Money is Always on the Side Line

With Bitcoin struggling to hang onto the $20,000 line, the nature of money is again being discussed.

An important aspect of money is that it's always on the side line. It never goes into or out of anything. It goes from one set of hands to another set of hands, as pointed out by a ZeroHedge commenter named 'truth'. He has the following to say about Bitcoin:

"Money doesn't go into or out of Bitcoin. It is a zero sum Ponzi scheme. Its 'price' is just a measure of how much wealth one wants to transfer to another person already playing in the game. When no one wants to play anymore its price will be zero, and you can't hang it on your wall, or feed your dog with it, or put it in a vase.

"Bitcoin is the largest most extraordinary game of financial chicken the world has ever seen. The idea that there always will be a price greater than zero because it somehow has some intrinsic value is just wrong. So when the price of Bitcoin goes to zero there will be no tidal wave of money coming out. It will just be a recognition that the wealth transfer is over and the folks holding the bag have nothing, and this will not affect those already out of the game in the least. They will have already won.

"Of course all the people playing the game, or trying to be compensated for facilitating the game, will create any sort of mechanism to promote the game. But that misses the point. The fundamental transaction is a transfer of wealth from someone not in the game to someone that is. All that transaction does is transfer some amount of real wealth from a non-player to a player so that the non-player is now a player and the previous player is out of the game. How much wealth was transferred to play is the price."

Brass token currently priced at about $19,000

By Steve Jurvetson - https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/8410385932/in/photostream/, CC BY 2.0, Link

Estimating My Facebook Reach

I'm no longer arguing with people on Facebook. There's no point in trying to convince anyone about anything using arguments. However, I still present facts on Facebook because properly presented facts cannot be argued with. Only opinions and value statements are open for discussions.

The problem with this strategy is that hardly anyone clicks on the various like buttons, so I end up with the feeling that I'm talking into a void. There's also no way to figure out if the information I present is appreciated. However, there is a way to monitor both reach and degree of appreciation on Facebook, and I've recently applied this trick.

I posted this picture of myself with with no other text than: Me and my #sunflower.

Me and my sunflower

The only thing remotely political about this picture is that it is taken on June 28 in Porto, when temperatures normally are in their mid to high 20C. Why am I wearing a sweater? But I don't think anyone picked up on this detail, and it wasn't my intention to make this about the climate. The day just happened to be cooler than normal.

As it turned out, I got 25 reactions and several comment, all positive. That's more than enough for me. I'm not out for likes and friends. My political agenda is not about me. I want to stoke the network effect, and 25 people is plenty for this purpose.

Not everybody is inclined to hit the like button, so my reach is most likely wider than 25 people. But the 25 people that did react positively to my picture are likely to be especially susceptible to my posts. They may not propagate my presented facts directly, but they will likely develop some apprehension when it comes to things and ideas that I target.

I present monthly updates on notable deaths, and Wikipedia's numbers for this June look likely to come in at levels similar to 2020 and 2021.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

This is a fact. There's no arguing with the figures. It's also a fact that there's been unusually many cases of SADS since May and June 2021. I don't need to present my personal opinion about these facts. People can connect the dots themselves. I may add that SADS remains a mystery despite great efforts by medical researchers to find out what may be causing it. That's borderline mockery of the entire medical establishment, but still a fact.

Now that I know that I have a willing audience of 25 friends, I can present my updated numbers next week, safe in the knowledge that the information will register with about that many people. They will in turn be reluctant to take their boosters, and they will discourage their nearest and dearest from taking it as well. As many as a hundred people may in this way change their minds about the vaccine, which is sufficient reach for me to make my presentation of facts worth while.

By Facebook, Inc. - http://en.facebookbrand.com, Public Domain, Link

Planning for World War 3

A year ago, it was unhinged medical fascism that was my big concern. I was wondering what to do if things got even worse. I was eying the Portuguese outback and Cape Verde as possible retreats. But things have since calmed down. My strategy of doing nothing while staying vigilant and liquid has so far been the correct option. However, a new threat is emerging, and it's once again time to consider my various options.

My concern now is mostly for my two boys in Norway. The elite is itching for a war with Russia, and their plan seems to be an all out attack from all sides. Norway has a border with Russia in the far north, and Norwegian recruit will no doubt be treated much the same way as Ukrainian recruits. My boys may well be drafted into a war that will have a high chance of getting them killed.

The problem has been made worse now that Sweden and Finland have joined NATO. Sweden was a safe haven fro young Norwegians during WW2. But this will not be the case during WW3. Any Norwegian recruit seeking to escape the war by going to Sweden will be escorted back to Norway.

Portugal is also a NATO member, but far less enthusiastic about a war with Russia. In the case of an all out war between NATO and the BRIC constellation, sympathies will pivot towards Brazil. It's almost impossible to imagine Portugal fighting against its former colony. It's therefore quite likely that Portuguese authorities will turn a blind eye towards recruits coming from Norway. However, the safer option for my boys may be Cape Verde, which is neither a part of Portugal nor a part of Brazil.

If a WW3 scenario was to unfold, I see no reason for my wife and I to leave Porto. However, my boys should leave Norway, and I will ask my wife to check with acquaintances from Cape Verde to see what they have to say about the islands.

Cape Verde is an old Portuguese colony, so there are plenty of people with connections to the islands in our neighborhood. We don't have to fly out to the islands to check the place put. Talking with people from the place will do for now.

My children in Norway are coming down to visit us in Portugal in five weeks from now, and I'll hear what they have to say. They will probably dismiss this as silly. But the idea may grow on them into the winter, and if there is a draft, they may decide to go with my plan.

Being mentally prepared for the worst is never a bad thing. Combined with a flexible attitude and good liquidity, it may even save one's life. As it says in the Bible, the meek shall inherit the world.

Satellite photo of the Cape Verde islands

By Terra (NASA) - http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2010327-1123/CapeVerde.A2010327.1200.250m.jpg, Public Domain, Link

Electric Conditions in and around the Atomic Nucleus

The proton-electron model of the atomic nucleus, used in my work on physics, appears at first sight to be lacking a mechanism to keep nuclei from falling apart due to repelling electric forces between protons. There appears to be a need for a nuclear strong force to overcome the electric force presumed to exist in and around atomic nuclei.

