Thursday, December 31, 2020

Love and Kindness

One of the ways the devil operates is by constantly changing the meaning of words, thereby rendering ancient knowledge difficult to understand. Ideas get twisted, and the message lost. Original sin is but one such confusion. In its original form, it's a message of hope. Now, it's mainly seen as a form of defeatism, both by Christians and anti-Christians, due to our new interpretation of the word sin.

A similar misconception has crept in when it comes to the word love. It has lost much of its original meaning, and is now largely understood as either kindness or eroticism, depending on the situation. However, love is neither kindness nor sexuality. It's enthusiasm and appreciation. That's why we can love things and actions as well as people.

An act of love is different from an act of kindness. When we act out of love towards people, we're not necessarily kind. The guiding principle is not kindness, but the golden rule. We act the way we want others to act towards us in similar situations. If somebody steals something from us, we go after them, and they better have a good excuse if caught. Conversely, we neither expect nor want people to be kind to us if we do something selfish or mean.

Loving people are predictable and honest. They are firm and strong in face of adversity. They don't respond with kindness when people do them wrong. They respond firmly and predictably in accordance to the golden rule, and therein lies the difference between love and kindness.

Andrea del Castagno 004.jpg
Vitality and strength

By Andrea del Castagno - The Yorck Project (2002) 10.000 Meisterwerke der Malerei (DVD-ROM), distributed by DIRECTMEDIA Publishing GmbH. ISBN: 3936122202., Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Taking the Vaccine

The numbers have been in for a while now, and it appears that the flu shot being pushed so enthusiastically these days has a 2.5% chance of making us ill. That's a high number considering the low risk of getting seriously ill from the flu itself. So high in fact that the benefits of the shot don't seem to outweigh the risks and uncertainties.

The right thing to do in light of these early findings would be to abandon the vaccination program. However, our moral betters in politics and the media have a different idea. They seem more inclined to push all sorts of laws and regulations that would make it virtually impossible to operate freely without up to date vaccination papers. Such hurdles will push the balance of the cost benefit analysis towards taking the vaccine, thereby making it popular despite its less than optimal track record.

Going forward, we'll see a swell in restrictions and regulations related to the flu shot, and many of us will feel that we have no choice but to take it, just like we feel we have no choice but to pay taxes. The 2.5% chance of getting ill seems less problematic in light of the hurdles put in our way. This is similar to how taxation seems reasonable in light of potential imprisonment, asset confiscation and fines. But this doesn't mean that we should simply bow our heads and submit. We can still make the process as expensive as possible.

There's no point in being rude or angry with anybody, especially if this can lead to fees and fines. Instead, we can do a bit of simple acting. Health personnel rely heavily on what we tell them and must act on this information. We can therefore tell them that we're feeling a little sick first thing after getting the shot. After sitting 10 minutes under observation, we can tell them that we're still feeling ill. They will then have to put us up in a place for observation. If they send us home with a number to call, we can call the number and tell them we're feeling sick.

No special acting skills are required for this. There's a bit of hazel on our part, but the cost inflicted on the system is greater. If we do it right, we may even be rewarded for our efforts. We could end up with a permanent exemption from future vaccinations, and there might be some subsidies along the way in terms of sick leave. All it takes is a bit of lying. The rest follows directly from the system itself, which rewards the difficult ones at the expense of the easy ones.

Alternatively, if we absolutely don't want to take the shot, we can rely on a bit of persuasion. We can find someone willing to issue the required papers without the shot actually being given. A little bit of asking around is probably all it takes to find such a doctor. There may be a fee involved to the benefit of the doctor. Some money may have to be paid, but that may well be worth the cost, considering the risk of serious illness and death.

Smallpox vaccine.jpg
Smallpox vaccine

By Photo Credit: James Gathany Content Providers(s): CDC - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #2674. Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers. Deutsch | English | македонски | slovenščina | +/−, Public Domain, Link

Monday, December 28, 2020

The Price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin keeps making new highs. Currently priced at $27,000, it's up a staggering 50% since I predicted it's imminent decline a few weeks back, illustrating how difficult it is to time the peak of a bubble. However, there's no doubt that Bitcoin is a bubble that will one day collapse to zero. It can at best be used in transactions, but its price is so unstable that it's hard to use even for this. It can certainly not be used as a unit of account. No-one in their right mind would write a contract in Bitcoin, because there's no way to know where it may be priced in the future. It has been priced at $3,000 and $28,000 all within two years. Who knows what its price may be in a few years from now?

This level of price instability only exists in the ream of ideas. Tangible assets don't jump about in price like Bitcoin because the realm of things have a relatively stable hierarchy of value. We value things relative to each other. A silver coin is valued relative to bread, milk and eggs in a way that is much more stable than an idea can ever be relative to the same things. This is why money must be a commodity good, and why the current experiment in using an unbacked US dollar as a measure of value is doomed to failure.

The irony in this is that the current Bitcoin hype is based on the idea that the US dollar is doomed. But instead of pointing to the fundamental problem of tying ideas up to things, all attention is focused on monetary debasement through inflation. It's claimed that the limited number of Bitcoins in the world makes it valuable. However, there are all sorts of things in the world that are limited in number without having any value. Shares in bankrupt companies are limited, but that doesn't give these shares any value. Real world value requires real world utility. Assets must be useful in some way, either as goods in themselves or as things capable of generating goods, with goods being either things or services.

This is where the logic of Bitcoin breaks down. It's of very limited utility, and hence extremely volatile in price. This in turn makes it impossible to use Bitcoin as money. Contracts will have to be written against a more stable asset, with gold being the obvious alternative. Gold checks all the boxes as far as money is concerned, so it is gold that will be used once the current experiment in unbacked currencies comes to an end. Contracts will be written against gold, including future contracts for Bitcoin. But what's the point in buying Bitcoin with gold? Gold can be used in electronic transactions. There's no need for Bitcoin. If the current hype in Bitcoin is due to a belief that Bitcoin will replace the dollar, what happens to its price once it's clear that gold is the natural winner due to its history, utility, and stability?

Bitcoin is an energy consuming liability to the Bitcoin community as a whole. There are bills to be paid. Without newcomers, the holders will have to pay. If they don't pay, the network shuts down, and all is lost. There is therefore justification in the assertion that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme in constant need of newcomers.

Furthermore, the current price action in Bitcoin is not indicative of any increase in value. Price and value are not the same thing, and for something that aspires to be money, price volatility is the very opposite of value. The more it fluctuates in price, the less it's worth as money.

