposes the impotence of experts which in turn leads to even higher interest rates.

Bond markets move in mega cycles that last for decades, and this new bear market is likely to be no different. Interest rates will continue to rise until a new system has been erected. The progressive era must be fully flushed out, and a new system must be embraced by a majority of people. Only then will interest rates once again go lower.

Cityscape

Economic Calculations in Times of War

It takes a lot of  money to wage a war, so much in fact that taxation alone is rarely enough to fund them. That's why almost all wars are financed through monetary inflation. Instead of taxing us directly, we're taxed by inflation. The purchasing power of our money is taken away through an expansion of the money supply. The extra money is used to finance the war at our expense.

Monetary inflation is especially effective when it's done as a sudden shift from sound money, because people don't immediately realize what's going on. This gives the state an advantage in that it can acquire resources at advantageous prices. It's only later that the population at large catches onto the scam. This causes a delay between the money printing and the price inflation caused by money printing.

World War I is an example of a war financed through inflation, where the states involved went from sound money to inflated money. The transition happened around 1913, but it wasn't before 1920 that we started to see run away price inflation, and hyperinflation hit Germany in 1923, almost a decade after the war started, and half a decade after the war had ended.

This meant that the warring states could make economic calculations based on pre-war prices throughout the war. No special attention needed to be given to the effect of monetary inflation because that effect only hit after the war was over. However, had price inflation already been a problem at the start of the war, economic planning would have been a lot harder.

Now that the world is once again at a war footing, we're already on inflation money, and price inflation is already a thing. This means that any further expansion of the money supply is likely to cause higher prices almost immediately. The resources required by the state in order to wage war will become very expensive. They may even become unavailable.

As it turns out, western states do not in fact possess the resources required to wage and win wars. The West is already low on ammunition, and the factories required to replace them aren't nearly as productive as they need to be. A lot of resources will be required to put this right. The West must build factories, man the factories with skilled labour, and feed the factories with raw materials. But none of this is available. This is because the real savings of the West are insufficient to wage a war.

Real saving are the things of value that back up the financial system. Factories are real savings. So are farms, mines, warehouses, ships and trucks. Money is merely a way to represent this. But this representation is only valid if the money is sound. If the money is inflated into existence, the added wealth is only apparent. Real savings don't change because someone prints a lot of new dollar bills.

It appears then that the western elite has made a blunder. They have assumed that inflated money can get them just as much resources as sound money would, and that they are in a position to wage and win wars everywhere due to their ability to print limitless money. But they have failed to incorporate real savings into their calculations, and this is only now starting to dawn on the people in charge of the war machinery.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link

Natural Cycles

The political elite likes to think of their subjects as robots. This is evident from how they structure society. Even long after the factory line was a common work destination for many of us, schools still operate according to this formula, bosses require our physical presence at the office, and we're only given a few days off at predetermined times of the year.

None of this is natural. Most of us are typically more inclined to focus on labour during fall and spring than we are during summer and winter. Deep down, we follow an agrarian cycle. Spring is for setting things up for summer. Fall is for getting in the harvest. Winter is for rest and indoor activities, and summer if for being out and about.

One thing I noticed about life in Norway when I lived there was the almost unbearable pain of having to force myself out into the cold and dark of winter in order to go to school and work. Staying chained to a desk during summer was equally painful.

When I ended up unemployed for about a year, all that anguish disappeared, and I just knew I had to find a way out of the system. That was around 2004. By 2011, I made my decision to end my professional career. By 2017, I was fully out of the system. Today, I thank my lucky star for having managed to get out of the system, and I'm determined to help my children achieve the same level of autonomy.

My wife is similarly determined to take control of her life, so it was no surprise to me that she kept our son home from school today. She didn't feel like sending him away in the rain. We're ignoring the system as much as we can. The experts can say what they please. We do things our way, and we're not alone. The progressive era has come to an end. People are tired of having to ask for permission.

Fireside education

By Transferred from en.wikibooks to Commons by Adrignola using CommonsHelper. Originally uploaded to en:Wikipedia in November 2006 (log) by Darentig (talk)., Public Domain, Link