Sunday, July 31, 2022

Less than 24,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's early August 1, and we're not even at 24,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. That's 1,000 less than the 25,000 cases I predicted four days ago. Instead of 1,000 new cases per day, we got less than 750. That's down from 875 new cases per day that we had only a few days ago.

This is cause for optimism. Another cause for optimism is that the number of new cases are dropping in Portugal as well, so we may be looking at a peek, with Monkeypox on its way down to zero. However, the drop may be due to a glitch in reporting, so we should stay with our projection of 1,000 new cases worldwide per day for at least another four days before adjusting our numbers down.

This gives us the following projection going forward:

  • July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
  • July 28 - 21,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
  • August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
  • August 5 - 28,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
  • August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
  • August 13 - 34,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients

This good news is not reflected in media, which has now tilted their reporting towards deaths rather than cases. Emergency measures are called for, and there is much talk about vaccines and the like.

This follows a pattern that I noticed back in April 2020, regarding the virus scare. Things were looking up. Case counts were flat, and only the old and frail were getting seriously ill. Yet media was in a frenzied panic, politicians were passing mandates, and vaccines were rushed to market as if we were in some great global emergency.

Hope
Hope

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Signs of Vaccine Induced ADE

It appears that the UK study that found that 94% of Covid deaths occur in the vaccinated is more grievous than I first thought. When looking into the numbers in more details, we find that the study was focused mainly on old people, of whom 94% are vaccinated with two or more shots.

This means that the death rate of 94% proves that the vaccine is no better than no vaccine at all. However, there's an ominous detail worth noting. Those with less than three shots were more likely to die than those with no vaccine at all. Only those with three shots or more were better protected than the unvaccinated.

This suggests that the vaccine causes ADE, a vaccine related condition in which protection fades over time until it becomes negative. A booster is then required in order to regain protection, but this fades, and another shot is needed. A vicious cycle ensues.

I haven't checked to see if this is in fact what the figures from the UK study suggests, but the need for a booster, and the rate at which protection fades suggest to me that this is what's happening.

Simply pointing this out is enough to induce dread among the vaccinated, so it's another bit of trivia that can be used in our strategy of dread and hope. Everybody knows by now that the vaccine fades. They know that a booster is necessary. Suggesting that the vaccine has induced ADE in people is no longer a crazy idea.

However, we should not use this assertion as a sledge hammer. As soon as we point out this possibility, we should point out that ADE may be restricted to a small portion of the vaccinated, and that it may be a temporary condition that the body is able to heal.

The message should always focus on hope. Taking the vaccine was a mistake, but nature is able to fix things. Those who refrain from taking the boosters will be better off in the long run, and nature may in the end heal us completely.

Hope
Hope

My Wife's Welfare Cheque

My wife received a welfare cheque in the post this morning. This illustrates how beneficial it is to have at least one foot in the parallel economy, and how silly it is to have a system that hands out money based solely on registered incomes and registered wealth.

My wife and I are not poor, yet we get money from the state because the state doesn't know the true state of our finances. They don't know about my wife's extra incomes from running a small operation centred around machine knitting. They don't know about my fixed income from Norway, and they don't know about our unregistered savings.

A statist may argue that we should disclose all our finances so that the state can make the proper calculations, but that would be silly. Besides, I never asked for the hand-outs that we're getting from the Portuguese state and indirectly from the Norwegian state through subsidies of my family's publishing business.

The statist may insist that we refuse the hand-outs, but that too is silly. To refuse it would expose the fact that we can do without. The only rational action is to accept it.

This line of thinking infuriates statists like my younger brother and his wife who meticulously register everything with the state. The reward for this silliness is that they end up paying my bills. They work long hours at the office, and they cannot even afford a week or two on vacation abroad.

