The Problem with Social Experiments

My wife and I went for a walk along the sea today, and we noticed that hardly anyone wears the mask anymore even though flu season is on its way. It appears that everyone but the most wilfully ignorant have figured out by now that we've been subjected to an experiment. Some seriously dark magic was thrown at us in an effort to make us do things against our best interest.

However, the experiment was cut short for reasons that remain obscure. Those behind the push to subjugate us did an about face at the very moment when victory was within their reach. They had everything worked out. Businesses were implementing segregation procedures based on valid health certificates, and many countries had concentration camps for the unvaccinated up and running. Why didn't they finish what they started when they had their chance?

Some may say that they didn't push through with it because there was no immediate need to do so. The experiment was wildly successful as it was, and proof that they can subjugate us whenever they find it convenient. People have become soulless beings with no will and no foresight, and hence easy to control. That's all they needed to know.

But this isn't how social experiments work. It's impossible to run a social experiment twice with the same outcome because humans have memory and intelligence.

We now know that a sudden push to do something for the common good is unlikely to be in our best interest. We see otherwise healthy people pass out or drop dead for no good reasons. There's an excess of deaths in the population, and it's sufficiently big for everybody to notice. Just about everybody knows at least one person that have fallen mysteriously ill since the experiment was carried out, and our faith in the political and scientific establishment has vaned substantially as a consequence.

If an experiment like the one we've just been through was to be executed today, the compliance will not be the same. We won't see close to 90% of everybody allow themselves to be injected with something that's neither well tested nor proven to do anything but reduce the symptoms of a relative benign illness. People are not very smart, but they're not that stupid either.

Ludwig von Mises pointed this out a hundred years ago. While we can look at society as a fairly uniform and unintelligent whole, society is in the final analysis nothing but individuals acting according to their best judgements. Society as such doesn't act. All action is done by individuals, and they have both memory and intelligence. When an experiment is executed. The memory and intelligence kicks in, and the outcome ends up different from the first run.

In the case of an experiment very much to the detriment of everyone involved, we must expect the outcome of a second run to be widely different from the first run, and this is especially true if we see a general awakening. If people start realizing the power of will and foresight, it's game over for the political elite and their plan to put us all in chains.

Ludwig von Mises

By Ludwig von Mises Institute - Ludwig von Mises Institute. Originally from en.wikipedia; description page is/was here. Original uploader was DickClarkMises at en.wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Viking Heaven

It never made any sense to me that only Viking warriors would go to heaven. The vast majority of Scandinavians were not warriors. Were they really all going to Helheim, that dreadful place where there's no hope and no salvation?

Besides Valhalla doesn't sound like a place I'd want to go. It's full of testosterone filed warriors eating, drinking and fighting, preparing for a great battel to come. Not exactly my idea of heaven.

Now that I'm looking more into Norse mythology, I've come to realize that the whole Valhalla thing is blown way out of proportions. It wasn't the only heaven. It wasn't the most important heaven. It wasn't even the heaven for most warriors. It was a place reserved only for people who truly enjoy a fight. Everybody else went to Folkvanger to be with Freya, the goddess of love.

That this was the way Scandinavians thought of things is evident from the way they buried people. Graveyards were shaped like ships, and these ships were called Sessrumnir, which means seats for many people. The graveyard itself was a ship. Those buried in it were going on a journey, and their destination was Folkvangr.

We know this because there's a palace in Folkvangr called Sessrumnir. It's the name of Freya's palace. 

This means that anyone buried in holy ground would go to heaven, where they would be with Freya.

But what to do with those lost at sea, or dead in battle? That issue was solved by the invention of Valkyries. They were angles who'd bring such people to heaven.

But who were these Valkyries working for?

It appears that they were working for Freya. Default destination for those dead in battle or otherwise lost was Folkvangr. Only those who were truly keen on fighting were sent to Valhalla, and only those who had died disgracefully were left for Hel to bring down to Helheim.

This makes a lot more sense than what we're regularly told. It's also evident that Christian custom is pretty much identical. We have graveyards with sacred ground. It's important to be buried there, because it brings safe passage to heaven. Warriors and people otherwise lost can also be saved by the ritual of praying. Only those who've lived and died dishonourably go to Hell.

Valhalla

By Max Brückner (1836-1919) - [1], Public Domain, Link

Seidr as Foresight and Will

One of the fun things I've encountered while writing my new novel is the sort of things I come across when I look up things on the web.

Having had to brush up on my knowledge of Norse mythology, I've come to better understand the overall logic of that religion. It's not as farfetched as it appears at first. Nor is it as focused on war and violence as we're led to believe. There are plenty of ways to get to heaven beside a noble death on the battlefield.

Much of the magic encountered in the stories isn't that magical either. Seidr, which is the most common magic used, is a way to both see and change the future. That means that in its most basic form, Seidr is nothing but foresight and will. It's the way we direct our lives in an uncertain world. Rather than being tossed about willy-nilly, we make plans based on expected future events.

I have repeatedly suggested on this blog that we should make a habit of making predictions so as to profit from our foresight. That, as it turns out, is to encourage the practice of basic Seidr magic.

Making predictions

By John William Waterhouse - http://uploads6.wikiart.org/images/john-william-waterhouse/the-crystal-ball-1902.jpg http://www.wikiart.org/en/john-william-waterhouse/the-crystal-ball-1902, Public Domain, Link

Writing Romantic Fiction

I've always wanted to write fiction. However, I've found it surprisingly difficult every time I've tried. There's too much to keep in mind, too much to invent, and too many details.

There's also the issue of style. Is the story primarily meant as entertainment or as a statement? If I want to make a point about something, I might as well write a blog post, and if it's mere entertainment it becomes tedious to write. So, I gave up on the idea, thinking that it's just a childish fancy that I'm better off ignoring.

But then it struck me the other day that I should simply base my novel on things I know a fair bit about. I'm pretty well versed in history, and I know a good deal about Norse mythology. Why not mix the two?

This has the great advantage that all sorts of details are available for me to use. I don't have to invent anything beyond the main characters and their struggles within the historic and mythological backdrop.

As it turned out, I was able to sketch out a rather elaborate story in no more than two days, and I've now started the process of fleshing out the story into chapters.

I've already written two chapters, and I hope to add a new chapter every day or two going forward.