Casascius coin.jpg
Brass token currently priced at about $27,000

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

The Tiffany Dover Hoax

The state is an organization constantly at war with itself. This has been known since biblical times, and the best way to deal with this is to keep the state at a distance. However, the state is powerless without people engaging in strife and bickering. Without the general public taking sides in the internal battles of the state, there's very little room for power to grow. With people ignoring the state altogether, the state ceases to exist. It is therefore of utmost importance to the state that there's a handful of more or less believable events over which people can take sides.

Conspiracies are a tool of the state. The reason Area 51 remains closed to the public is that it's in the interest of the state to keep people in the dark about what's there. It's a convenient conspiracy that plays into the hands of the state. Climate change is another dubious science that the state loves, not only because it is a perfect excuse for corporate expansion, it's also something that divides people into groups. On a lesser note, we can mention public schools as a convenient conspiracy. It gives the state power over children while at the same time dividing parents as to what these schools should or should not teach.

The list of conspiracies and associated hoaxes is long. It includes the Covid pandemic, the great reset, and now also the Covid vaccine. All of these have believable reasons to take either side of the argument. There is a virus currently killing off old and weak people, there is an agenda to reset the economy, and the vaccine is a real thing that we either have to accept on faith or not. All of these things are real. What's up for discussion is what to do about it.

Conspiracies and hoaxes are rarely without any foundation at all. They are mostly built around some real event that happened quite randomly. However, there may also be cases where the entire episode in question is a pure fabrication. An example of this would be the recent incident in which Tiffany Dover, a head nurse, fainted after taking a shot of Covid vaccine. The fact that this happened on direct TV makes it suspicious, almost as if it was planned. But it also makes it believable. There's real life footage of the incident.

Some may argue that the state has no interest in faking something like this because the state wants us all vaccinated. However, this ignores the fact that the state is a multi-headed beast that thrives on conflicts and uncertainty. There is always an incentive for chaos somewhere inside the state apparatus, and the Tiffany Dover incident is a prime example of a convenient mishap, or deliberate hoax, to be used by someone to extend power through the creation of chaos.

None of this will ever be fully resolved. There's just too many interests involved and too much to be gained by keeping this and all other conspiracy theories alive. The only useful takeaway is that we should be wary of the state. Nothing reported from the state or about the state can be trusted. Furthermore, none of this is in the end very important for any of us. What's important is not to know all the facts, but to live our lives to the fullest.

Smallpox vaccine.jpg
Smallpox vaccine

By Photo Credit: James Gathany Content Providers(s): CDC - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #2674. Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers. Deutsch | English | македонски | slovenščina | +/−, Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Carpe Diem

When fear is being used against us as a tool of control, only the fearless live. Everyone else suspend their lives for the moment in the hope that normality will return. However, normality may never return. Those waiting for a better time to live than now may well find themselves waiting for ever.

It was this insight that led the Romans to the conclusion that life has to be lived fearlessly in the now, especially in times of chaos and social decay. Carpe Diem, they said as they scrambled to make the best of every day given to them. Other people and religions have come to similar conclusions. In Norse mythology, only the fearless go to heaven. The fearful go to Hellheim. In Christianity, we're told to love and live freely as God intended. Life is a gift that must not be wasted. To squander it is a sin.

What is suggested is not recklessness or hedonism. The idea is not to indulge ourselves in the now at the expense of our future. We are not to act as if there's no tomorrow. Rather, we're to act in the certainty that there will be a future, but that it may not be better than now. There has to be a balance. We must neither exhaust our resources in the present, nor save them all for some future day. We must act rationally in the face of real dangers. Life must go on, and life must be lived fully, not huddled in fear.

Implicit in this is a cost benefit analysis based on available information. We must trust our instincts and reasoning. The current flu scare appears overblown. The flu is nothing to be feared. Very few people die from this, so why cut back on our lives? Our children are even more immune to this disease, so why not tell them straight up that they are unlikely to be much affected by it? Why bother with face masks for children?

It may be tempting to go out and argue against all the tyranny that has come about in the wake of this scare, but it's not going to get us anywhere. If we have to wait for permission to live freely, we'll be waiting at least as long as those waiting due to fear of the virus. It's not only the virus we should be fearless about. We must be equally fearless in the face of authority. It's not up to any of these to decide when and how we live. The best strategy is therefore to stay out of the public eye and live as freely as we possibly can. There's also no point in arguing the facts of the matter. This is not about facts. It's not about statistics and numbers. It's not about the virus. This is about freedom, and freedom is only for those who live life fearlessly in face of imagined and real dangers.

Living life in the now
Living life in the now

A Return to Simplicity

Contrary to popular belief, there's nothing modern about complexity. Complexity is not a necessary consequence of modernity. Rather, complexity is a cost. It wears us down like any other burden. Economic progress is therefore just as much about convenience as it is about physical stuff. Our lives get better when complexities are removed.

This will become increasingly clear as we move forward into turbulent years. With laws and regulations multiplying so fast that no-one is able to keep track of it all, there will be a popular reaction towards simplicity. There will be a strong move away from politics and the complexities of modern investment strategies.

This means that we will see a return to traditional values and physical stuff. We will see families act autonomously as suggested in my book. We will also see a shift from investing in ideas to investing in things. Things of simple elegance and beauty will do well. The same will happen with productive capital and land, as well as gold and silver. That which has little to no use value will go dramatically down in price, especially if there's a fixed cost associated with it. If it also lacks physical qualities that can be considered beautiful it's prize will go to zero.

The benchmark for value will be moved from perceived modernity to actual utility and beauty. If it isn't simple it won't sell, and the physical world will be used as our reference point. Technologies that cannot compete with physical reality in terms of convenience will go extinct. The internet will continue to do well, but many of the services offered on the internet will struggle.

This will lead to a quiet and sustainable revolution. Things will look a whole lot different a few decades from now, and there won't be any single event to explain what happened. The great Covid scare will be mentioned as a turning point, but there won't be anything else to point to. It will be as if people woke up little by little to a new set of values and principles. Over time, the landscape shifted with no other driver than a yearning for simplicity and beauty.

This shift will be painless and very much welcomed by people who already live according to these values and principles. Those relying on further expansion of the state and all its associated complexities in finance and social organization will suffer greatly. Without a firm safety net of strong personal relations and family ties, things will become decidedly choppy. The same goes for those heavily invested in ideas rather than things. Antiquated institutions will collapse, with everybody working for these institutions forced to find other ways to earn a living. There will be no CPS and there will be no public schools. There will instead be strong families, private schools, orphanages and home schooling, all of it at vastly better quality than what is currently being provided by the state.