The truth that they refuse to accept is that the system is fundamentally unfair because it takes money from some, only to hand it over to others. The only rational way to act within this system is therefore to register as little as possible.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Thursday, July 28, 2022

633 Cases of Monkeypox in Portugal

A total of 633 cases of Monkeypox have been registered in Portugal as of July 27. The numbers are growing linearly, rather than exponentially, as can be seen from the following data:

  • July 1 - 415 cases - about 10 new cases per day
  • July 7 - 473 cases - about 10 new cases per day
  • July 13 - 515 cases - about 7 new cases per day
  • July 20 - 588 cases - about 10 new case per day
  • July 27 - 633 cases - about 7 new cases per day

Assuming a hospital stay of no more than ten days for the infected, there should be no more than 70 active cases of Monkeypox in Portuguese hospitals at the moment. That's down from about 100 only a week ago.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

21,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's July 28, and we're now at 21,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. That's 800 more than the 20,300 cases I predicted four days ago, so it appears that we have not yet reached a steady flow of cases. Instead of 700 new cases per day, we had 875 new cases per day over the last four days.

This deviates from how things developed in Portugal, where a steady flow was reached once we had a doubling of cases every 16 days. The situation worldwide remains a doubling every 16 days, with no sign of deceleration.

However, a steady state may nevertheless be close at hand. Sticking with our thesis that Portugal is a leading indicator, we can optimistically predict a steady state at around 1000 new cases per day. If we assume that each case requires 10 days of hospitalization, we can cautiously predict that hospitalization will top out at about 10,000 inpatients with Monkeypox globally.

Looking at the accumulative numbers, we can predict that we will have about 4000 new cases over the next four days, and that this rate will remain steady going forward:

  • July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
  • July 28 - 21,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
  • August 1 - 25,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
  • August 5 - 29,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
  • August 9 - 33,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Monday, July 25, 2022

Sporadic Gas Flows from Russia to Germany

After ten days of maintenance, gas flows from Russia to Germany were turned back on three days ago. Flows were only at 40% of capacity, but there was nevertheless relief in the market. It could have been worse. Russian officials declared force majeure at one point, and it wasn't until Putin interfered on behalf of the Germans that it was clear that there would be gas.

However, the flows have now been cut by half. They are currently at 20% of capacity. The officials were right, it appears. It's impossible to keep the gas flowing at anything near full capacity. Putin may insist on giving the Germans what they need, but reality is getting in the way.

It's impossible to say how much of this is political theatre. But I suspect that this is mostly staged, as I predicted two weeks ago. We're being fed plausible stories that we have no way of checking. The only surprise is that the Russians are playing a meaner game than I foresaw. They are putting more pressure on the Germans than I had expected. But there's a logic to this that I overlooked. Now, rather than winter, is the best time to play hard ball.

It's summer, and there's not much need for Russian gas. The negative effect of reduced gas flows can be mitigated by drawing on reserves. The public is spared at the present by drawing on savings for the future. When winter comes, and the Germans find themselves unable to meet demand, Russians can rev up supply to 100%, and there will still not be enough.

This game plan would make Putin look relatively good both now and during winter. Putin is playing a game in which he's on the side of the German people. He's fighting hard to keep the gas flowing. It's the German politicians, and faceless bureaucrats both in Germany and Russia that are the problem.

When blame is passed around this coming winter, Putin comes out clean and pristine because he has managed to increase the gas flows from 20% to near full capacity. It's not his fault that German reserves are depleted so much that there has to be rationing.

Putin understands the effect of time on people's perspective. Most people don't think much beyond the present, so it will be very difficult to explain to the German public that shortages during winter has to do with reduced deliveries during summer, especially if deliveries from Russia are at near full capacity when agony hits.

Vladimir Putin (2018-03-01) 03 (cropped).jpg
Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

Sunday, July 24, 2022

17,500 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's July 24, and we're now at about 17,500 cases of Monkeypox worldwide, exactly as I predicted four days ago. This sets the current rate of doubling at 16, which is the rate that proved to be the tipping point for Portugal. Going forward, we're no longer going to see exponential growth.