This means that I'll spend less time writing posts on this blog. However, there will be all the more to read for those who don't mind reading light romantic literature. The interested reader can follow me at "Dreufey's Song", where the book will grow chapter by chapter until completed.

Idunn and Bragi

By Nils Blommér - uploaded from Wikipedia.org, Public Domain, Link

Covid Strain with an 80% Kill Rate in Mice

Boston University scientists have created a new Covid strain in a laboratory by combining Omicron and the original Wuhan strain. This new strain killed 80% of the mice used in their study, according to the scientists themselves.

Apparently, there's no shame in doing this kind of research. We can therefore assume that similar work is done all over the globe, and we can further conclude that some accident will eventually happen where such a deadly strain escapes the laboratory. However, we now have enough experience with this kind of shenanigans to know that there's little to worry about.

The Wuhan flu started out dangerous but became harmless within a few months. This was clear as early as April 2020. The mortality rate dropped off a cliff from day one.

This is because viruses don't benefit from being deadly. It's better for the virus to let the host live because viruses die when their host die. The longer the host lives, the more chances there are to spread, and so we end up with the most benign versions spreading more than the more lethal ones. Natural selection kills off the deadly strains in favour of the harmless ones.

The trick to surviving the next lab leak is no different from the trick we already employed in order to survive the Wuhan strain: Avoid being among the first to catch the virus and keep a healthy lifestyle.

A roast lamb dinner

By Acabashi - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

The Insanity of Disbelief

When people believe in things that don't exist, we use words like delusional or gullible to describe them. In some cases, we'd say they are paranoid. A strong belief in something that doesn't exist is a sign of mental illness.

To avoid this, some resolve to believe only that which can be proven to exist. However, that turns out to be just as maddening as a belief in things that don't exists, because nothing beyond our senses can ever be proven.

If we resolve to believe only that which we can prove through our senses, we quickly end up with the problem of ascertaining if our sensory inputs are real or mere simulations. We have no way of knowing if we're living inside an advanced simulation, or inside a real world with real things.

We must, at this basic level, make a choice. We must either believe that the world around us is real, or we must believe that it's a simulation. However, only one choice leads to sanity, and that is to believe that the world around us is real.

People who partially or fully believe that only they are real, and everything else is mere scenery have no way to judge what other people think or feel. There can be no empathy in a world where only I exist. There can be no love, and no real joy. Everything becomes merely a matter of sensory inputs. We love only that which gives us physical satisfaction.

Such people are sociopaths. They don't connect to the world in a healthy way. It's all about them and everything else is secondary to their wants and desires. Such people are avoided and despised, because they have a mental illness that's not only detrimental to themselves, but to everybody else as well.

The only sane way to approach the external world is to accept three things:

1. The world around us is real.
2. We're no more special than everyone else.
3. We're equipped with a free will.

Only when all three points are accepted can we conclude that the world is real and not a simulation. However, none of the above points can be proven. We have to accept them on face value. We have to have faith in the above in order to live healthy lives with love and empathy, and a sense of purpose.

This is why the above three points are central to Christian doctrine. We're told to believe in God and His creation. That's point 3 and 1 respectively. We're also told to love others like we love ourselves. That's point 2.

We're told to believe in all of this because it's the only way to live life fully.

Jesus

By Carl Bloch - https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVdd6dZPU3nrHUoYjTuN9VNudnSwm6_ckL4my_jNr9y0jQXOkTeF5lzEN7RsSyiIlatLoriO91OkOEHrVvJ3bToCcmcjVcgQ76Ios4s0OCGS2ivlOP2i3K8L1rG1Svqv2EdEDnGRpLzOC-/s1600/Sermon_on_the_Mount_Carl_Bloch.jpg and Carl Bloch, p. 313, ISBN 9788798746591, Public Domain, Link

An Irrational Insistence on Atheism

There is among many libertarians an insistence on atheism. This is irrational in that it does nothing to promote libertarian thinking. Why insist on atheism when it's so much easier to point out that Jesus was a libertarian anarchist.

Jesus accepted no law that wasn't based on the golden rule, and he accepted no authority other than God. Jesus was in other words a man who believed in natural law.

There's nothing in Christian doctrine to stop Christians from embracing libertarian anarchy. On the contrary, belief in political authority is distinctly un-Christian in that it gives some men the authority to define what's good and what's evil.

Those who insist on atheism are generally of the opinion that they are the rational ones, and that their insistence is merely an insistence on rationality. They want to convert Christians away from their irrational belief in God. However, there's nothing irrational about a belief in God. The reason for this is that there's no way to explain the phenomenon of free will without invoking some universal will present in nature.

Natural sciences see the world as part mechanical and part random chance. Hence, we're nothing but automata with a sprinkle of randomness. We have the appearance of free will, but no real power to change anything. Everything is quantum-mechanics. No physical outcome can be changed through our will, because no will exists. Will is not a physical concept.

But if this is the case, why spend any time arguing for liberty? If there's no will, we might as well spend our time doing other things.

To get around this, the atheists Arthur Schopenhauer insisted on the existence of a will, everywhere present in nature. Since we are part of nature, we have a will, and we can therefore change the outcome of events.

But how is this different from believing that God has given us free will? The concept of a will is no less metaphysical than the concept of God.

Furthermore, if a day comes when the concept of a will is successfully incorporated into the natural sciences, we're no closer to a resolution on the issue. Such a discovery can be used just as much as an argument for God's existence as for the opposite.

If God is a will everywhere present in the universe, the discovery of this will is no proof against God.

To insist that there's no God and at the same time insist that we have a free will makes no sense, because God can be defined as a will present in the universe. To insist that there's no free will makes even less sense, because a world without free will is a quantum-mechanical machine where no outcome can be changed by our will. Why insist on anything if the outcome is merely a mix of mechanics and random chance?

Without free will, there can be no moral judgements, no room for wilful change, no purposeful action. Life becomes meaningless, and liberty impossible.

Libertarian doctrine is based on the idea that we're equipped with a free will. Free will is in turn linked to the idea of a will present in nature, aka God. It's therefore irrational for a libertarian to insist on atheism, because atheism rejects the existence of the metaphysical entity that forms the basis of libertarian doctrine in the first place.