Simplicity
Simplicity

Monday, December 21, 2020

The Deep State

The state is well described in the Bible as a beast with many heads and horns, often at war with itself. It's big and brutish and quite lacking in intelligence, the very opposite of what many imagine the state to be. The glossy image of the state as something made by the people for the people is a deceptive lie peddled by the state who rely heavily on people accepting the social contract, also an invention of the state. The image presented is that of brave statesmen fairly elected by a concerned and well informed citizenry. However, the state is far more than just a handful of politicians at the helm. The state has a bureaucracy, and a set of owners often referred to as the deep state. These bodies don't change with elections. They are also the real entities in charge of the state, even when occasionally opposed by political outsiders.

All of this is well known, yet many people refuse to accept the existence of a deep state. The idea that the state is a privately owned institution where politicians rarely attain more than symbolic power is simply too sinister to accept. However, it's quite clear that it isn't the politicians themselves that draft laws and regulations. Such things are made by the bureaucracy in cooperation with corporate entities. The state is in this way a private extension of corporate interests.

Political outsiders only stand a chance when the bureaucracy and deep state are willing to cooperate. The outsider must have something to offer, like Hitler did in his time. Going up against the state with the intention to drastically reduce it, as Reagan tried to do, is doomed to failure, as he soon found out. The state is simply not interested in reducing its power. It's only interested in arrangements that benefit itself.

However, this doesn't mean that the bureaucracy and the deep state is well organized. Individuals fight each other for power at all levels. There's internal bickering inside departments, and bickering between departments. Individuals inside the deep state are likewise in competition with other individuals for the money and favours lavished onto the deep state by the bureaucracy. There's a huge marketplace for favours and kickbacks.

The deep state extends all the way out to passive owners of corporations. As a former shareholder in a large Norwegian publishing company I've seen this with my own eyes. There was never any shame in discussing openly among shareholders how the state could best be used to our advantage. Top level bureaucrats were mentioned by name as being either ours or somebody else's. Laws and regulations were always vetted by us and other publishers before implementation. Rarely was there any worry that the state would do things contrary to our interests. Political newcomers were vetted as to their usefulness. Those deemed troublesome were swiftly dealt with. Frozen out and isolated, they were quickly stripped of any power to do anything.

The deep state uses the state apparatus to crush competition. The deal being that of a protection racket. Corporations serve as convenient tax collecting structures in return for laws and regulations that favour the deep state. It's a feudal arrangement, and it will always be a feudal arrangement because the state is a feudal system. The political theatre present to the masses is but a varnish on the underlying mess in order to keep the masses under the impression that they are somehow in control of what's going on in the halls of power.

The only truly strange thing about this is the fact that so many still believe that the state is by the people and for the people, and that structural changes can come from political action. That has never been the case, and it will never be the case. A true outsider has absolutely no power over the state. Voting makes no difference. However, this goes both ways. The state has little power over true outsiders who chooses to live according to their own laws and regulations. Real change for the better is not far away. All it takes is a declaration of personal sovereignty, and a will to follow a plan.

Chateau-fort-Durer.jpg
Fort

By Albrecht Dürer - Collection privee, Public Domain, Link

Sunday, December 20, 2020

Tesla and the S&P 500

Tesla is being included in the S&P 500 index at what can safely be described as elevated valuations. With a Price / Earnings ratio above 1000, and the economic outlook for the consumer less than rosy, it's hard to see how this kind of valuation can be maintained. Furthermore, there has of late been a dramatic drop in bank lending, indicating an imminent drop in prices for speculative assets. The price of Tesla shares is for these reasons alone likely to drop. However, market dynamics surrounding the inclusion of this company in the S&P 500 are likely to cause the drop to be even worse than it already seems likely to be.

The inclusion of Tesla in the S&P 500 has forced the hand of index fund managers who've had no choice but to buy this stock at its all time high. As a consequence, this stock is now owned by many more people than would otherwise have been the case. Most of its owners are so out of necessity rather than enthusiasm. The stock has had a fantastic run, despite its mediocre earnings. It's as speculative a bet as any, and far more likely to go down than up. Which begs the question, who's still interested in buying it?

Making this even more perilous is the fact that S&P 500 is itself at an all time high, making it likely to be an early casualty of the current drop in bank lending. Going forward, those selling shares in the S&P 500 will be sellers of Tesla, and with an outsized allocation to Tesla due to the price bubble its currently in, there will be a need to sell large stakes in Tesla to cover withdrawals.

But those still holding speculative positions in Tesla will likely front run index managers, going from long to short at the very moment S&P 500 indexes have fully loaded up on this stock. With the P/E ratio above 1000, there will be nothing holding this stock up as it comes crashing down. Even a 99% drop in its price will still keep the P/E ratio above 10. A further 50% drop may be required in order to make it attractive to conservative value investors, which means that Tesla may fall as much as 99.5% before hitting a bottom.

A further consequence of this is that S&P 500 will greatly underperform indexes that do not include Tesla, making it all the more attractive to short the S&P 500. The result of this will be a rotation from speculative to conservative position, making the inclusion of Tesla in the S&P 500 likely to go down in history as the pin that pricked the current bubble in speculative assets.

2018 Tesla Model S 75D.jpg

By Vauxford - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

A Drop in Bank Lending

 The following chart appeared in a Zerohedge article this morning.

US Bank Lending
US Bank Lending

From the shape of it alone, we can see that trouble is on its way. After a sharp increase in lending at the end of 2019, lending is heading straight down.

This means that prices that are dependent on continued credit expansion are likely to suffer greatly in the short term. Speculative bets will be forced to unwind.

There is at present a scramble to unwind bets and pay down debt, which will have the opposite effect of the credit expansion we've just been witnessing. Speculative financial assets will go down in price at a rate at least equal to the rate of the build up.

The mechanism of this is implicit in the current debt based monetary system, where currency is issued through credit expansion. When debt is being paid back, as is currently happening, currency disappears from the system. This creates in turn a currency shortage, sending interest rates higher, forcing more leveraged bets to unwind.

The only way to stop this, short of letting all speculative bets implode, is through direct action by central banks. With no other buyers of debt or speculative assets, central banks will issue currency to buy these assets directly from the market. All this unbacked currency will then hit the market for real goods and services, sending commodities and precious metals soaring in price.