However, the aether model of the electric force has the electric force reduced to zero where no aether exists. The force is weak in the immediate vicinity of charged particles. It's only at some distance from atomic nuclei that the electric force becomes strong, and behaving according to Coulomb's law.

The nuclear strong force can be replace by the short range weak force that I model as texture in my work.

When we pair this with Morton Spears' simple model of the proton, it becomes even more apparent that there's no need for anything beyond this short range weak force. We need only consider the electric conditions in and around the atomic nucleus to see why this is so.

Morton Spears models the proton as an assembly of 2177 positive and negative particle quanta. 1089 are positive and 1088 are negative. The difference of one positive charge constitutes less than 0.05% of the total number of charged particles. This means that from up close, the proton appears to be nearly neutral. There's close to equal distribution of positive and negative quanta. We have to move away from the proton in order for the overall charge of plus 1 to be registered.

This is in contrast to the electron, which is an assembly of 1 positive and 2 negative charges. An electron attached to a proton will appear from up close as a highly charged negative point on a vast and largely neutral surface.

Relative sizes of neutrino, photon, electron and proton

This means that the electron can perform two different functions inside the atomic nucleus. The electron can stick to protons due to the short range effect of texture, and draw protons towards it due to the electric force.

All atomic nuclei can thus be explained.

Atomic nuclei of hydrogen, deuterium, helium, lithium and beryllium

Deuterium is a simple assembly in which two protons are held together by a single electron. The mechanism here is the short range force I model as texture.

Helium is an assembly of two deuterium nuclei pulled together by the electric force. The electron in each deuterium nucleus draws on the protons of their adjacent deuterium nucleus.

Larger nuclei are thus created through a combination of texture and electric force.

Note that two deuterium nuclei will repel each other from a distance. They have to get close enough for the electric force of the protons to fade in order to form helium atoms. This is the challenge scientists have wrestled with for decades in their quest for controlled nuclear fusion.

Note also that we have an explanation for why tritium is a rare and radioactive particle while helium-3 is a stable isotope of helium. The extra electron in the tritium assembly is ejected due to electric repulsion between electrons, and we're left with the stable configuration of a deuterium nucleus and a proton drawn onto it by the single remaining electron.

We also have an explanation for why the tetraneutron is extremely short lived. Electrons eject other electrons from nuclear assemblies if there are too many of them. There's strong electric repulsion between electrons inside the nucleus, and at the same time little electric repulsion between protons.

Morton Spears model of the proton makes it possible to imagine two protons sticking together without an electron. Negative patches on one proton connects with positive patches on the other, and visa versa. However, this never happens. The electric repulsion between protons is weak, but not as weak as the short range force I model as texture.

On a final note, we can point out that both the nuclear strong force and the nuclear weak force are explained by this model. They are both manifestations of particle texture.

Facts and Opinions

Julie Borowski posted an interesting opinion piece on Facebook the other day. She has given up on trying to change the world through politics. Instead, she's focusing on things closer to home. She found her political activism exhausting and draining to the point of being maddening. Focusing on home and family instead, she found sanity and a sense of control.

This is an insight that most people discover at some point. Politics is poison to the mind, and the antidote is to focus on the near and the dear. Instead of trying to change the opinions of others, we focus on bettering ourselves and our circumstances. The results of this are pretty much immediate. Anger and irritation with others disappear, and we find instead joys related to everyday achievements.

However, the opinions of others do matter, so we shouldn't completely give up on our ambitions to change people's minds. But this must be done intelligently so that we avoid maddening irritation.

The key lies in a recognition that politics is all about opinion, and that opinions are pretty much impossible to change except through facts. However, if facts are delivered together with opinions, the focus will always be on our opinions rather than the facts presented. The solution is therefore to present facts without any opinion attached to them.

This may seem simple. However, we are all inclined to confuse our opinions with facts. This is especially true for emotionally laden subjects, such as abortion.

Many will say that abortion is murder. The fetus is a separate individual from the mother. Killing it is therefore murder. But this is not a fact. It's a fact mixed with an opinion.

The fetus is killed. That's a fact. The fetus is a separate individual with its own heart and proto-brain. That too is a fact. But it does not follow from this that killing it is murder. There are plenty of instances where killing someone isn't murder, and abortion advocates can point this out and present their own opinions.

However, if we leave out our opinions. Facts will stand unchallenged. Abortion advocates must either construct a straw man that fills in the opinion part of our argument, or they must explain to themselves why the facts don't matter.

Once we let go of the opinion part of our arguments, we move beyond politics. It's no longer one team against another. We no longer aspire to change anyone's mind. We simply inform people about facts, and it becomes the job of the recipients to either ignore it or incorporate it into their arguments.

Ignoring facts over time is tiresome. It's also pretty much impossible. Most people are by now reluctant to take the booster in the fall. Not because of anti-vaccine opinions, but because of excess deaths.

The connection between the Quran and Islamist violence is also becoming increasingly clear. Not because of anti-Islam opinions, but because more and more people realize that the Quran is a book filled with violence and hate.

Similarly for abortions. Those with strong feelings against the practice need only present facts in order to turn public opinion against it.

The goal of any anarchist is not to change the laws of the land, but to change the opinions of people. Once opinions lean one way or the other, laws don't matter.

Jesus

By Carl Bloch - https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVdd6dZPU3nrHUoYjTuN9VNudnSwm6_ckL4my_jNr9y0jQXOkTeF5lzEN7RsSyiIlatLoriO91OkOEHrVvJ3bToCcmcjVcgQ76Ios4s0OCGS2ivlOP2i3K8L1rG1Svqv2EdEDnGRpLzOC-/s1600/Sermon_on_the_Mount_Carl_Bloch.jpg and Carl Bloch, p. 313, ISBN 9788798746591, Public Domain, Link

Terror in Norway

There's been a terror attack in Norway. A guy went into a gay bar and shot the place up. It's obviously related to the fact that today was supposed to be a big Pride celebration day. Besides, the perpetrator was Muslim, and the Holy Qur'an is quite clear on how to deal with homosexuals. However, one aspects of the event can do with some clarification.