Creation of Adam

By Michelangelo - See below., Public Domain, Link

Colds and Lung Infections

My brother-in-law has caught another cold. It's never-ending it seems. Ever since he got himself vaccinated it's been one thing after another. Pains and aches, covid, colds. All sorts of ailments. However, it could've been worse. He could've had a heart attack like his older brother, or recurring lung-infections, like my cousin's six-year-old daughter.

My cousin and his wife decided to get their daughter vaccinated in order to go on vacations during the virus scare. Instead of waiting a year to see what the side-effects of the vaccine might be, they decided to risk it on themselves and their little girl. The girl has had double-sided lung-infections twice so far and is currently on oxygen treatment in a hospital.

The flu season has not even started, and we're already seeing people getting seriously ill with colds and lung-infections. Needless to say, my wife and I are glad we didn't cave into the relentless peer pressure that we were under back in the summer of 2021.

Oxygen treatment

By James Heilman, MD - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

73,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

As of October 15, we've reached 73,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. That's 3,000 more cases than predicted on September 27. Instead of a drop down to 250 new cases per day, we got an average of 420 new cases. However, the downward trajectory remains in place. We're currently seeing less than half as many new cases than we did in August.

The worldwide number of cases currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 4,000 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days.

Assuming that this trend persists, we can make the following prediction going forward:

• July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
• August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
• August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
• August 17 - 39,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• August 25 - 46,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• September 2 - 53,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
• September 10 - 57,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 5,000 inpatients
• September 18 - 61,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 5,000 inpatients
• September 26 - 65,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 5,000 inpatients
• October 4 - 69,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 3,750 inpatients
• October 15 - 73,000 cases, 400 new cases per day, 4,000 inpatients
• October 20 - 75,000 cases, 400 new cases per day, 4,000 inpatients
• October 30 - 78,500 cases, 350 new cases per day, 3,500 inpatients
• November 9 - 82,000 cases, 350 new cases per day, 3,500 inpatients
• November 19 - 85,000 cases, 300 new cases per day, 3,000 inpatients

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

The Death of a Body Builder

Doug Brignole died on October 13, presumably of a heart attack, at the age of 62. This has caught the attention of the anti-vaccination crowd, because Doug made posts on social media some two years ago offering himself up as an experiment to be followed.

Two things stand out in his posts:

1. It's clear that he was of the impression that the vaccine would stop transmission. The vaccine would put an end to the spread of the virus, but only if a large majority of the population went along with the experiment. He wasn't aware of the fact that the vaccine never got tested for this. Doug was misled. Had he done his research properly, he would've known about this. It wasn't a secret. It was merely suppressed and lied about.
2. Doug was so convinced that the vaccine was both safe and effective that he offered himself up as a test subject to be studied and followed. If he died, we should take this as a sign that the vaccine is deadly dangerous. If he survived, we should conclude that he was right in his assessments.

As it turned out, Doug was wrong on both counts. The vaccine does nothing to prevent transmission. We also have excess deaths that no-one is willing to explain to the public.

Doug's death may have had nothing to do with his vaccine status. However, this doesn't take away from the fact that we have unexplained excess deaths.

Doug's posts have highlighted two important aspects of the virus scare and how it was handled: We were lied to, and some people died as a consequence.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

The Significance of Dimorphos' Tail

The short answer to why Dimorphos now has a 10,000 km long tail, some two weeks after NASA intentionally slammed a space probe into it, is that the solar wind dragged the debris with it into space.

If this is all there is to the story, we should expect the tail soon to disconnect from the asteroid and become an elongated cloud, separate from it. However, if this doesn't happen, we're looking at something more complex, namely a comet of sorts.

Comets have tails that persist over time, not because they're dirty snowballs, but because the environment comets travel through is constantly changing in charge density. Going towards the Sun, comets have to adjust for higher charge density. Going away from the sun, they have to adjust to lower charge density. This adjustment is achieved through the shedding of material through electrochemical processes and possibly nuclear fission. Hence, the tail of comets.

Planets don't have tails like comets do because planets have near circular orbits. There's no need for readjustments when it comes to charge density. The difference between a comet and a planet is therefore due entirely to the shape of their orbits. When orbits are circular, there're no tails. When orbits are oblong, there're tails.

If Dimorphos' tail proves persistent, we can use the above to explain the reason for this: Before the impact, Dimorphos had no tail because it was orbiting in a circle around Didymos. After the impact, Dimorphos acquired a persistent tail due to its new and oblong orbit.

Didymos is no sun, but it has around it a charge density of its own, and Dimorphos is a heap of rubble from which dust can easily be dislodged. As such, the two asteroids represent a miniature system comparable to the solar system.

My thesis when it comes to orbits is that they are more stable than generally believed. I've based this on the fact that orbits are governed by gravitational attraction and electrical repulsion, with gravity acting from the centre of bodies and electric repulsion acting from the surface of bodies. When these forces combine, we get a shock absorber effect that steadies orbits of bodies hit by an external force.

In the case of Dimorphos, we can add an extra source of stability, namely the solar wind which acts like an external power supply. This power supply may have importance to where the ideal orbit of Dimorphos should be relative to Didymos. If so, we have a chance of seeing the disturbed orbit not only steady into a circle quicker than most would expect but restore itself completely back to its original.

What we're about to witness might turn out to be a miniature version of what some believe to have happened some 10,000 years ago, when legend has it that Venus settled into its current orbit after a turbulent journey from Jupiter to where it's currently located.

Venus is everywhere in the world depicted as either a goddess with long flowing hair or a god with a long beard, indicating that it had a tail relatively recently. However, this tail disappeared once Venus settled into her current orbit. Venus went from being a comet to a planet in less than 10,000 years.

If Dimorphos steadies into a circular orbit quicker than expected, we'll have supporting evidence for the Venus as a comet theory. If Dimorphos retains its tail until its orbit is near circular, we have additional evidence for this theory, and if the orbit gets completely restored, the evidence becomes even stronger.

NASA's experiment may turn out to be more revealing than anyone had thought.

Dimorphos 285 hours after impact

By NASA

My Tao - Beware the False Zen

Contentment is key to success in life. Not only is this state of mind the only real measure of wealth. It's also a prerequisite for rational action. Without a balanced mind, it's difficult to make good decisions.

This is an age-old insight, especially in the East where Zen has been elevated to religion. However, there's a widespread misconception related to this that we need to be aware of.