Portugal sees a steady flow of 10 new cases every day, and since the disease isn't terminal, there must also be 10 cases healed every day. My estimate is that there are less than 100 Portuguese hospitalized for Monkeypox at any given time.

This state of affairs is about to happen worldwide. From looking at the data, the global flow of cases is going to be around 700. This is the number of people that will enter hospitals with Monkeypox every day. It will also be the number of people leaving hospitals every day. If we assume 10 days of hospitalization, there will be 7000 inpatients with Monkeypox globally at any given day going forward.

Looking at the accumulative numbers, we can predict that we will have about 2800 new cases every four days:

  • July 24 - 17,500 cases
  • July 28 - 20,300 cases
  • August 1 - 23,100 cases
  • August 5 - 25,900 cases
  • August 9 - 28,700 cases
  • August 13 - 31,500 cases

This is hardly cause for concern. The vast majority of these cases will already be healed. Only 7000 of them will be active.

Note also that the 32,000 cases on August 1 that I predicted on July 8 is not going to happen before August 13.

Monkeypox is not spreading nearly as quickly as some have feared, yet Tedros has pretty much singlehandedly declared this a global emergency. He has gone against the advise of his own experts. Instead of seeing the disease as rare, relatively harmless, and difficult to spread, the man is convinced that it's so dangerous that WHO needs to get involved.

There appears also to be some confusion over at Wikipedia, which reported 62 deaths due to Monkeypox a few days ago. That number has now been adjusted back down to 5. Some people appear to be determined to make Monkeypox appear much worse than it is. But as long as cooler heads prevail, we'll avoid another round of hysteria related to a relatively harmless virus.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Friday, July 22, 2022

588 Cases of Monkeypox in Portugal

A total of 588 cases of Monkeypox have been registered in Portugal as of July 20. The numbers are growing linearly, rather than exponentially, as can be seen from the following data:

  • July 1 - 415 cases - about 10 new cases per day
  • July 7 - 473 cases - about 10 new cases per day
  • July 13 - 515 cases - about 7 new cases per day
  • July 20 - 588 cases - about 10 new case per day

There are no deaths, so most of the people who've been infected are now already cured. Assuming a hospital stay of no more than ten days for the infected, there should be no more than 100 active cases of Monkeypox in Portuguese hospitals at any given time.

Portugal has a population of 10 million people, so we're dealing with a hospitalization rate that's less than one in a hundred thousand.

We can conclude from this that Monkeypox has either become a rare endemic disease with a hospitalization rate so low that it can be ignored, or that it's waning, and that there will be no active cases in Portugal by the end of the year. Either way, no-one needs to be concerned about this disease.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Heat Waves in Europe

Summer in Porto has so far panned out pretty much exactly as I predicted in June. We've had a few unusually hot days, but for the most part, we've had cooler than normal weather, with clouds and the occasional drizzle. This follows a pattern that's been developing over the sixteen years that I've lived in this town. Summers are becoming increasingly unstable. Blue skies and stable temperatures in the mid to high 20C range are no longer a given.

However, the focus in the media is always on the hot days, and never on the fact that the weather is mostly cooler than normal. There's also a lot of talk about forest fires and droughts, even though this is mostly due to bad resource management. There are also perverse incentives in the system that make forest fires profitable for big land owners, because burned forests fetch insurance money from the state, even if the wood is still usable.

Eucalyptus trees, which have been imported to Portugal by big forest owners have the quality that they shed a lot of bark that burns easily. The trees drain water from the soil, and they are mostly unscathed by fire. Such trees thrive in an environment of frequent fires, and the land owners love them because they provide a double income. Every fire results in money from the state, so there's no incentive to prevent fires.

There's also something strange going on in Norway. A friend of mine posted pictures on Facebook of water reservoirs overflowing with water. Yet, pictures from newspapers show reservoirs drained to dangerously low levels. It appears that there's some serious mismanagement going on due to incompetence or malice.