Those familiar with the history of terror in Norway will remember the attack perpetrated by a native Norwegian extremist on July 22 2011. That too seemed like an unprovoked attack by a madman. But it's not entirely correct to say that there was no provocation.

Norway is one of the most conformist countries in the world, and the conformism manifests itself in a passive aggressive manner. The elite will sometimes come up with some cause that they focus their attention on, and they develop it into something that cannot be questioned. The cause they choose is unquestionably good, and anyone saying otherwise is evil.

The cause back in 2011 was the unrestricted immigration of people from Muslim countries. No-one could question this without being labeled an extremist bigot.

Laws were enacted that gave Muslim immigrants preferential treatment over native Norwegians, and this too was something that couldn't be questioned or criticized.

The result of this was that many were fuming with anger that they couldn't direct anywhere. A lone wolf took it upon himself to fix the problem. He blew up the government headquarters, and went subsequently on a shooting spree at a youth camp for the ruling political party.

Eleven years later, and we have a similar situation. Pride month is declared an unquestionable good. Laws are enacted that give the Pride community power to silence critics. Criticizing transgender people can land a person in jail for up to two years. It's also illegal to offer help towards a straight lifestyle. Not even pedophiles are to be offered this kind of help.

This is of course insufferable to people who believe the Pride lifestyle to be sinful, and the outcome of this was the shooting we saw in down town Oslo today.

31 minutes into the attack on July 22 2011

By User:N.Andersen - Private collection, CC0, Link

The Tetraneutron

The tetraneutron is a hypothetical stable cluster of four neutrons. However, such clusters are not supported by current models of nuclear forces, so recent news of its existence is a big deal. It means that something is not quite right about the current models.

I'm no expert in nuclear physics, and my particle theory doesn't have much to say on the matter, so I'm not going to weigh in heavily on this particular particle. However, there are nevertheless some interesting aspects related to this latest discovery that I feel competent enough to comment on.

The tetraneutron is extremely unstable, with a lifetime of just 3x10-22 seconds. This compares to a single free neutron which has a typical lifespan of about 15 minutes, so putting neutrons together in clusters is not adding stability. But why is that so? How is it that atomic nuclei with overall positive charges don't blow apart, but neutral structures like the free neutron and the tetraneutron do?

The conventional answer is that there are special short range forces inside the nucleus that prevent atomic nuclei from falling apart, and that these same forces prevent neutrons from bundling into neutral structures. But this explanation is now challenged due to the short lived, but nevertheless real, tetraneutrons.

An alternative explanation presented in my work is that the electric force does not exist where there's no aether between the particles involved. Atomic nuclei are extremely dense, and can therefore be held together with electrons as glue. There's also no need for protons and electrons to be of equal number to perform this function. Each electron has two negative particle quanta, so a good mix for relatively small atoms is two protons for every electron. Larger nuclei will require more electrons to keep things together.

Translated into the language of conventional physics, we get small nuclei with roughly equal numbers of protons and neutrons, and larger nuclei with somewhat more neutrons than protons. However, my preferred model of the atomic nucleus doesn't treat neutrons as fundamental particles. Neutrons are modelled as protons with an electron attached to them.

Atomic nuclei are bundles of protons and electrons held together by the natural affinity that exists between them due to texture. Instead of short ranged forces, we have a mechanism similar to Velcro.

With little electric repulsion between particles that make up atomic nuclei, the relatively weak Velcro-like affinity that exist between negative and positive particles is sufficient to keep things together. However, the larger a nucleus becomes, the more of a role plays the electric force. This is especially so between the electrons which are spread out relative to protons.

If there's too many electrons in a nucleus, an electron may be ejected by the repelling force of other electrons in the nucleus, and we get what's known as beta decay. This loss of an electron may cause the nucleus to fall apart for lack of "glue", and we have radioactive decay in the form of fission.

Seen in this light, tetraneutron decay is a form of beta decay. The structure blows apart due to strong repelling forces between electrons.

On a related note, we can only wonder at the notion of neutron stars, which are supposedly nothing but giant balls of neutrons held together by gravity. If a single neutron decays within 15 minutes, and a structure of four neutrons collapse within 3x10-22 seconds, how is it that neutron stars remain stable for millions of years?

Free neutron decay

Fact Checking Alternative Views on Astrophysics

Facebook has now started fact checking alternative views on astrophysics. Theories that don't conform to standard interpretations are being tagged as "false". This happens even if the issuer of the alternative view is open about the fact that the view expressed is controversial and contrary to accepted dogma.

This is quite a leap. Not only is Facebook able to tell us that certain types of medication are safe and effective when no such tests have been made. They are also able to tell us which theories in astrophysics are "true" and which theories are "false".

By Facebook, Inc. - http://en.facebookbrand.com, Public Domain, Link

Monkeypox During Pride Month

There's still not a single death due to the current Monkeypox outbreak. That's astonishing, given that there's now more than 3700 confirmed cases. Clearly, we're not dealing with the original Monkeypox that had a mortality rate of 10%. This disease may develop in the same manner as the original one, but no-one dies. A few blisters is as bad as it gets.

This may be the reason no-one worries about the exponential rise in cases that has happened during Pride month. We've gone from 700 at the beginning of this month to 3700 cases at present, and the hard core partying has only started.

Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Monkeypox spreads almost exclusively among homosexual men, living the Pride lifestyle with little to no restraint. Without the proper venues and arrangements, the disease would not spread nearly as fast as it does. However, the same people who locked us down for the flu are now actively encouraging widespread Pride themed partying over the St. John's weekend.

From what we know about Monkeypox, it takes about 14 days from the day of infection until the disease becomes bothersome to the infected. Hence, there's a delay in the official infection numbers. Any increase in infections over this coming weekend will only be noticed in the statistics around July 9.