Many believe that Zen is an end in itself rather than part of a never-ending cycle. They think that key to success is to blank out everything unpleasant. The idea is to sit in perfect harmony with no needs or desires. But this ignores a basic fact about human existence, namely the need to provide for ourselves and to look out for dangers and opportunities.

Contentment isn't something we can force upon ourselves. Rather, it's something we let in and open up to as much as possible. Contentment is something that typically arises after we've done something worthwhile. People who are good at it feel content whenever they've done something beneficial, however mundane.

Sitting down after having done the dishes is an opportunity to feel content. A good meal can make us feel content. Even going to the toilet can bring on this feeling. There's no lack of opportunities to feel content. However, it cannot and should not be forced. When the feeling of contentment subsides, there's time for action.

If we're particularly good at what we're doing, we bring contentment into the activities of the day. That requires the activities to be done at a pace that's natural and with a skill set that we master. Tending a garden is a perfect example of this. We don't have to sit passively in a corner of our garden to feel content. We can walk about in it and take care of the plants, and still have our Zen moment. In fact, activity is at times more likely to bring on a feeling of contentment than inactivity.

There's no Zen in the act of sitting in a corner of a garden contemplating how our favourite flower wilts for lack of water. Giving it water, on the other hand, will bring back that feeling of contentment. The same goes with any other needed activity left undone. There's no Zen in trying to ignore the list of things that need to be done. However, a good Zen moment will help us prioritize such a list.

Once we've done some needed activity, we should take a moment to reflect over the other things that need to be done. Content with the fact that one thing is already off our list, we sit down and relax. We celebrate that which has been achieved while at the same time contemplating other things that need doing. An urge for action arises soon enough, and we go ahead with the next task, after which we take another break.

All of this comes natural to us if we do things according to the pace that we feel comfortable with. This is why we should be wary of those who brag about their high pace work environment. We should also be wary of those who claim they can achieve Zen no matter how stressful things get. They may be right in what they're saying, but this type of talk is not something we should feel attracted to.

There's no virtue in being constantly busy, and there's no virtue in being able to block out basic needs. Such activities are vices, contrary to nature.

True Zen can only be achieved when rest and activity is in tune with the natural pace of our lives and the world in general.

Yin Yang

By Gregory Maxwell - From File:Yin yang.png, converted to SVG by Gregory Maxwell., Public Domain, Link

Dimorphos now has a 10,000 km Long Tail

Here's an article by National Geographic that sheds more light on the DART probe and its impact on Dimorphos' orbit around Didymos.

The article contains an image taken by a European space craft right after impact. It shows debris tossed up in the sort of cloud-like pattern we would expect. However, later pictures taken by NASA show a star-like pattern. Later still, the pattern is that of a comet with a long tail estimated to be about 10,000 km long, or about 6,000 miles.

An article by NOIR Lab contains a detailed picture of the comet-like pattern. The tail is explained as caused by the Sun's radiation pressure. That would be the solar wind, aka plasma current radiating away from the Sun. The tail is in other words pointing away from the Sun. However, the image in the picture shows a second tail, and there's no explanation for it.

The amount of debris ejected by the impact of the DART probe is taken as proof that Dimorphos is a so-called rubble-pile asteroid. It has no solid core. It's therefore a relatively low-density object that shed a lot of its mass as ejecta on impact. This explains the greater than expected change in Dimorphos' orbit.

The new orbit is being monitored closely. The shape and stability of it is going to be studied, including the possibility that it may wobble. This means that there are other people than me expecting the orbit to partially restore, and it will be interesting to learn to what extent this happens, if it happens at all.

Dimorphos 285 hours after impact

By NASA

My Tao - Contentment

All activities have their own natural pace. If things go slower than this pace, there's waste. When things go faster than this pace, there's also waste. We see this everywhere in nature. Every animal has its own natural range of speeds. Every plant grows at a natural pace.

This extends into human society. We talk and walk and live our lives within ranges that are natural. Otherwise, we burn ourselves out, or we become indolent and depressed.

To feel content and relaxed, we need to do things at a pace that correspond to what is natural to ourselves. But this poses a problem because the pace that's natural to us is rarely the pace that's natural to other things.

A tree grows at a pace so slow that it doesn't appear to change at all. A sizeable forest is required in order to provide us with enough things to do to occupy our daily lives. The same goes for industry and projects of various kinds. They need to have a certain scale in order to satisfy our natural desire for activity. However, we don't want these projects to be too big either. The trick is to scale things correctly.

A well-balanced lifestyle includes several projects, some of which are optional so that they can be skipped when there's an urgent need to do something out of the ordinary. An appropriate amount of time should be allocated to each project.

In my case, most of my projects are optional. The only important one is my investment portfolio which requires very little attention. The natural pace of my portfolio is to do nothing for years, or even decades on end, so there's no urgent need to check on it every day. Yet, I do. I check the daily market movements, a little like a forester checks his forest.

If I spend too much time reading up on the markets, I end up with an uneasy feeling. An urge to do something sets in. There's discomfort. Hence, it's important to keep the time spent on this project to a minimum.

This makes it important to have other projects: I spend time on my balcony. I have micro-composts that I find strangely fascinating. It's intriguing to see so much life appear seemingly out of nowhere.

I have other interests too, and I write about them on this blog. It's a great way to sort out thoughts. Then there's daily routines in the house. I sometimes go for walks about town, and I'm getting quite good at simply soaking up the general atmosphere of calm and order that comes from having things sorted out.

The ability to simply enjoy the moment is a great way to balance things. It yields a state of contentment in which the urge to do things disappear, which is good when there's no urgent need to do anything. Contentment prevents us from doing things that turn out to be costly and counterproductive. It puts things in perspective.

Ideas come to mind at a natural pace. Things get prioritized, and we can return to our projects with a sense of purpose. Contentment isn't only a pleasant state in itself. It's a powerful way to make sure that the right things get done at the right time and at the right pace.

Contentment prevents us from doing something rash. It highlights what needs to be done. It's key to both happiness and success and should be pursued by everyone. A garden or a balcony with plants can help in this respect. A walk in the park. A spot with a calming view. A good cup of coffee. Whatever is available should be used to achieve this because a constant feeling of unrest is not only draining. It's a source of much rashness and waste.

Contentment is not only good for us in the now. It generates wealth into the future, with further reasons and opportunities to feel content. Once the habit is established, a positive feedback loop kicks in.