Without direct action, speculative bets implode, with currency becoming increasingly expensive relative to almost all things. However, with companies and institutions going belly up all over the place, gold and silver will be seen as the only secure place to store wealth. This scenario is therefore identical to the alternative when it comes to precious metals. Gold and silver will go up in price no matter what central banks do or don't do.

Friday, December 18, 2020

The Economic Ignorance of the Elite

The ignorance of the political and economical establishment is a never ending source of wonder, and rarely has it been so much on display as it has been this year. Having suspended reality for a year without any negative consequences to themselves, they have become emboldened. The most delusional of the lot speak openly about their visions of a brave new world. However, there's a limit to how long reality can be suspended before it comes roaring back with a vengeance, and that's when we'll see how clueless the elite has been all along. They will at first refuse to believe the damage that they've done, then they'll refuse to take any kind of responsibility, and then they will be ruined and chased out of town, as has happened many times before.

All of this is rather predictable. History is full of this kind of stories and it always ends the same way. Only those who have protected themselves against the collapse get away unscathed. Everybody else go down with the ship, including the clueless majority of the elite. Vocal world leaders and capitalists are rarely aware of the damage they are doing, and hence clueless as to the consequences of their actions. Gullible individuals are equally clueless. Many will never understand the scam, and those who do will realize it too late.

There will be few financial survivors, and they will have this in common: They know their history, and they know that basic laws of economics cannot be suspended without consequences. Very few of these people are outspoken about what they know, preferring to prepare in silence rather than engaging in endless debates.

A substantial minority of those who understand where this is headed are themselves part of the elite. They are profiting in the moment from the insanity of their peers, and gain nothing from warning others of what's going to happen. They prepare in very much the same way as the others, only with substantially more invested than the average person. However, the vast majority of the elite are clueless about the chaos they are unleashing, and the reason for this is threefold:

The most important reason for their ignorance is the size of their fortunes. With so much wealth, how can they possibly be ignorant of anything? They dismiss the very idea as absurd.

Secondly, we have the fact that things have gone very much according to the wishes of the elite, even in the face of a pandemic. They have accumulated wealth during this period, making them convinced that their interference in the economy has had no serious consequences.

Finally, there's the fact that the elite is not in any way as important as they like to think. The vast majority of them are parasites that simply leach off society. This is a truth it's hard to swallow, so they supress it with wishful thinking and monumental gatherings in places like Davos. They make grand plans for society in the false belief that they are the architects of our social order, and that it is this alone that keeps things together.

The truth is only understood and accepted by a small minority within the elite, and is similarly misinterpreted by the average Joe in the street. The vast majority of the elite have made their fortunes through political connections and meddling. They know their way through the halls of power, but are clueless to economy as such. They don't even understand the consequence of a national year off, where production of goods and services have been replaced by the production of currencies.

What is going on right now is similar to what happens when a family decides to take a year off by borrowing money to make up for the shortfall. It may look like nothing bad is happening to their finances, but the consequences of their reckless decision will be felt in the future. No law of economics has been suspended and no miracle has been produced. Only future hardships have been secured.

There simply is no way to suspend production and expect consumption to continue unabated. There will be consequences, and it's rather odd to see so many people thinking otherwise.

Klaus Schwab WEF 2008 (cropped).jpg
Klaus Schwab

By Copyright World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org) swiss-image.ch/Photo by Remy Steinegger - https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/2296517249/, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

When Things Get Real

We live in strange times where reality itself seems to have been suspended. However, this is sure to give way to the extreme opposite. Reality is about to come knocking on everybody's door, and those unprepared will end up homeless, cold and hungry. The reason for this being that it's impossible to take a national year off without dire consequences. Those under the impression that value can increase without an increase in production are wrong, no matter what the stock market may tell us. Even more wrong are those who believe that there can be value where there's no utility or substance. Yet, a majority of people seem to be of this opinion.

All but forgotten is Richard Cantillon's observation that all wealth derives from productive land. Everything else rests on the ability of farmers to satisfy our basic need for food. Without food, nothing has value. Right above this level comes shelter, furniture and utilities, without which we are cold and uncomfortable.

It's only when all needs related to the real world are met that other things become valuable. Art, literature, games and science is only valuable to those who have their more basic needs met. The more abstract the artefact, the more it relies on the underlying hierarchy. Yet we now have a situation where the mere idea that something may be more valuable in the future is keeping prices elevated. Bitcoin made new highs today, and Tesla is priced at thousand times its earnings. Propaganda, surveillance and control have become growth industries. Money has become digital. People are increasingly living their lives in virtual bubbles where almost all of what little production there is is data related.

Politicians are implementing crazy policies that discount the real world as if it's a mere extension to the world of ideas. Currencies are printed as if that in itself can keep us warm and comfortable in our homes. However, the real world doesn't care about digital currencies, be it dollars or Bitcoin. The real world is solely about production. Without production we'll all be hungry and cold, no matter what number is registered in a bank or on an internet ledger.

When things get real, only real things matter. In times of crisis no-one swaps scarce resources for mere ideas. There has to be real value in the form of utility or production. A mere number, or the possibility of future returns, will not do. Only commodity money will be accepted. People will learn the hard way that money belongs among things because food and shelter belongs among things.

There will be a return to things as the consequences from failed policies start piling up. Once hunger and cold become knocking on people's doors, they'll realize the folly of owning ideas rather than things.

Goldeagle.jpg
Gold eagle

Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Home Schooling Teaching Techniques

One of the joys of home schooling from the perspective of parents is the discovery of teaching techniques that work well with our children. All children are different, so there's no technique that can be singled out as best for all children, and herein lies the challenge and joy of discovery.

The joy of home schooling from the perspective of children is the flexibility and freedom that this format gives them. They don't have to spend hours in silence while waiting for something interesting to happen. They can direct the teaching themselves, especially if their parents are good at picking up signals.

Having invested a few Euros in an online home schooling package, my wife and I have gotten hold of the perfect tool. We don't need to read up on what the curriculum is, we don't need to buy books, and there's no worry that we might be missing something. However, it's not immediately clear how this tool can best be used for the particular needs and talents of our child. There are lessons and exercises, but no directions as to how best to use these resources.

Our experience so far is that our child functions best when teaching sessions are short. He is also better at doing exercises when let to himself. In fact, letting our child work things out on his own has made him positively excited about learning. The joy of discovery is something he shares with his parents. He loves to figure things out on his own.