The much talked about heat wave in England lasted no more than two days, and temperatures in Portugal were in the low 20s during this time. Temperatures in Bergen, Norway were as low as 13C. No-one seemed to have noticed that the hot air in England was a bubble squeezed in between two relatively cold weather systems.

It appears that instability, rather than heat, is the keyword that best describes this summer. That's more in line with the type of weather we've had during cold periods such as the Dark Ages than what we've had during warm periods.

Sun (Earth POV).jpg
Sun

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Flu Season in Australia

I suggested last year in June that we could use Australia as a leading indicator as to how things may pan out six months later in the northern hemisphere. As it turned out, Australian politicians went full totalitarian on their subjects. Tyranny was unleashed on the public. Much to my surprise, most Australians applauded the government for their overreach. Banning unvaccinated players from tennis tournaments was seen by most people as the wise thing to do.

As it turned out, things went much the same way in the northern hemisphere. Canada became a totalitarian hell hole, with vaccine mandates for many professions. Many other countries were just as bad. Germany segregated people according to vaccine status. Austria and France introduced vaccine passports. We were heading for full totalitarian control. But the pressure has been less lately. Mask mandates are still in place in certain places, but the pressure to vaccinate is no longer there, nor the incessant push for vaccine passports.

With flu season now in full swing in Australia, we might again benefit from taking a peek at what's happening down there. As it turns out, the regular flu is back, and worse than it has been in years.

It appears that my prediction is coming true. Government measures have made the population more susceptible to illnesses. Viruses are taking advantage of the weaknesses and frailties introduced into the population.

Predictably, government officials take no blame for this sorry affair. Instead, they recommend that everybody gets their flu shot in addition to the boosters. However, there's apprehension growing within the bureaucracy. It's as if they are sensing an imminent awakening in the population. The rats are looking for the exit strategies. No-one wants to be the tough guy anymore. Draconian measures such as lockdowns and vaccine passports are no longer on the agenda.

If this trend persists, we may see similar apprehension in the north when winter comes around. There may even be a general awakening by then, in which case politicians will have to scrap their tyrannical agenda. They will be too busy distancing themselves from the horrors they wrought to complete their dystopian pipe dream.

William Pyne- The Costume of Great Britain (1805) - The Pillory.JPG
Humiliation

Public Domain, Link

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

15,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's July 20, and we're now at about 15,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. This means that we're 1,000 cases short of what I predicted four days ago. This sets the current rate of doubling at 14 days rather than 13 as I predicted.

Experience from Portugal tells us that once we reach a doubling every 16 days, the growth rate slows dramatically. If current projections hold, we'll see this happen worldwide in less than two weeks.

We're getting close to the tipping point, so we can assume a noticeable slowdown going forward. We can therefore make the following predictions as to the number of cases we'll have going forward:

  • July 24 - doubling rate at 15 days = 17,500 cases
  • July 28 - doubling rate at 16 days = 20,500 cases
  • August 1 - doubling rate at 18 days = 23,000 cases

It looks increasingly unlikely that we're going to see 32,000 cases on August 1, as I predicted on July 8. Monkeypox is not spreading nearly as quickly as some have feared.

Interestingly, Wikipedia is now reporting 62 deaths from the disease. That's up from only 3 back at the start of July. The deaths are all in Africa. But we can only wonder as to why this number would go up 20x over a period when number of cases have only gone up by 2x.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

The 5th Empire - Banking

Modern banking is not a balanced system where everyone is treated equally. Big customers get better deals than smaller ones. In times of crisis, big customers get help. Small ones are forced to sell. When times improve, big customers get the opportunity to borrow money before smaller ones. Instability in financial markets end up enriching those already rich and impoverishing the ones less well off.