Contemplating life over a cup of coffee

DART Probe has Changed Dimorphos' Orbit

The NASA DART probe that hit the asteroid Dimorphos on September 27 has shortened Dimorphos’ orbit around its larger parent asteroid Didymos by 32 minutes. Its 11 hour and 55-minute orbit has been reduced to 11 hours and 23 minutes. That's a reduction of about 3%, three times more than NASA predicted.

My guess was that NASA would find it harder to change the orbit than they predicted, but that didn't happen.

I've also made a more speculative suggestion, that the orbit may partially or fully restore to its original due to the dual workings of gravitational attraction and electric repulsion, which should work as a shock absorber. However, it's too early to say if this will happen. It's also something that no-one else is expecting, and therefore something that may not be widely reported on.

Gravitational attraction and electrostatic repulsion

Telescope images taken in the hours immediately after the impact showed a relatively stable, star-like pattern of ejected dust and debris, not the nebulous cloud we might have expected. This pattern has since become more pronounced.

The image shown in NASA's latest article is of an elongated jet extending from the asteroid. NASA's article gives no explanation for the shape of the jet but gives it credit for having made the impact more effective than expected. My thinking is that the jet is shaped by the solar wind, aka plasma current emanating from the sun.

Dimorphos 285 hours after impact

By NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/3.2_dart_compass_draft2.png

How Banks Profit from Fractional Reserve Banking

Central banks aren't the only entities that are allowed to create currency out of thin air. Regular banks can do this too. However, they're required to have some capital themselves. In order to print currency, they have to have some fraction of this as deposits from their clients.

The procedure is similar to that of central banks. Currency created has to go into circulation. Currency returned has to be removed. Only the profit can be retained.

The way this is done is through bank loans. If the fractional reserve required by law is at 10%, a bank has to have $10 deposited in order to extend a loan of $100.

The loan of $100 is created out of thin air. The number is typed into the customer's bank account. The $10 in deposits is not directly part of the loan. It serves merely as security.

If the loan is at 3% for a year, the customer has to return $103 after a year. The bank deletes the $100 it created. Only the profit of $3 is kept.

This translates into a profit of $3 on the $10 the bank had as deposits. That's a 30% profit.

Fractional reserve banking has enabled the bank to tenfold its profit from 3% to 30%.

The flipside of this is that banks risk tenfold losses. If a loan of $100, based off of $10 in deposits, is returned only in part, the bank suffers a hit to its reserves, i.e., its deposits. If only $90 of the $100 loan is returned, the bank must still write off $100.

Unlike central banks, regular banks cannot ignore losses. Regular bank losses have to be covered by reserves. This means that fractional reserve banking isn't without risk. However, central banks will step in and help out banks that get into trouble by buying bank assets at inflated prices. A bank in trouble may own some government debt that a central bank can by to recapitalize it.

Returning to our example, we can imagine a bank loan of $100 based off of deposits worth $10. This loan defaults and only $90 is returned. The bank is now without its $10 reserve, held in the form of deposits.

Without reserves, the bank has become insolvent. It can no longer extend credit. However, it may still hold some asset that can be bought at an inflated price. Alternatively, a loan can be extended by the central bank. Cash injection of some kind can be arranged. There are many ways to make the bank solvent again.

The rescue procedure takes the loss off of the bank in trouble. The loss is transferred to the central bank which is allowed to run at a loss without consequence. But, as pointed out in my post about central banking, losses shouldered by central banks correspond to currency without any anchor to anything of value. This diminishes the value of the currency as a whole.

Fractional reserve banking, supported by central banks, is a system that allows banks to make outsize profits on their banking operations with little risk to themselves. When times are good, bankers make money. When things turn sour, the currency takes a hit without any great loss to banks or central banks.

The ultimate bag holder is the average person who sees the value of their salaries and savings evaporate mysteriously as the currency loses its value.

Federal reserve note

By National Museum of American History - Image by Godot13, Public Domain, Link

How Central Banks Make a Profit

Central banks create currency out of thin air. However, this is not how they make a profit because the currency has to be sent into circulation, and it has to be destroyed when returned to the central bank.

The way central banks make a profit is that they buy something for the money they create. When this something is sold at some later time, they pocket the profit. Only the currency originally created by the central bank is destroyed. The profit is retained and passed on to the entity that owns the central bank.

As an example, we can imagine a central bank buying $100 worth of government debt, with 3% interest, and expiring in a year. This will result in $3 profit at the end of the year. The $100 used to buy the debt was created out of thin air and is returned to nothing when the government pays down the debt.

In a balanced budget, the $3 in profits is collected as taxes from the people. If the government owns the central bank, the $3 is returned to the government. If it is owned by private individuals, these individuals get to share the $3 collected in taxes.

If a central bank manages to buy $100 worth of debt for $90 dollars, the central bank makes an additional $10 dollars in profit when the debt is paid back in full. However, if the central bank spends $110 on $100 worth of debt, it makes a $10 loss. If the debt is defaulted on, the loss can be even greater.

This means that central banks can run at a loss despite their ability to print money out of thin air. While this is harmless to central banks, precisely because they can print as much currency as they please, the effect is detrimental to ordinary people because it results in a growing amount of currency that will never be returned to central banks.

The currency that isn't returned to central banks becomes worthless in the sense that it isn't any longer anchored to anything of value in central banks. It will never be returned. It's washing around in the economy with no chance of ever being drained out.

Since there's no way of distinguishing which bits of currency is anchored to anything of value, and which bits are still tied to central bank assets, the value of the currency as a whole goes down.

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

What Happened to the New Normal

Before buying my air-tickets for my September trip to Norway, I asked my brothers if there were any restrictions on unvaccinated travellers. I specifically asked about the new normal. Was there anything left of it?

This was an honest question on my part, but I think my brothers thought it a trick question because none of them cared to answer.

I figured their silence meant that the most draconian restrictions were rolled back, so I went to Norway only partially expecting to be harassed on arrival. But it turned out that there were no restrictions at all.

That's quite a contrast to only a year ago, when the new normal was being implemented at a staggering pace. People going to Norway had to spend ten days in quarantine before getting into the country. People everywhere were forced to wear masks and go into concentration camps if not fully wetted.