This has led me to the following conclusions as to how to direct our teaching: To keep things short, we separate lessons and tests by a day. Not going directly from lessons to tests allows the material to be properly digested, and motivation to build for doing the tests.

Tests are then done with a minimum of help from us. He can call on us to help interpret texts and the like, but is otherwise encouraged to figure things out for himself. This has led him to discover unorthodox ways to solve problems, which is exiting in two ways. It teaches him that there are many ways to solve puzzles, and it teaches him that his intellect is capable of discovering this unaided by adults.

The result from this is that we have a highly motivated learner in our family. He is no longer showing immediate sign of fatigue and boredom in face of challenges. Knowing that the teaching session is short, and the tests are for a separate day gives him the energy to pay attention. Having discovered the joy of discovery has also made him motivated for tests, with him sometimes calling on us simply out of pride.

Done correctly, learning is a joy, and very little time is required to absorb knowledge and information when properly motivated.

Fireside Education frontispiece.jpg
Fireside Education

By Transferred from en.wikibooks to Commons by Adrignola using CommonsHelper. Originally uploaded to en:Wikipedia in November 2006 (log) by Darentig (talk)., Public Domain, Link

A Year of Miracles

2020 has been a year of miracles. First, there were a deadly flu that turned harmless before our very eyes. But just as it was fading in severity, Boris Johnson caught a particularly bad strain of it. What followed was a miraculous journey to the underworld and back over the same days that Jesus did this almost 2000 years ago.

This real life drama prompted the world into a lockdown, but again there was a miracle. With the economy paralyzed and industrial production at a virtual stand still, stock markets reached new all time highs.

Then there was the miracle of politics where Trump got the most votes ever for a sitting president, but Biden managed to get even more, making him the candidate with the most votes ever. The normal rules of existence, where people refrain from choosing when presented with two unsavoury options did not apply on this occasion. People were out in force, eagerly voting for the least of two evils.

With so many miracles in science, economy and politics, it's odd that not a single one can be traced back to religion. It is as if all miracles have moved away form religion and into other fields of human existence. Or put another way, religion seems to have moved out of religion and into science, economy and politics, which are now firmly established as our new altars of worship.

portrait photograph of a 55-year-old Johnson
Boris Johnson

By Ben Shread / Cabinet Office, OGL 3, Link

Monday, December 14, 2020

The Economy of Beauty

My wife and I spent a few hundred Euro on three pieces of old furniture the other day. We figured we might as well pay a few extra Euros for something a little nicer to look at than typical IKEA pieces. With these old pieces likely to keep their value better than modern mass produces stuff, the direct economic benefit to our decision is also easy to figure out. Instead of saving our money in a bank account, we've put a little of it into something nice to have in the house. However, this is but a trivial part of the total investment return.

Having brought these pieces into our home, our apartment has changed character. While still as crowded and disorganized as ever, the overall feel is now more of a rustic middle class home. In my mind, there are vague associations to distant ancestry. This feeling of belonging becomes all the stronger when we set our table with our finest porcelain, cutlery and glasses. Suddenly I'm transported emotionally to a time when elegance and beauty was taken more seriously, and I very much like it. It makes me feel comfortable, calm and affluent, and this is the real economic value of things of beauty. It calms us down, makes us balanced and focused.

Focus and balance are in turn what's needed in order to succeed in life. Our best decisions are always taken from such a position, and that's why beauty is so often associated with real wealth rather than wealth merely imagined. Beauty is not only wealth in the present, it's a pretty sure starting point for continued wealth in the future, and the best part of this is that it doesn't have to cost much to get started. Our most beautiful pieces of art, furniture, cups and cutlery are not our most expensive pieces.

We have expensive wine glasses that we hardly ever use for the simple reason that they are prone to tip over and break, something that significantly diminish their value. They look beautiful, but our awareness of their frailty makes it impossible for us to use them without experiencing tension and anxiety. Our cheaper set of more robust glasses are therefore preferred. Beauty is not merely appearance but utility as well. There has to be a feeling of quality, reliability and robustness. Otherwise, there's little depth to the beauty at hand, and hence little real value apart from a glossy surface.

Things of real beauty are robust enough to be used daily, and this is exactly what we should do. That which is beautiful should not merely be on display, it should be used regularly, because it's only when we use what we have that we fully appreciate value, and only then are we able to experience the affluence that surrounds us.

Antique furniture
Antique furniture

Sunday, December 13, 2020

The Elegant Genius of Bible Prophesies

I'm not religious in any conventional sense of the word. I don't believe in God, and I don't think the Bible is an accurate documentary of the past or the future. However, I do believe that there's wisdom in the Bible and that it can be accessed and used by all to create a better life for ourselves. The trick is to read it with an open mind and with a constructive desire to get at the useful bits, because there's plenty of practical advise in the Bible for those who're willing to look for it.

Students of history will also see that there's plenty of overlap between Bible stories and actual historic events. But there are also discrepancies. The Bible is not a reliable source for archaeology. However, it's good at interpretation. It gives good advice when it comes to life and how to live in harmony, even under averse conditions. There is advice on what to look for and what to do and not to do when navigating society and life itself.

Seen in this light, Bible prophesies come across as something more than just psychedelic doom and gloom. They are not merely visions of the future. They're also visions of the past, with vivid and strange imagery deliberately introduce in order to obscure the specifics. The thinking being that the future is going to be a repetition of the past, but draped differently. The signs of things to come are specific enough for us to discern, but vague enough to make them relatively unrelated to history.

The four horsemen of the apocalypse becomes in this way a generic story about unsustainable political and economic ambitions. The advice to us is also clear. We must stay away from such projects. We must seek our likeminded and disappear from society if necessary. We are also encouraged to look for signs of trouble. There's all sorts of imagery, all of it vague enough to fit almost anything, but specific enough to tell us whether or not a specific person or event is ominous or not.

Babylon the Great, commonly known as the Whore of Babylon, is a good example of a sign that we're encouraged to look for. The imagery used is that of a person and a great city, and it's unclear whether we should look for either or both. It's also unclear if the location of this entity is physical or allegorical. However, it's clear that we should be suspicious of overly ambitions women of questionable moral standing as well as large cities, especially those at the heart of empires. In the event of such a woman ascending to the peak of power in a city associated with political grift and empire, we're pretty much spot on as far as identity goes. Should for instance Kamala Harris one day be sworn in as president of the US, we're likely to see some serious shenanigans going forward. Specifically, we can view such an event as a sign that the current socio-economic cycle is about to come to an apocalyptic end.