However, it's not impossible to use the system to our advantage. Once we understand some key aspects of the system, we can arrange things in such a way that credit is granted at times when it is of most value.

One insight we need to keep in mind is that credit is always abundant and cheap right before a crash. This is the trap that bankrupts the middle class who typically go all in at such times. We are tricked into irresponsible risk taking.

Another insight is that credit is denied when we most need it unless we have debt free collateral. However, if we have collateral, we're treated almost as well as the bank's most privileged borrowers.

The trick is therefore to avoid being all in on leveraged investments, and to have ready collateral when it's of most value to us. But how do we do this in a world where currencies always lose purchasing power over time?

Cash is a loss making avenue, and gold doesn't look like an alternative because banks don't accept it as collateral. There's also a big spread on physical gold so much of our gains are lost in transaction costs. We're therefore lured into more risky investments where transaction costs are lower.

However, the fact that banks don't accept gold as collateral doesn't mean that gold isn't a collateral, and this insight is key to escape the iron grip of the system.

My wife owns her apartment debt free. In a pinch, she can borrow money in the bank with her apartment as collateral. She can also guarantee another person's loan with her apartment as collateral, provided that person is in possession of sufficient gold to cover the risk. If he or she is a close relative, my wife might do this with little collateral. If it's an acquaintance, she may want 100% security and a compensation in cash or gold.

My wife and I know other people who also own their apartments debt free, so we have a small network of friends who can assist us, and we can assist them.

This means that none of us need to save much in fiat currencies. We're free of that hurdle. We're also free of the hurdle related to bank credit. There's plenty of collateral in our network, and little debt. Anyone in possession of physical gold can in this manner find collateral for a bank loan, also when bank loans are difficult to get. Any network of debt free individuals in possession of valid bank collateral can use gold among themselves to arrange for cheap bank loans.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Forcing Elon Musk to Buy Twitter

I predicted back in April that Elon Musk would not be allowed to both own and control Twitter. The rich and the powerful will not allow for this to happen. Elon Musk may be rich in nominal terms, but he's but a pawn in a much bigger game. He's in no position to set the rues.

From the way things have turned out, it appears that I was right in my view of things. There is an anonymous group of people who pull the strings of control. These people are hardly ever mentioned, and are generally viewed as minor figures. But looks deceive. The people most of us think of as rich and powerful are but front figures. It's the shadowy figures in the background who wield real power.

Elon Musk moved out of line. He's been revolting against the agenda. He's been a loose canon on deck for some time, and is now targeted for punishment. With Twitter now stained and damaged by Musk, he's been told to buy it for the price he offered. He will also be prevented from wielding any real power over the company once it's transferred to him.

My prediction was that Elon Musk would either fail to buy or fail to rule. As it turns out, the people in charge have decided to hand him the ultimate punishment: He will be forced to buy and fail to rule.

Elon Musk Royal Society (crop1).jpg
Elon Musk

By Duncan.Hull - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Monday, July 18, 2022

The 5th Empire - Privacy is Key to Liberty

Privacy is key to liberty. Without privacy, no sovereignty is possible. Every little thing we do is watched and judged. If the watchers are strong believers in liberty, we may have some freedom even without privacy. But what is the chances of that? People who like to nose around in other people's business are rarely concerned with liberty. They are more likely to have some agenda or other that they want to foist upon us.

This is why we should value privacy highly in our lives. We should not let others into our plans. We should not let others know how much money we have. In dialogue with others, we should always propose private alternatives to laws and regulations.

When my youngest son in Norway was asked by his high school teacher in class whether he thought swimming should be part of the curriculum in grade school, he said that it should be up to each school to decide on this matter. The answer came as a shock to the teacher who thought it an outrageous right wing idea.

That's what the world has come to. Every little detail in our lives are a matter of public concern, and this will not end well. When private choices are taken away from us, every cause becomes an issue of contention. We have to convince everybody that our desires are right for everyone, and if we can't do that, we're stuck without that particular option.