Supermarkets in Germany were putting up scanners for vaccine passports so as to keep the unvaccinated out. Supermarkets in Portugal (Continente) were preparing for the same. Hobby fascists were out in force, yelling at those who dared to pull their masks down below their noses.

There was a lot of momentum in the new normal. Then, out of nowhere, there was a sudden about face. A year later, the new normal has been completely rolled back. With the exception of a few countries still insisting on vaccine passports for free entry and travel, there's nothing left of it.

The new normal came and went like a bad dream. When we see evidence of it in year old photographs and videos, it's borderline surreal. The phenomenon has aged terribly in just twelve short months.

Few people worry about the virus these days. The focus is shifting towards the long-term consequences of the new normal. Kids are getting ill at alarming rates. There are excess deaths. Every time some young person keels over dead for no good reason, many people's first though is the vaccine.

This illustrates a central point in Christian doctrine. Namely that those who have faith in God (aka nature) have much less to fear than it may seem in the heat of the moment. However, those who give in to fear, and act against nature may soon find themselves riddled with fear of nature itself.

We're now at a point where those who resisted the new normal can continue their lives without fear, while those who gave into the new normal are increasingly sensing the presence of God, and not in a good way.

My brothers' silence on the topic of the new normal is telling. They don't want to be reminded of their failure to see what is obvious in retrospect. Nor do they want to think about the long-term consequences of what they let themselves into.

Thinking about the new normal

926 Cases of Monkeypox in Portugal

A total of 926 cases of Monkeypox have been registered in Portugal as of October 2. This is the first update of these numbers since August 31 when there had been 871 cases since the beginning of the outbreak.

This means that there have been 55 new cases over a 32-day period, which translates to about 2 new cases per day. This is the smallest number registered since the spread of the disease stalled in July:

• July 1 - 415 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• July 7 - 473 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• July 13 - 515 cases - about 7 new cases per day
• July 20 - 588 cases - about 10 new case per day
• July 27 - 633 cases - about 7 new cases per day
• August 3 -710 cases - about 10 new cases per day
• August 10 - 770 cases - about 9 new cases per day
• August 17 - 810 cases - about 6 new cases per day
• August 24 - 846 cases - about 5 new cases per day
• August 31 - 871 cases - about 4 new cases per day
• October 2 - 926 cases - about 2 new cases per day

Assuming a hospital stay of no more than ten days for the infected, there should be no more than 20 cases of Monkeypox currently in Portuguese hospitals. The downward trend indicates that the outbreak may be over by Christmas. 

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

Putting Big Numbers in Context

The US government debt has passed $31 trillion. That's a big number.

To put it in context, less than 64 billion seconds have passed since Jesus was born:

60 * 60 * 24 * 365 * 2022 = 63,765,792,000

This means that the US government has gone into dept at a rate equivalent to $485 for every second since the birth of Jesus.

However, almost all of the debt has been accumulated over the past 40 years, over which period debt has grown on average by $24,500 every second.

But 1/3 of this debt was accumulated over the past 5 years, putting the current rate of debt accumulation above $65,000 per second.

Federal reserve note

By National Museum of American History - Image by Godot13, Public Domain, Link

Record Numbers of Children are being Hospitalized with Colds

So, it turns out that the sceptics were right once again. The lockdowns, mask mandates and social distancing has resulted in record numbers of children being hospitalized with colds. Keeping in mind that the life of a child is at least 40 times more valuable than the life of an old person, due to years left to live and the quality of those years, we have to ask if it was worth it.

People were obsessed with the idea that they had to save grandma, and no sacrifice was too great for this noble cause. Hardly anyone stopped to think about the children, and how they would suffer.

Now is a little late to lament our collective obsession with grandma. Children are hospitalized. Some are dying, needlessly so because the virus was never very dangerous for children in the first place. Children weren't masked, injected with vaccines and held back from social activities in order to make them safe from the virus. They were treated this way solely to save a handful of old folks.

Morals were inverted in a decidedly Luciferian manner. Old folks were valued higher than young people. Medicins were taken for the benefit of others. Medical measures were taken for a common good, rather than out of a personal need. It was as if Lucifer himself was laying out the rules, and it was mindboggling to see how many went along with it.

The consequences of this collective moral failing will no doubt be with us for years to come.

Oxygen treatment

By James Heilman, MD - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Cantillon's Inflation

Richard Cantillon noted in his book on economy, written more than 300 years ago, that monetary inflation doesn't result in evenly distributed price distortions. Rather than lifting all boats equally, monetary inflation moves through the economy like a wave, lifting some boats more than others, and at different times.

This is because the preferences of those getting the added money supply depend on their circumstances. The first ones are usually well-connected businessmen who will buy financial assets. The next ones will buy other things. The last ones will typically spend it on consumption. Hence financial assets go up in price before consumer prices start rising.

Another aspect of this is that monetary inflation distorts prices close to the source before it affects more peripheral areas. Hence, we have 17% price inflation in the Netherlands at the moment, while it's only 10% in Portugal. Physical proximity to the ECB explains the difference in price inflation.

Following up on this thought, we can expect the damage caused by monetary inflation to be greater close to the source than farther away. This too can be imagined as a wave which is largest close to the disturbance that caused it. If so, investing in Portugal may be the right thing to do once the wave has moved through the economy.

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Persistent Rumour

According to a persistent rumour circulating in comment sections of articles found on Zerohedge, the Russian pipelines to Germany have only been partially destroyed. One of them may even be operational in a matter of weeks from now.

The rumour has it that the Russians built in sufficient redundancy to cope with the sort of sabotage that we've witnessed. It claims that the pipelines are cross connected at multiple points so as to allow gas to flow past damaged sections. The rogue actors who attacked the pipeline also made a mistake in blowing two holes in the same pipeline section instead of two different sections.

If true, this would mean that the rogue actors will have to finish the job they started or risk seeing Russia's capacity restored. To finish the job would mean the deployment of yet another 500 kg bomb and another explosion. That would draw additional attention to the evil intent of these people. But to leave the Russians unhindered in their capacity as reliable energy providers for Germany would be just as disastrous in their eyes.

On the other hand, the rumour may have been planted by Russian agents to lure the rogue actors back to the scene. There's no telling if the Russians built in the robust redundancies that the rumour talks about. If they did, it tells of great foresight on their side. They didn't go for the cheapest and easiest solution, but for a solution robust enough to withstand acts of war.