Such signs should be taken seriously, and proper action should be taken to protect ourselves. Unwinding speculative positions, and withdrawal from the public scene is a safe and sensible first step. Moving out and away from large cities is another sensible thing we can do. Owning gold and silver is never a bad idea. Withdrawing savings from banks and credit institutions is also a good idea. But hiding out in a bunker somewhere is not recommended. The Bible doesn't suggest this as an option. Instead, we're advised to seek likeminded people and create community, commerce and industry together with them.

Bougival Église Notre-Dame Vitrail 592.jpg
Great Babylon

By Henri-Marcel Magne - Self-photographed by GFreihalter, November 2018, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Friday, December 11, 2020

What All Conspiracy Theorists Refuse to Accept

We live in a world full of superstitions and science denial. Conspiracy theorists are out in force with their wild eyed ramblings. Not only don't they believe in the science behind manmade global warming, and the existential threat of Covid, they refuse to accept that Biden won over Trump. But the numbers are clear. Biden won by the most votes ever cast for a presidential candidate. Biden got more votes than Clinton, more votes than Obama, and more votes than Bush.

Crazy conspiracy theorists simply refuse to accept that Biden is a very popular man. While Trump got more votes than any sitting president in US history, Biden got more. Biden also got a whopping one billion dollars in campaign contributions, making him the most popular candidate ever among the well to do. Biden's popularity transcends the wealth gap, with voters and contributors at both extremes.

With the middle class rapidly shrinking in the US, Biden got the upper hand. With the outlook bleak for the middle class going forward, Biden is likely to capture the next four years as well. A swelling underclass of people dependent on state hand-outs, coupled with an increasingly wealthy and powerful elite of super rich, virtually guarantees Democrat victories from here on out.

Manwithtinfoilhat.jpg
Tin foil hat

By Rory112233 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

What All Conspiracy Theorists Believe

Conspiracy theorists are often depicted as tin foil hat wearers with wild ideas about Earth being flat, gravity somehow being fake and dinosaurs never having existed. But the vast majority of conspiracy theorists hold no such opinions, and they are certainly not fashioning hats out of tin foil.

Conspiracy theorists come in a great variety, with most of them having a few pet theories that they firmly believe, along with a broader range of things they may be sceptical to without being sure what to believe.

What separates conspiracy theorists from mere sceptics are their firm beliefs, of which there are a small handful that all conspiracy theorists agree on. As things currently stand, there are three seemingly unrelated things that every conspiracy theorist believes. They are:

  1. Global warming is not man made
  2. Covid is not an existential threat to humanity
  3. There was massive fraud against Trump in the US election
To believe any of the above items will automatically label us as conspiracy theorists by the more level headed portion of society. It's therefore interesting to note that a person believing one of the items to be true, also believes the two other items. These beliefs come in groups, which begs the question as to why such beliefs group together. They don't seem to have much in common, so why do they appear together in the mind of conspiracy theorists?

The answer to this is that there is a belief in an underlying conspiracy that people in power are directing against the general public. This underlying belief is based on the idea that there is a lust for power and money at the top of government and corporations that work together to form obstacles and taxes aimed at small entrepreneurs and labourers. A desire for conformity, and fear of being labelled crazy by our peers, is then used against us to prevent this idea to gain widespread acceptance.

Any theory that has at its base a belief in government and corporations as anything but benevolent is immediately attacked as a conspiracy theory, leading to the current state of affairs where there are three theories lumped together without any direct link to each other except an underlying belief that evil always lurks in the halls of power.

An interesting consequence of this is that any discussion on one of the three main conspiracies mentioned above has a tendency to bring in the two other ones as well. Covid, climate change and Trump have repeatedly been linked together, not only by conspiracy theorists, but by everybody else as well. The only thing contested is whether these beliefs are false or true.

This in turn highlights the true importance of the upcoming legal deliberations as to the scale of fraud in the recently held US elections. It's not merely about Trump and Biden, it's about Covid and climate change as well. If Trump wins, climate change and Covid industries are likely to fall as well. If Biden wins, these industries will thrive, and conspiracy theorists will have to retreat back into the shadows from where they emerged.  

Manwithtinfoilhat.jpg
Tin foil hat

By Rory112233 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Sunday, December 6, 2020

Personal Secession

Secession require only two conditions to be met:

  1. Tribute is no longer paid upwards in the political hierarchy
  2. Money is issued and kept independently
Centrally issued laws and regulations may still be followed, trade may be conducted in currency issued by central banks, and lip-service may still be given to the feudal lords. However, none of this matters as long as the treasury of the independent entity is kept out of reach from third party busybodies.

There's no need for grand declarations of independence or violent rebellion. All that's required is a will to be free. Furthermore, secession is not the same as isolation. The aim of secession is not to be isolated from others, but to be in control of local monetary issues. This means that any political unit can secede, and it doesn't have to be violent or even noted down as a fact. Secession doesn't require any formal petition. No-one sent a formal letter to Rome from North-western Iberia when that part of the Roman empire seceded. None of the mini-states in Germany sent any formal letter to the Kaiser. In fact, lip-service was still given both to Rome and the Kaiser many years after secession was a fact.

The will to secede is all that's required, and the seceding unit can be anything from the state level down to the family. A citizen can secede from the taxman by making an effort to achieve minimal taxation and minimal savings in the state-managed financial system. While it may at first seem close to impossible to achieve independence this way, it's surprising how much can be achieved once we put our mind to it. I've personally severed all ties with the taxman and the banking system, so my personal secession from the state is complete. However, my wife and children are still inside the system out of practical necessity, so I cannot say that our family has achieved complete secession at this point. But things continue to move towards independence.

So far, we've achieved drastic reduction in taxation of our family as a whole. We've reduced our exposure to banks and financial markets, preferring gold and real-estate to fiat money and debt. Our long term aim is to build our wealth around gold, productive land and activities that easily pass under the radar of the taxman. This way, we'll build our independence from the bottom up, with a minimum of confrontation.

Café de Flore.jpg
Café de Flore

By Arnaud 25 - Own work, Public Domain, Link

Saturday, December 5, 2020

A First Step Towards Secession

Things have gotten positively weird since I wrote my post on the totalitarian paradox, and it appears that things are about to come unglued. Just as predicted in my post, bureaucrats and state officials of various stripes are starting to ignore and oppose the edicts of aspiring totalitarian leaders. As a case in point we just got this news story that a sheriff in California has made it clear that he will not enforce the latest laws and regulations coming from the state governor.