We're currently in a phase where cases double every 10 to 11 days, so we can expect about 8000 cases on July 9. If we get numbers much above this, we can assume that the partying during this weekend is to blame. However, if the numbers come in at or below 8000, we can make the optimistic prediction that the outbreak has peaked. With fewer raves and Pride parties, the rate of increase will decline, and the disease may stop spreading altogether.

Monkeypox

By not listed - http://phil.cdc.gov (CDC's Public Health Image Library) Media ID #2329, Public Domain, Link

Waning Trust in Government

The number of mask wearers out in the streets are now so few that I expect the practice to collapse any day now. Once wearing the things go from a sign of virtue to an embarrassment, the practice will collapse.

I'd be surprised to see the practice make a comeback from the current levels. The novelty and sense of righteousness is gone. When first mandated by government goons, there were hobby fascists everywhere, confronting anyone not wearing their mask according to protocol. Those days aren't coming back. The practice has become a personal choice thing.

The same goes for the vaccine. The peer pressure is long gone. Taking the experimental injection is no longer a public matter open to debate. It's no longer any of our business what vaccine status some tennis player may have. There's no virtue associated with public declarations of disgust against people who refuse to inject themselves with the drug.

The shift in sentiment started before there was a widespread awareness of the consequences wrought by the mandates. But the shift is gathering momentum now that the consequences are becoming increasingly hard to ignore.

This month looks set to become as bad as June 2020 and June 2021 when it comes to notable deaths. More people than normal are meeting God, aka nature. Many are starting to realize that restricting oxygen supply to our lungs comes with consequences. Experimental injections aren't all that safe either.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

But the banquet of consequences isn't limited to excess deaths. Two years of lockdowns, papered over by money printing, has consequences too. Small businesses have been devastated. There's financial ruin. There's also price inflation due to lack of production and increased money supply.

We're looking at widespread destruction wrought by politicians, and trust in government is therefore at all time low. The next wave of mandates will be far harder to sell, and evidence for this can be seen in how quickly public support for Ukraine has faded.

Most people now want a negotiated end to the war. They don't buy the "Russia is pure evil" narrative.

It's becoming increasingly hard to pull the government's favorite trick, where a desired outcome is decided upon in secret, and then executed through a four step program:

1. Bombard the public with a myopic opinion about a real or fictitious danger.
2. Follow up with a poll where the public is asked about their opinion.
3. Note that there's a majority in favor of the myopic opinion.
4. Execute the policies demanded by the public.

With less confidence in government and their friends in media and "science", this trick becomes harder to pull. People are tired of government inventing one crisis after another. We want it to end so that we can go back to focusing on our own things.

The social contract

Evidence of a Late Start to Summer

Paris is experiencing unusually hot weather for the time of year. A similar situation was reported in Spain a few days ago, and we had an unusually hot day here in Portugal a few weeks back as well.

These hot days are referred to as heat waves by the press, even though they don't last more than a day or two. They're proof of global warming, they claim. However, there's no proof whatsoever that what we're seeing has anything to do with a warmer climate. At least not in Portugal.

If the climate was getting warmer, we would see flowers bursting earlier than usual in spring. However, the very opposite has been the case this year.

I took this picture of my bougainvillea on April 30 last year.

Bougainvillea April 30, 2021

And I took this picture of my wax plant on June 20 2021, exactly one year ago:

Wax plant June 20, 2021

Both pictures display flowers that were about a week ahead in development compared to this year. The few hot days we've had this spring didn't make up for the many cool days. The hot days are therefore evidence of instability, rather than warmer climate.

This picture was taken on June 26 2020, indicating that 2020 had almost as late a start to summer as this year:

Wax plant June 26, 2020

This is something anyone can check for themselves. Find pictures of flowers with associated dates, and compare them to the progress made by the same plants in the current year. If the pictures show more progress than the current year, we have a late spring. If the opposite is the case, we're having an early spring.

This was how people talked about the weather when I was a kid. No-one made a big deal out of it. They would remark on the differences between one year an the other as a curiosity. Everybody knew that spring comes sometimes early and other times late.

Further evidence that nothing alarming is happening can be found by checking a web-camera in a climate sensitive area. This one at Dyranut in Norway is situated at a place that sometimes sees snow in the middle of summer. The snow normally melts away completely by July, only to return in late September.

If the climate is getting warmer, snow at Dyranut should disappear earlier and come back later, but this isn't happening. If anything, this year's summer looks a few days late, just like here in Porto.

Hardangerjøkulen glacier

By Berland - Own work, CC BY 2.5, Link

Never Before in Bitcoin History

I've predicted the imminent demise of Bitcoin ever since 2017, so I should be careful making any more predictions about its near term prospects. However, there's a few things worth noting about the latest drawdown in its price, which is now lower than its peak of almost $20,000 back in late 2017.

• In its 12-year trading history, Bitcoin has never before dropped below previous cycle peaks.
• The nearest support band below $20,000 is around $10,000.
• There is no such thing as oversold when it comes to things that no-one needs.

If Bitcoin fails to break above $20,000 in the short term, we're likely heading for $10,000, which will set up a new pattern in the Bitcoin chart; namely a left shoulder and a head, with a neck-line at $10,000.

This pattern will take five years to develop to its conclusion, and has a good chance of ending in a further drop. That's five lost years of potential gains elsewhere. It's also five years of changes in technology, which will make Bitcoin even more outdated than it is today.

Brass token currently priced at about $19,500

By Steve Jurvetson - https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/8410385932/in/photostream/, CC BY 2.0, Link

Romanticizing Off Grid Living

My wife forwarded this video to me the other day. It's about a young couple living off grid in Portugal.

The impression given is that of simple living in harmony with nature. But it's also clear that these people are not living off the land. Their garden, however impressive, is not a major factor in their household. Their lifestyle is a cute hobby that they're likely to tire of relatively soon.

Their tiny house is not a place to raise a family, and it's clear from the clothes that the protagonist wears that she's used to better comforts than what her camping lifestyle affords her.