Another interesting aspect of this rumour is that it has received no consideration in mainstream media. Journalists are not touching the story. They seem afraid to highlight the evil that has been perpetrated against the Germans. Any discussion related to the attack is avoided. The journalists act as if it's a foregone conclusion that the attack was wildly successful and that the Germans can forget about Russian gas ever coming to their rescue.

Once again, we get the feeling that journalists are working from a script. We have important issues that are ignored. Nobody pays any attention to the excess deaths that have come in the wake of the vaccine roll out. Nobody talks about possible ways to save the Germans from freezing through the winter. Instead, we get a constant barrage of stories to sell vaccines and boosters, and an energy debate that focuses exclusively on alternatives for the Germans.

Baphomet

By Eliphas Levi - Eliphas Levi, Public Domain, Link

Notable Deaths in September

With September behind us, we now have another month of notable deaths to analyse.

September 2022 saw 664 deaths, which is less than September 2021 with 732 deaths, but equal to September 2020 with 663 deaths. The number is well above September 2019 with 562 deaths and September 2018 with 521 deaths, indicating that we are seeing excess deaths in line with the pandemic rather than any return to normal:

• 521 in September 2018
• 562 in September 2019
• 663 in September 2020
• 732 in September 2021
• 664 in September 2022

Deaths among those younger than 70 years of age compares to previous years as follows:

• 22.84% in September 2018
• 24.91% in September 2019
• 20.06% in September 2020
• 22.96% in September 2021
• 23.34% in September 2022

September 2022 is second to September 2019, which was particularly severe for young people. September 2020 was the least severe, probably due to lockdowns which prevented young people from getting into accidents.

Using a severity formula that divides deaths among those older than 69 by 10 and multiplies deaths among those younger than 70 by 4 we get the following:

• 516 in September 2018
• 602 in September 2019
• 585 in September 2020
• 728 in September 2021
• 671 in September 2022

In terms of severity, September 2021 is worst, with September 2022 a close second. This is because September 2020 saw above average deaths among old people, while September 2021 and 2022 have seen above average deaths among young people.

Interestingly, it's September 2019 that comes in third with a severity reading higher than September 2020. The lockdowns of 2020 appear to have caused a reduction of deaths among young people, only to cause a rebound in 2021 and 2022.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

Here are the numbers:

---

September 2022:

• 20s = 4 = 0.60%
• 30s = 17 = 2.56%
• 40s = 20 = 3.01%
• 50s = 37 = 5.57%
• 60s = 77 = 11.60%
• 70s = 137= 20.63%
• 80s = 202 = 30.42%
• 90s = 152 = 22.89%
• 100+ = 18 = 2.71%

Total = 664; Younger than 70 = 23.34%

September 2021:

• 20s = 6 = 0.82%
• 30s = 13 = 1.78%
• 40s = 20 = 2.73%
• 50s = 45 = 6.15%
• 60s = 84 = 11.48%
• 70s = 164 = 22.40%
• 80s = 227 = 31.01%
• 90s = 160 = 21.86%
• 100+ = 13 = 1.78%

Total = 732; Younger than 70 = 22.96%

September 2020:

• 20s = 3 = 0.45%
• 30s = 12 = 1.81%
• 40s = 16 = 2.41%
• 50s = 33 = 4.98%
• 60s = 69 = 10.41%
• 70s = 165 = 24.89%
• 80s = 217 = 32.73%
• 90s = 127 = 19.16%
• 100+ = 21 = 3.17%

Total = 663; Younger than 70 = 20.06%

September 2019:

• 20s = 3 = 0.53%
• 30s = 15 = 2.67%
• 40s = 22 = 3.91%
• 50s = 26 = 4.63%
• 60s = 74 = 13.17%
• 70s = 122 = 21.71%
• 80s = 170 = 30.25%
• 90s = 116 = 20.64%
• 100+ = 14 = 2.49%

Total = 562; Younger than 70 = 24.91%

September 2018:

• 20s = 8 = 1.54%
• 30s = 3 = 0.58%
• 40s = 10 = 1.92%
• 50s = 31 = 5.95%
• 60s = 67 = 12.86%
• 70s = 106 = 20.35%
• 80s = 161 = 30.90%
• 90s = 129 = 24.76%
• 100+ = 6 = 1.15%

Total = 521; Younger than 70 = 22.84%

Wikipedia

CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

DART Probe's Impact Crater on Dimorphos

NASA's article on the successful crashing of a space probe into the asteroid Dimorphos mentions a follow up mission that will inspect the impact crater in four years from now. My prediction for this is that the crater will be smaller than expected.

The reason for this is that asteroids aren't what astronomers believe them to be. They aren't proto planets, but remnants of planets that have been blown to bits or carved up by rogue planets. Hence, the rocky and dusty surface observed doesn't extend to the core of the asteroid, as generally believed.

Dimorphos isn't a low mass body, easily disturbed both in its orbit and its shape. It's a solid, high mass body with a thin cover of dust and rocks, and its cover was accumulated in the aftermath of the event that created it in the first place.

There will be little left to see of the impact crater in four years from now. It may even be completely gone due to the constant workings of solar winds.

Dimorphos seconds before DART probe impact

By Doug Ellison & NASA (Original) - https://twitter.com/doug_ellison/status/1574646223591481345, Public Domain, Link

NASA’s DART Probe Hits Asteroid

The NASA DART probe that I wrote about a year ago has reached its destination. It has crashed into an asteroid in order to alter its orbit around another, larger asteroid.

The impact happened on September 27. Pictures taken by the probe immediately before impact show a surface littered with rocks and dust. Telescope images show a relatively stable, star-like pattern of ejected dust and debris. Not the nebulous cloud we might have expected.

Accurate data related to the collision and its impact on the orbit of the system will be collected in the weeks to come.

NASA predicts about 1% shorter orbit, or roughly 10 minutes. I was under the impression that the aim was to widen the orbit, but I was evidently wrong in this. However, this doesn't take anything away from my overall prediction, which is based on my belief that asteroids are more massive than NASA thinks they are.

I expect the impact to be less effective than NASA predicts. The orbit may also partially or fully restore to its pre-impact trajectory due to the dual effect of gravitational attraction and electrostatic repulsion.