This is a significant development because sheriffs in the US are elected figures at the county level. If they stop enforcing rules and regulations issued by the state, they are in effect taking a first step towards secession.

What makes this news report even more significant is that the stakes have immediately been raised by state officials. They are threatening to withhold state and federal funds. But this can in turn be countered by county officials by withholding taxes collected on behalf of the state and federal governments. The county in question is presumably wealthy enough to take care of their own finances based on their own resources. If this happens, it would be secession in all but name.

What history teaches us when it comes to secession is that it's frequently a rather discrete affair. It doesn't require any grand declaration. All that's required is a will to secede, and this comes about the moment regional governments no longer see any benefit in paying tribute to higher government levels. What follows may be a formal declaration of independence, but it may just as well be a quiet affair. North-west Iberia seceded from Rome simply by withholding taxes and minting their own coins. This happened without any violent confrontations of note.

The role of money in secession movements are often trivialized or ignored, but is in fact the main driver of secession. It all boils down to taxes and funding. When taxation becomes burdensome relative to funding, secession becomes increasingly likely. This means that secession is unlikely as long as the centrally issued currency is strong and business regulations are relatively lax. But should the currency deteriorate, and regulations become burdensome, secession starts making a lot of sense.

This means that a deteriorating US dollar will have serious implications. Coupled with out of control totalitarianism at the state and federal level, many county sheriffs will simply stop taking orders from higher up in the federal structure. Books will be cooked so as to make it seem that little to no taxes have been collected, and there may be moves to make gold and silver legal tender within the county borders. Like minded sheriffs can then forge alliances independent of state and federal agents, re-drawing the political map in the process.

This may sound unlikely, but history tells us that this is a rather common outcome, especially when it comes to large federations with aspirations towards empire. 

NY - Suffolk County Office Of The Sheriff Badge.png
Sheriff badge

By SGT141 - Own work, Public Domain, Link

A Matter of Style

It amazes me that so many people still believe that Boris Johnson went into intensive during Easter, only to be released from hospital on Easter Sunday. It's one of these weird things that prove to me that most people don't think. They listen to experts, and they believe whatever they are told, even when evidence to the contrary are right in front of us.

Intensive care would normally cause major fatigue to a person. Yet, not a single journalist seemed at all sceptical to the official story. It was all about Boris and his epic journey to the underworld and back. Even more astonishing was the complete lack of scepticism in the general public. Everybody, including most self proclaimed sceptics seemed convinced that the story was genuine, and this appears to be the case to this day. Only the truly paranoid appear to be sceptical to the story.

With any scepticism to this story immediately placing us in the crank category of sceptics, it may at first seem impossible to poke a hole in the official narrative. However, this is not the case. All that's required is to activate the network effect at opportune moments. If properly delivered, our message will spread far and wide.

With most people believing the official narrative, it's important to avoid any direct confrontation. Stating the obvious in a blunt and humourless way will only serve to entrench listeners. Far better is a light and non-confrontational message that opens the possibility for listeners to pretend that the stated truth is something that they always knew. There should be ambiguity in the way our message is formed, allowing for consideration by the listeners. No-one likes to be told that they have been fooled. Let them therefore claim that they never fully believed the false narrative.

I had the opportunity to try this strategy last night when someone on Facebook used Boris Johnson as an example of someone who've suffered tremendously from Covid. Instead of telling him how gullible he is for believing this, I commented by recanting the events surrounding Johnson's illness with the natural conclusion that Johnson's recovery was nothing short of a miracle. I was in this way simply expanding on the idea that the commentator was holding to be true, siding with him in his naïve belief. I did not reveal whether I was ironic or truthful, allowing him to skip along to a better example, which he promptly did.

My message was thus delivered and understood without offending anyone. The fact that the original commentator chose to veer away from his original example suggests that my message was as successful as it could possibly be. Normally, people don't change their minds when confronted. However, with this somewhat humorous and non-confrontational style, the response indicates at least some budding scepticism to the official narrative. To allow for this scepticism to set, I made a point of not addressing any of his other remarks. My goal was not to make a big statement. My goal was simply to challenge the idea that Boris Johnson is a Covid survivor. 

I also received a number of likes by people who were following the thread, indicating that many may have been prompted into scepticism from my statement. Subtle humour has the quality that it requires a moment of reflection in order to be understood, which is all that's needed in order to poke hole in a false narrative.

What happens next is that the network effect kicks in. Those realizing the unlikelihood of the official narrative will at the very least be reluctant to use Boris Johnson as an example of a Covid survivor. Some may even vent their disbelief. This will in turn propagate through the network until it becomes the majority view. It may not happen right away. A few more gentle pushes may be required, but it's virtually impossible for the official narrative to remain unchallenged for much longer. Some stories are simply too good to be true, and Johnson's epic journey to the underworld and back is definitely in that category.

portrait photograph of a 55-year-old Johnson
Boris Johnson

By Ben Shread / Cabinet Office, OGL 3, Link

Thursday, December 3, 2020

Mistletoe and Holly

It's a curious thing that Mistletoe and Holly are so often confused with each other. They don't look very much alike, so why the mix up? My theory for this is that they have the same symbolic meaning, and for very similar reasons. Holly is associated with Christ's suffering and crucifixion, and Mistletoe is associated with the death of Balder, the Norse god of beauty. To make up for the fact that these plants were used in terrible ways for no fault of their own, devotees of Balder and Christ made it a habit to bring these plants into their homes as symbols of the beauty and affection that evil tried to destroy.

It's tempting to conclude from this that our reverence for these plants come directly from Norse and Roman mythology. However, the druids considered both plants to have healing power. They too revered these plants. There's therefore a Celtic connection to this story that goes parallel to that of the Norse and the Romans.

Mistleltoe in Lebanon.JPG
Mistletoe

By Elie plus at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Ilex-aquifolium (Europaeische Stechpalme-1).jpg
Holly

By Jürgen Howaldt - Self-photographed, CC BY-SA 2.0 de, Link

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

China's Message to Biden

No less than three headlines hit the news today, all outlining things to come when it comes to America's relationship with China and how this will influence the US dollar. First out was a story about Biden's stance on China, which sounds to be as tough on trade as Trump was. Then there was a headline on rising yields in the treasury market, and finally a bipartisan decision to unleash close to one trillion dollars in economic stimulus.