Life in the country can be deadly boring, and is not something people normally choose for themselves unless there's something to compensate for the monotony. The nearby village needs to be lively enough for some entertainment. Their house needs to be large and comfortable.

For this, they need to make money on the side, and from the look of it, that's how the couple have arranged things for themselves. They work remotely, while camping out in their mini-home.

Having watched the video, I told my wife what I thought of it, and she agrees. We're not going to try anything like this. We may one day buy a small place with a garden. But that will be somewhere relatively close to Porto. It will be a proper house, close to a supermarket, a village center and a beach.

Matosinhos beach

Another Relatively Wet and Cool Spring in Portugal

The drought we had in Portugal during the winter months is now definitely a thing of the past. We've had a relatively cool and wet spring, and June has been no exception. The weather has been unusually grey, and the forecast is for this to continue for a while still.

However, this is the third or fourth year in a row with this pattern, so it's starting to become more of a norm than an exception. I had no trouble predicting this weather back in January and March.

It increasingly looks like we're getting the weather patterns associated with more northerly regions, which is fine with me. I prefer winters to be dry and sunny over wet and miserable, and I don't mind trading this benefit with cooler and wetter weather during spring and summer.

Greta Thunberg

Eco-anxiety - By Anders Hellberg - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Shortages of Print Paper

There's a shortage of print paper in Portugal at the moment. I picked up this fact from a friend of my wife in the advertisement and publishing business.

The shortage is due to disruptions to the supply of wood pulp from Russia.

The paper industry has been in decline for decades, and only the cheapest suppliers of pulp are still in business. Pulp producers everywhere else have shut down their activities. Forestry in many countries have also been impacted.

This means that only Russia is still in the pulp production business. When sanctions against Russia hit, the supply of this vital raw material stopped.

The effect of this particular sanction was pretty much immediate. Once paper stocks in warehouses was sold out, deliveries stopped.

This illustrates the damage made to businesses by the sanctions. It also highlights the fragility of a global economy dependent on single suppliers. Myopic focus on cost cutting has left an entire industry exposed to shocks of this kind.

What we're also seeing is the likely medium term impact of sanctions against Russia. With paper, the impact came almost over night. However, sanctions against Russian fertilizers will not work its way through the supply chain before this fall. There's a six months delay between fertilizer shortages, and food shortages.

We're currently living in the interim before food shortages kick in.

Gleaners

By Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F004601-0004 / Enzen / CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, Link

Putin on TV

My wife and I were surprised to see direct coverage on TV of Putin's latest speech. Why would a Portuguese national broadcaster do such a thing?

This comes on top of the Portuguese prime minister being opposed to the inclusion of Ukraine in the EU, and the Pope refusing to call Putin a heartless crook for invading Ukraine.

The fierce anti-Putin sentiment that prevails in the US and the West at large is not equally strong in the South. The Latin world is drifting away from its protestant neighbors to the north and west.

Brazil, which is to Portugal what the US is to the UK, is a BRIC country, so its not a complete surprise to see Portuguese sentiments drift towards a more neutral stance when it comes to Russia. It's also becoming increasingly clear that the West has lost its mind. Much of what Putin said on TV resonates heavily with sentiments in Portugal.

There appears to be a shift, and a fragmentation towards a multi polar world order. Former colonial powers and empires will re-establish links that have been severed over the last century. The new arrangements will be based on mutual benefits in trade. Culture will be an important determining factor in how things pan out.

Portugal will hook up with Brazil, Angola, Mozambique and East Timor, and a host of other countries. Spain will re-establish ties with Mexico and other former colonies. The Italians will revive the silk route together with Turks, Persians, Russians, Indians and the Chinese. Historically successful configurations will re-emerge.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

The Effect of Interest Rates on Prices

The Fed hiked interest rates in the US by 0.75% yesterday. The stated aim of this is to reduce the rate at which prices for everyday consumer goods are going up. But will this work as intended?

Interest rates have been going down ever since 1981, and consumer prices haven't gone up by more than about 2% annually until recently, so there doesn't seem to be a direct link between price increases in stores and interest rates set by the Fed. There's no historic evidence to suggest that the price of consumer goods will go down if interest rates go up. However, logic tells us that the opposite may happen.

Producers of basic commodities use credit to run their operations. Farmers borrow money to pay for seeds and animal feed, so an increase in interest rates is an increase in cost of production. Their response will be to either cut back on production or increase their asking price. Either way, prices can be expected to go up as a consequence of higher interest rates.

If the people at the Fed believe that higher interest rates are necessary in order to curb consumer prices, they will continue to hike interest rates in response to higher prices on everyday consumer goods. We get a vicious cycle that continues until something breaks.

The Fed derives its power over people from the fact that just about everyone is in debt. They can increase or reduce the cost of this debt at will, from a centralized position. However, the effect is not equal for everyone, nor is it equal for every aspect of the economy.

The online entertainment business did well during our state imposed vacation. Everyone was at home, watching streamed videos. The cost of this was covered by state subsidies. Now that the subsidies have dried up and the cost of credit has gone up, this type of entertainment will be cut from people's budgets. Given the choice between food and entertainment, food comes out as the obvious winner.

The result of this is that the price of online entertainment will go down. Such businesses must cut costs and fire people. Share prices of such companies will go down. When looking at this segment of the economy, the response to higher interest rates is lower prices. However, this does little to reduce prices for essentials, because online entertainment isn't a big cost factor for the average farmer.

Higher interest rates forces everybody to cut down on costs. Consumers will delay purchases and cut discretionary spending. Any business dependent on this type of consumption will find it hard to find customers. They will fire people and cut costs. Things like houses and cars, which are typically bought with credit, will see a drop in demand.

With interest rates going up, it becomes less desirable to buy financial assets with credit. The financial sector will see deleveraging. People will sell assets to cover debt. All financial assets will be impacted by this, but industries dependent on discretionary spending and credit will be the hardest hit.