Gravitational attraction and electrostatic repulsion

Pension Funds in Trouble

Pension funds are in more trouble than most people realize. This became clear when English pension funds suddenly found themselves squeezed during the latest market turmoil coming out of the UK.

It took a hundred billion pounds of central bank intervention to pull the pension funds out of the mess. But why was that? How was it that something as big as pension funds could go from seemingly stable to the verge of collapse in a matter of days?

The short answer is financialization. Pension funds have lost sight of their true purpose. Instead of providing a steady income for their clients, they are engaging in monetary alchemy where some win at the expense of other. The pension funds found themselves on the wrong side of big bets that went sour when interest rates suddenly went vertical.

One way of looking at this is to compare the true purpose of pension funds to how pension funds are operating in financial markets today.

In simple terms, pension funds have no other purpose than to provide food, clothing and shelter for their clients. To do this, they need to hold productive assets that provide this, and the safest and most direct way to do this is to own these assets directly.

If this had been the case the recent market hiccup would have been of no consequence to the pension funds. Their farms, factories and flats would have continued to provide for their clients regardless of interest rates and other monetary issues.

The same would have been true if the above-mentioned assets were held indirectly through holding companies run soundly, with little exposure to financial markets. The revenue provided by shares in companies that provide food, clothing and shelter would have been unaffected by the turmoil. No pensioners would have been in danger of not getting their share of the productive capacity of the UK.

The focus of pension funds should be on the productive capacity of their assets. The only thing that should matter should be the revenue stream created by their assets. People paying into pension funds would thus buy into this productive capacity, while those who've reached retirement age are provided for by the sum of money coming into the pension funds through dividend and not-yet retired clients. Ownership of the pensions fund and their productive assets should in this way be rotated from those at the end of their lives to those yet to be retired.

At the root of this type of saving schemes, we find productive capacity and a straightforward way of rotating ownership from one generation to the other. However, this simple idea has been lost. Instead of focusing on productive capacity, pension funds today focus on asset prices.

The idea is no longer to secure sufficient productive capacity to provide for clients, but to amass sufficient financial assets to pay for the productive capacity of others. The problem here, is that price and value is not the same thing. Prices of things can go up without anything of value having been created. Hence, pension funds may find themselves owning things that appear to have value but are in fact bubbles.

The sound way of looking at pensions is to pretty much ignore the price action of assets. If a factory doubles in price or halves in price, no value is gained or lost unless the productive capacity of the factory has changed. Pension fund managers may choose to sell factories that they think are priced too high and buy factories that they think are priced too low. But this should always be done based on productive capacity. However, that's not how things are done.

Pension funds own debt instruments and shares in companies, many of which are non-performing or running at a loss. Very little of what they own contributes directly to the economy in terms of products and services essential for their clients' wellbeing. The assumption is that the price of their assets will cover the cost of acquiring the products and services provided by others. However, this assumes that someone is willing to buy the assets held by pension funds at current prices, and it was this assumption that was suddenly challenged in the UK and forced the central bank to come in as a buyer of last resort.

But nothing has been fixed. Pension funds are not in possession of the productive capacity required to feed their clients, and this problem isn't fixed simply by elevating asset prices through central intervention. The money pumped into pension funds in order to prop up their asset prices is nothing but monetary inflation, and the cost of living is likely to go up in response. Instead of pension funds defaulting to their clients, prices of goods and services go up for everyone.

There is no way of fixing this problem, short of handing productive capacity directly over to the pension funds, and that's not going to happen. Pensioners get a haircut, or everyone gets inflation. No other solution exists.

Hot air balloon

By Kropsoq - photo taken by Kropsoq, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

The Final Solution

My wife didn't like my simple plan either. The possibility of getting into an argument with tax authorities about whether or not the money coming to us from Norway is a gift is so unappealing that she thinks it better to do some manoeuvring in Norway to avoid the tax.

That would involve my father, who can send gifts to my son without prompting a tax claim. I don't much like the idea of having to involve my father in this. He's ninety years old, and not one I'd rush to for help. However, this trick will save us about €4,000, and save us any chance of being found to have skirted the rules. I've therefore decided to let my father into this, and he seems positive to it.

The idea would be to have my children send my father the appropriate amount and have him forward it as a gift to my son. This type of transactions is legal and tax free in Norway. It also conforms to Portuguese rules related to tax free gifts.

An open window

Robustness of Infrastructure

One of my main concerns with modern society has long been the fragility of its infrastructure. We are increasingly relying on systems with little to no redundancy. If these systems break, there are no alternatives, and people get in trouble. Having been wary of this for some time, I've positioned myself accordingly. I've made myself relatively independent of modern infrastructure, and I've moved to a country where there's still much redundancy in the way things are done.

Portugal is a country where there are many small shops, small farms and small businesses. The consumer is never far away from a producer. The weather is generally warm. Nobody freezes to death or starves to death in this country.

Now, with rogue actors having blown up Germany's main supply-line of natural gas, the virtue of redundancy has become all the more apparent. Gas pipelines may be super-efficient, but they are open to sabotage from state sponsored terrorists. Without alternative supply lines, countries like Germany are sitting ducks for this kind of activity.

When it comes to natural gas, the most robust supply system is LNG delivered by ship. Such infrastructure allows the receiver to change suppliers, and if someone blows up one port, there's always another port that can be used. This makes Iberia the most robust region in Europe when it comes to natural gas imports, because Spain and Portugal are completely self-reliant in this respect. Iberia gets its natural gas delivered by LNG ships and can therefore pick and choose where they get their gas from.

The consequence of this is that Iberia has suddenly become more appealing in terms of investments and industry. It has by chance become a region of Europe that can operate relatively independent of what rogue actors decide to do. Instead of being seen as backwards in the way they get their energy delivered, Iberia has become a fortress of sorts.

Other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, will want to go the same way. The goal of every country will be a more robust infrastructure. With no country any longer trusting other countries to deliver what they need, every country will want to become its own fortress, and the consequence of this will be a fractured Europe with every country primarily focusing on what's right for its own security and prosperity.

If the goal of the state-sponsored terrorists was to split Europe into its various regions and sub-regions, then their success is pretty much ensured. However, if the goal was to unite Europe into a single geopolitical force, it will prove a fiasco.

Klaus Schwab

By Copyright World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org) swiss-image.ch/Photo by Remy Steinegger - https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/2296517249/, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link