Surely, China cannot be very pleased with any of this. With trillions of dollars tucked away in US treasuries, China is liable to lose a lot of money unless US politicians show some restraint. More likely than not, China is going to be a net seller of US treasuries going forward, and the recent spike in interest rates may well have been China's way of telling Biden that he better be careful. If Biden stays tough on China and lax on monetary policy, China is liable to accelerate its sale of treasuries.

That would mean that no less than three trillion dollars of Chinese owned dollars are about to hit the market in addition to the trillion dollars unleased by the US congress. Which begs the question, where will it all end up. Being wary of US assets in general, China will continue its recent hoarding of commodities. It will also buy gold and silver. This will set upward pressure on prices for goods relative to the dollar. With interest rates likely to continue upwards as a consequence of China's shift from treasuries to commodities, anything sensitive to interest rates will also be hit. This means that stocks, debt and real estate will face downward pressure relative to gold. While these assets may see nominal gains in dollars, their real value will go down together with the value of the dollar.

With US politicians showing no restraint on debt or foreign policy, it seems inevitable that some sort of hyperinflationary bust is on its way. Those not properly prepared for this outcome are likely to suffer greatly.

Train wreck at Montparnasse 1895.jpg
Train wreck

By Photo credited to the firm Levy & fils by this site. (It is credited to a photographer "Kuhn" by another publisher [1].) - the source was not disclosed by its uploader., Public Domain, Link

In Praise of Facebook

All sorts of good things have come to me through the internet. Not only did I find my wife on the web, I've found new ways to view the world, and a path to early retirement.

Much of this has been thanks to Facebook which is receiving far more criticism than it deserves. While it's true that it engages paid censors in order to suppress truth, it's nevertheless a net propagator of useful information. I've found all sorts of interesting ideas on Facebook. The electric universe paradigm would have been unknown to me without it, and so would many fascinating facts about the universe and the planet we inhabit. My books on physics wouldn't have come about without this information, nor would my book on personal finance, politics and economy. I would also have missed out on many valuable friendships, including some very interesting Norwegian expats living in here Porto, my adopted home town.

My life would have been a lot sadder without Facebook, and I suspect this to be true for many others as well. It is of course easy to become a little hooked on Facebook, but that's related to our general tendency towards obsessions more than Facebook in itself. Censorship is also an annoying feature of Facebook, but quite harmless in the greater scheme of things. Truth can still be propagated more efficiently through Facebook than more traditional channels, because truth thrives in networks.

The trick when it comes to truth is to recognize that it rarely comes to us through hierarchy, and that we can propagate truth simply by talking honestly and politely about fairly uncontroversial matters. There's no need to organize into hierarchical structures in order to convey truth. What's required is a non-abrasive style and an honest passion for truth. Not only will that kind of posts fly under the radar of censors, they burry deep into the soul of our target audience, which in turn can be verified when we receive thumbs up from the people we want to reach.

I still have a little way to go in order to perfect my style, but I'm definitely getting heard and understood. Just the other day, I posted something related to truth and how it's important to stay open for multiple interpretations when dealing with facts. The underlying message was an attack on dogmatic thinking in science and politics, but I made no point in mentioning this. That would have been counter-productive as it would have come across as a little too personal and aggressive.

The response to my post was interesting in that I received thumbs up from two people I had specifically in mind when I wrote my post. One from an old school friend who probably thinks me a little strange for producing a book on physics that contradicts dogma, and another one from a friend who tends to trust authority in politics a little too much for his own good. The message was read and understood, at least superficially: Life is more interesting when we're open to alternative views and interpretations.

Taking pleasure in two thumbs up on Facebook may seem strange. However, this is the whole point about truth and networks. No-one needs to be a central authority, and everyone can be an essential link. When truth spreads from one node to another, it progresses in turn from these nodes. Some ideas may spread slowly, others spread with lightning speed. Some ideas may be truthful and others may be false. However, only truth has the staying power to remain in the network. The network becomes in this way an engine for truth, and there's no way to stop it. Not even an army of censors can stop an idea who's time has come. 

Facebook f logo (2019).svg

By Facebook, Inc. - http://en.facebookbrand.com, Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

A National Year Off

My decision to retire early, back in 2011, was in part based on my frustration with the political-economic system. Norway had just spent a small fortune bombing Libya back to the stone ages, and no-one around me seemed to care. The fact that tax rates had reached more than 100% for many individuals, and was at a staggering 70% for me didn't receive any sympathy either. It was as if I was the only one seeing the corruption in the system, and I saw no reason to support it with any of my taxes.

What followed was a period of anger and unease that didn't subside before I finally managed to put together a proper plan for my own survival back in 2016. Before then, I spent quite a few hours trying to come up with ways to band together with others in order to provoke some real resistance to the suicidal path that Norwegian politicians had embarked on. Little did I know back then that one of my plans would be implemented globally by none other than the politicians themselves.

The idea was to get as many productive people as possible to stop doing their productive work, thereby forcing the state to pull back regulation and taxation. It was a half baked plan with no hope of success, but it recognized the plain economic fact that all taxation rests on productive individuals, and that no taxation is possible without our consent. While money printing can paper over the initial shock of a coordinated lockdown, the system will soon crumble. My guess was that a year long lockdown would be sufficient to force real changes onto the system.

The lockdown was supposed to be voluntary. I imagined a great movement of frustrated individuals, all retreating for a year, voluntarily reducing their consumption to a minimum. I called it a national year off, and it was of course doomed to failure. This type of lockdown is only possible through state coercion.

It's ironic that what I imagined more than 5 years ago as a popular movement against the state has in fact transpired, but as a movement by the state against individuals. However, the economic effect is unlikely to turn out very different, so it appears to me that the state is unwittingly shooting itself in the foot. The lockdown seems to be aimed against the little entrepreneur, with the idea being that corporations will do better without competition from the little guys. But this ignores the fact that the little guys support the big guys, not only as customers, but also as service providers. Corporations cannot exist without the eco-system of smaller actors to support them.

Once small businesses shutter, customers and services essential for the survival of corporations will be gone, and the system will collapse. This will in turn force a reset of some kind, but any reset that fails to address the needs of the small business entrepreneur will be short lived. Only a return to small government and sound money can save governments from the national year off that they have engineered, and it's positively surreal to watch this unfold in real time, considering the amount of hours I spent imagining this happening back in the days.

Early retirement
Early retirement