The effect of higher interest rates will hit unevenly, with consumer prices continuing up, and just about everything else crashing. People will see the value of their homes and financial assets drop relative to their cost of living. Many will find themselves unemployed, with little to no savings to cushion the blow.

The only bright spot in this is a stronger dollar, making imports less expensive than they would otherwise be. However, with inflation still higher than interest rates, the demand for dollar denominated assets will be muted. Why hold bonds with negative real yields when there's an alternative?

The US has abused its monopoly position as issuer of the world's reserve currency. Foreign states and large corporations know that US assets may be confiscated or frozen. Physical gold seems like a safe alternative.

Smaller actors will also pick up on this fact. Why hold speculative assets that may go to zero when there's gold for which there will always be demand? Nobody needs Bitcoin to get married. But without a gold ring, marriage is difficult, if not impossible.

The bottom line is that an increase in interest rates sends prices down for just about everything except essentials and gold. Commodities, energy, food and gold will continue up, and there's very little the Fed can do about it.

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

The Complexity Trap

There's a lot of confusion when it comes to the role and significance of complexity. The biggest misconception is that complexity is a sign of progress. We are better off living in a modern society, full of complexities, as opposed to simpler but less affluent societies of the past. Many conclude from this that it is the complexity that added comforts and affluence to our lives.

However, it's not complexity that made modern societies preferable to past ones. It's the efficiencies achieved that did that. A great deal of progress is due to a removal of complexities. The internet being a good example of this.

We can now look things up on the web when we wonder about things. We save ourselves hours of time trying to find the right books in the library. Internet made life in this way less complex.

The complexity inherent in the internet technology is hidden from us, and that's a good thing because complexity is something we want as little of as possible. Complexity is a wasteful bi-product of progress, and should be treated as such.

This is why I'm enthusiastic about the internet, but skeptical to many of its applications. My pet hate is crypto-currencies, which are way more complex than the bare minimum required for wealth preservation.

There's no simpler way to store wealth than to own some physical gold. Hence, any derivative of this is inherently wasteful. Paper gold, ETFs, and future contracts may have their place. But they are more complex than the metal itself.

Fiat money is a step farther away from simplicity. It requires legal tender laws, taxation and central banking; systems that add nothing of value, but heaps of complexity.

Crypto is even worse. No-one understand it completely. There's no inherent need for it. It consumes energy. It cannot be held in our hands. It's a complete waste, yet people ascribe value to it, mainly due to their muddled understanding of complexity.

Complexity requires intelligence to be understood, so people think that complexity is a sign of intelligence. They may not understand the system before them. But they see the complexity of it, and they assume that this is due to some higher purpose.

This is an age old trick. Make a machine look complex and fancy, and people will believe it to have special powers. The con-artist can then get away with all sorts of claim, because only he is smart enough to fully understand the intricacies of his creation.

If sufficiently impressed, some will buy the story and the product, because that's the smart thing to do. Having bought into the scam, they talk highly of it. They admit to not understanding it fully. But they were smart enough to get in early. Never mind that there are far simpler alternatives to the product at hand. Complexity is a sign of progress.

This can in turn become a self fulfilling prophecy. The scam balloons into a bubble of massive proportions. Complexity really is a sign of progress! The more complex the better! Why not introduce Bitcoin futures and Bitcoin ETFs? Heck, why not make a lending platform like Celsius?

But complexity is in reality a waste product. It burns energy. It consumes resources. It muddles facts. It obscures truth. If nothing is added in the way of convenience and simplicity, complex solutions collapse.

The tower of Babel is a story about this. It was a stupid project from the start, and it collapsed. Nothing of value was created by the project. Once this was fully understood, people went their separate ways.

This is about to happen again. Once the true nature of complexity is understood, people will turn to simplicity for solutions, and they will find it in gold, productive land and capital goods capable of producing life necessities.

Tower of Babel

By Pieter Bruegel the Elder - Levels adjusted from File:Pieter_Bruegel_the_Elder_-_The_Tower_of_Babel_(Vienna)_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg, originally from Google Art Project., Public Domain, Link

Zero Deaths from Monkeypox

Monkeypox is supposedly very dangerous. The mortality rate is about 10%. Yet, the current outbreak has seen zero deaths so far despite more than 1600 confirmed cases.

This is reminiscent of the virus scare of 2020, where people dropped dead in the streets in China but not in Europe.

Whatever the current Monkeypox outbreak is, it's not the deadly variant found in Africa. It's either a mild version of this disease, or some other disease altogether.

Monkeypox

By not listed - http://phil.cdc.gov (CDC's Public Health Image Library) Media ID #2329, Public Domain, Link

Plain Sailing

Having just sold my house in Norway back in 2017, I was faced with the task of choosing investment vehicles for my proceeds. This was in a time of fever pitch enthusiasm for Bitcoin, and I was everywhere advised to put at least some money into this. However, I chose to do the following instead:

1. Pay down all debt, including my wife's debt
2. Put aside enough cash for 2 years of consumption 
3. Put the rest in gold

Had I chosen Bitcoin instead of gold, I would have been just as well off in monetary terms as I am with my gold at the moment. It can therefore be argued that my choice has made no difference. However, this is not true. My choice has been the better one by far. The reason for this is that it matters a lot how we get from one point to another.

Our goal is to preserve and grow our wealth, and wealth is not strictly monetary. Wealth is just as much about how we feel about things. Wealthy individuals are relaxed and secure, and they attain this mental stability from the stability of their investments.

Had I chosen Bitcoin instead of gold, I would have had to endure a 60% drop relative to gold, followed by a 2000% jump, and a subsequent drop of 60%. The drop would have made me depressed. The jump would have made me euphoric, and the recent drop would have again thrown me into a depression. That's one hell of an emotional rollercoaster.

When we compare this to gold, we see that I have in fact been far more wealthy with my gold than what I would have been with Bitcoin. I have lost no sleep to depression, nor euphoria. I check the price of gold every now and again, but never with dread or excitement. Up days give me a kick. Down days are disappointing. But I'm never thrown off balance. No-one needs to be a Zen master to retain their cool when looking at gold charts.

Some may argue that I've missed out on a lot of trading opportunities. But that's missing the point. Traders are constantly looking at charts while actively controlling their emotions. It's stressful and uncomfortable. It's also time consuming. By my definition of wealth, traders are poor.

I spend virtually no time looking at charts, and I don't need to actively control my emotions. I spend my days doing stuff I like, and I hardly ever worry about anything. I attain my Zen from the stability and security inherent in my investment portfolio. By my definition of wealth, I'm rich.

The quickest way to riches is not through trading, but through sensible allocations. Done correctly, a sense of wealth takes hold of us early, long before we are rich in monetary terms. We attain our Zen, and our wealth increases, both emotionally and monetarily.

Wax plant

Keeping an Eye on Monkeypox

Monkeypox isn't getting much attention at the moment. That's either because this month is Pride month, or because the disease isn't spreading. However, a quick look at the below chart tells us that the disease is still spreading, and therefore a potential threat.

The media silence is either due to misplaced reverence towards a lifestyle that spreads Monkeypox, or part of a deliberate effort to propel the spread out of the confines of homosexual men and into the general public.

A spread beyond the confines of hardcore Pride people comes with obvious benefits to pharmaceutical companies. Millions of dollars can be made if Monkeypox vaccines can be mandated onto the population, so it's not unthinkable that this is the motive.

But we should not get too hung up in possible motives. Let's instead analyze the chart so that we'll know which way things are likely to go.

First thing to look for is whether the curve is exponential or not. We see that there were 100 cases on May 20, and more than 200 cases on May 25. May 30 saw more than 400 cases. June 4 saw more than 800 cases.

That's an exponential growth, indicating that the spread is out of control. However, June 9 did not reach 1600 cases. The number came in at about 1300. That's a slow down in the spread.

Note that the chart is cumulative. The numbers will never go down. The end of the outbreak will be reflected in the chart as a flat line. A drop in new cases will show up as a slower growth. The slow down may in other words signal that the peak is already in.

It remains to be seen if Pride month will revive the exponential growth in numbers. But current numbers are cause for optimism. The population has not been sufficiently weakened for the disease to spread beyond the most vulnerable among us. 

Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Renewed Interest in Sudden Adult Death Syndrome

I first wrote about Sudden Adult Death Syndrome back in September 2021, and I have since monitored the phrase on Google trends. My suspicion was back then that we would see the phrase spring into the public consciousness at some later time. That would fit the play book of a psyop, where scary stories are first mentioned quietly, and subsequently pronounced loudly nine to fifteen months later.

The goal of any psyop is to make the target audience scared and insecure, and this can be achieved by first playing down a story and subsequently making it into a big deal. The target audience is in this manner programmed to be forever weary of rumors and anxious as to their relevance. Mass hysteria can thus be created.

As to the reality of SADS, we can find clues in Wikipedia's data on notable deaths.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

We see an elevated death rate among young people in May and June of 2021. That's twelve months ago, and the % rate has gone down ever since. Why then was the first mention of this syndrome in September, and why has the story reappeared now? Above all, why is the reader treated as an idiot, incapable of making the connection between government policies and the increase?

We are dealing with old news of little value to anyone. Its only purpose is to scare, bewilder and confuse.

Similarly, we have Monkeypox which appeared first in news stories a year ago, only to reemerge as news last month. However, someone must have forgotten about Pride month. Monkeypox spreads among people living the Pride lifestyle, and that doesn't jive well with Pride month. The story is therefore laid silent for a few weeks to let the Pride crowd enjoy their raves and discos with no worries.

Once Pride month is over, expect renewed focus on Monkeypox. Until then, we can all go out and rave as much as we want.

Three wise monkeys

By Kalyan Shah - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Structural Misogyny in the NHS

The NHS in England has inadvertently revealed itself to be a misogynist organization, eager to belittle women to the point of hardly mentioning them at all. This becomes clear when we compare the language used to describe diseases unique to either men or women.

Their web pages on ovarian cancer use the word women a total of 3 times. They also mention trans persons as people who can get this type of cancer. However, their pages on prostate cancer makes no mention of trans people, and they use the word men no less than 18 times.

The underlying message is clear. Women are not to be seen, heard or mentioned. Men, on the other hand, are treated as complete human beings.

Logo of the NHS used in England

By The original uploader was F at English Wikipedia. - See NHS identity guidelines, Public Domain, Link

Putin's Threat

Ukraine has lost some 20% of its territory to the Russians, and the response by the West has been to send the Ukrainians more advanced weapons with longer range. However, the West has refrained from sending weapons with long enough range to reach targets well inside Russia.

Weapons currently sent to the Ukrainians can hit targets immediately inside Russia, but not much beyond that. The West is escalating the fighting, but only gradually so not to provoke Putin to the point of acting on his threat to hit targets outside of Ukraine.

Putin is known to be a man of his words. When he says that something will happen, it usually does happen. So when he said that decision making centers beyond Kiev will be targeted if there are attacks on Russian soil, he likely meant it. But what targets were Putin having in mind? How and where could Putin strike beyond Kiev without risking an all out war with the West?

The answers to these questions may be found in the way the West has targeted Russian decision making centers. Western intelligence has been fed to the Ukrainians, and used to kill top ranking Russian officers. Could it be that the Russians have the intelligence to respond in kind, but the good sense to refrain from this kind of tactic?

It would be foolish of Putin to order an attack on a big target inside the US, so I doubt that there will be a bomb dropped on the Pentagon, even if a Russian sub could do such a thing. NATO's headquarters in Brussels are similarly unlikely to be hit.

The targets need to be of a kind that don't provoke popular support for a direct confrontation with Russia. They must either be so anonymous that no-one cares, or so unpopular that no-one objects.

Furthermore, attacks must be done in such a way that they're either impossible to trace back to Russia, or so well announced in advance that no-one is surprised when they happen. We're looking at car accidents that kill high ranking NATO officers, or attacks so well announced that no-one gets hurt.

In the case of well announced attacks, they need to be done with such force and precision that the inspire awe and fear. The public response should ideally put pressure on politicians to set an end to the fighting in Ukraine.

There is no lack of unpopular and/or anonymous officers for the Russians to target. However, we have no idea whether the Russians have the means to take them out on an individual basis. But if they can do this, Putin may at some point name the person he has in mind, and then follow up with a targeted assassination. If so, the person must not be too famous, or Putin himself will be targeted. It's better to go for someone that hardly anyone has heard of.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link

Notable Deaths in May

With May behind us, we now have another month of notable deaths to analyze.

Deaths among those younger than 70 years of age compares to previous years as follows:

• 22.26% in May 2018
• 21.97% in May 2019
• 23.71% in May 2020
• 25.95% in May 2021
• 23.70% in May 2022

When we look at absolute numbers for May we get the following:

• 575 in May 2018
• 619 in May 2019
• 814 in May 2020
• 883 in May 2021
• 692 in May 2022

Using a severity formula that divides old deaths by 10 and multiplies young deaths by 4 we get the following:

• 557 in May 2018
• 592 in May 2019
• 834 in May 2020
• 981 in May 2021
• 709 in May 2022

We see that May 2021 was the worst, with May 2020 second. Numbers for May 2022 are better than 2020 and 2021, but still elevated relative to 2018 and 2019. There's also no sign of improvement since April 2022.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

Here are the numbers:

---

May 2022:

• 20s = 8 = 1.16%
• 30s = 15 = 2.17%
• 40s = 15 = 2.17%
• 50s = 50 = 7.23%
• 60s = 76 = 10.98%
• 70s = 161 = 23.27%
• 80s = 204 = 29.48%
• 90s = 136 = 19.65%
• 100+ = 27 = 3.90%

Total = 692; Younger than 70 = 23.70%

May 2021:

• 20s = 6 = 0.68%
• 30s = 17 = 1.93%
• 40s = 37 = 4.19%
• 50s = 52 = 5.89%
• 60s = 117 = 13.25%
• 70s = 173 = 19.59%
• 80s = 272 = 30.80%
• 90s = 184 = 20.84%
• 100+ = 25 = 2.83%

Total = 883; Younger than 70 = 25.94%

May 2020:

• 20s = 11 = 1.35%
• 30s = 12 = 1.47%
• 40s = 18 = 2.21%
• 50s = 52 = 6.39%
• 60s = 100 = 12.29%
• 70s = 194 = 23.83%
• 80s = 240 = 29.48%
• 90s = 171 = 21.01%
• 100+ = 16 = 1.86%

Total = 814; Younger than 70 = 23.71%

May 2019:

• 20s = 6 = 0.97%
• 30s = 8 = 1.29%
• 40s = 13 = 2.10%
• 50s = 31 = 5.01%
• 60s = 78 = 12.60%
• 70s = 152 = 24.56%
• 80s = 187 = 30.21%
• 90s = 131 = 21.16%
• 100+ = 13 = 2.10%

Total = 619; Younger than 70 = 21.97%

May 2018:

• 20s = 2 = 0.35%
• 30s = 9 = 1.57%
• 40s = 10 = 1.74%
• 50s = 36 = 6.26%
• 60s = 71 = 12.35%
• 70s = 125 = 21.74%
• 80s = 191 = 33.22%
• 90s = 121 = 21.04%
• 100+ = 10 = 1.74%

Total = 575; Younger than 70 = 22.26%

Wikipedia

CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Dipole Gravity

Newton assumes in his work that gravity is a monopole acting with equal force in all directions, regardless of intervening matter. These assumptions are central to his shell theorem which puts the center of gravity at the center of astronomic bodies regardless of the position of an observer.

However, this assumption is not well tested. While we observe gravity to be an attracting force wherever we look, it's not a given that this force is without a directional component. For instance, gravity may act most strongly perpendicular to the surface of bodies.

If gravity has a directional component, as the case would be for dipole gravity, the center of gravity for large spherical bodies will be dependent on the position of observers.

Center of gravity relative to position

In the above example, observer A sees the center of gravity located at a. Observer B sees the center of gravity at b. Being farther away from the surface, he sees the center of gravity located closer to the geometrical center. Observer C sees the gravitational center at c, which is even closer to the geometrical center.

Gravity drops off more quickly at low altitudes than Newton predicted in his work. We get Newtonian results for our satellites and Moon, and we get Newtonian results at the surface. But we get a quicker drop off in gravity in between.

Any astronomic body with a dipole component to its gravity would exhibit this non-Newtonian gravity near its surface. Orbits low enough to be affected by it will be faster than Newton predicted.

This opens for an alternative explanation for the Mercury anomaly. It may not be due to curved time-space as Einstein suggested, or smaller clocks as I've suggested. It may instead be due to dipole gravity. Mercury makes its rounds around the Sun faster than predicted by Newton because it's close enough to the Sun to be affected by its dipole gravity.

Earth, on the other hand, may have this anomaly limited to altitudes within its atmosphere, and the turbulence of our atmosphere has made this escape detection. However, a simple test can verify or dismiss this hypothesis. What's required is a balloon or airplane capable of smooth flight, a precise altitude meter and a precise gravity meter. It's so simple to perform that it must have been done many times already. Yet, results are strangely hard to find.

As for the source of this hypothetical dipole gravity, there's plenty of room for speculations. If matter has a shielding effect on gravity, we have dipole gravity simply due to shielding. People like Peter Woodhead and Wal Thornhill have speculated that gravity is a dipole by nature.

I have suggested that charged matter has stronger gravity than neutral matter. If so, we can expect a dipole component due to capacitance because capacitance is a dipole phenomenon.

Uncharged and charged capacitor

When a capacitor is charged, as illustrated above, the dielectric comes under stress and we get a directional component. This will result in gravity being stronger straight up than to the sides.

When we apply this to astronomic bodies, which are charged spherical capacitors, they too will have this directional component. We get gravity acting with a dipole component perpendicular to the surface of these bodies. The result is dipole gravity due to electric charge.