Similarly with registered wealth; once we register our savings and possessions with banks, registry offices and tax offices, we're no longer sovereign. Any arbitrary law or regulation can be used to confiscate our wealth. While this is unlikely to happen where liberty is highly valued, it becomes more likely for every step taken down the no privacy road. It's therefore important to have some portion of our wealth invested in something that isn't registered with anyone.

We should also choose unregistered trade and commerce whenever there's an option. Why should the taxman know every transaction we make? Why let an anonymous third party into our daily lives? Such people provide no service to our benefit, and serve only to make things more expensive.

There's also no need to run to a lawyer whenever there's a dispute. Arbitration can be done privately. I made no use of a lawyer in order to separate my finances from those of my ex when I divorced her some twenty years ago. Lawyers can't perform miracles. It's easy to figure out in advance what the outcome will be in a court, and a small fortune can be saved by simply proposing a reasonable and somewhat sweet deal to the ex.

I have also lent money to acquaintances against security. Gold coins were used as security in one case, and the arrangement went without any hick-ups.

Once we start looking for private alternatives to what the state is promoting, we realize that there are many things we can do in private to everybody's mutual benefit. Even in a system of great centralized control, there will be liberty for those who know how to operate privately. Centralized control can even work to our advantage, as I discovered when I refused to pay my exit tax from Norway.

The taxman is so used to do his work remotely by computer that he wrote me off as a lost cause once he discovered that I no longer had any registered wealth. Everything I owned was either sold or distributed to my children. Proceeds from sales were used to buy gold. Money was put into my wife's account in Portugal. Dividend paying shares were given to my children. A private deal with my kids guarantee me a part of the dividend stream, and that's how I stay afloat in Porto.

There are ways around the system, and they have this in common: They are all private.

Liberty
Liberty

Sunday, July 17, 2022

When Fact Checkers End Up Confirming Conspiracy Theories

I came across a post about Covid deaths in England on Facebook the other day. It was tagged with a fact check, claiming the information was misleading. However, the title of the fact check article was in many ways more alarming than the original post. It read: "Fact Check: High Vaccination Rate Explains Why 94% Of English COVID Deaths Are Among Fully Vaccinated -- Numbers Only Part Of Full Story"

For the vast majority of people who rarely read beyond the title and ingress of a story, this title merely confirms that vaccines are linked to a death rate of 94%. It also tells us to disregard these numbers and focus on the story, whatever that may be.

If this wasn't bad enough, the article is full of intellectual gymnastics that makes it hard to figure out why exactly the horrible number is nothing to worry about. We are for instance told that if 100% of people were vaccinated for a disease, we would have a death rate of 100% among vaccinated people for that disease. But how does this logic go for a vaccination rate of say 94%? If the vaccine was effective, close to 100% of deaths should be in the 6% who remained unvaccinated.

Yet, they manage to conclude that even at 94% of deaths among the vaccinated, the vaccine can be considered effective. That requires some seriously convoluted thinking, and a whole lot of cognitive dissonance. So much so that I decided to post a link to the article on my Facebook wall.

Since the article is a fact check piece, Facebook slammed no warning on it. But I got a Facebook info box about Covid vaccine resources. Facebook is apparently still involved in the snake oil sales racket.

Facebook f logo (2019).svg

By Facebook, Inc. - http://en.facebookbrand.com, Public Domain, Link

Friday, July 15, 2022

13,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's July 16, and we're now at 13,000 cases of Monkeypox world wide. This means that we're 1,000 cases ahead of what I predicted four days ago. This sets the current rate of doubling at 12 days rather than the 16 that I predicted.

I was too optimistic about the slowdown in doubling rates. We're not yet at the point where these rates slow down rapidly, and we need to revise our predictions.

Sticking with our predictions, the doubling rate should continue to fall, and we can make the following predictions as to the number of cases we're likely to have going forward.

  • July 20 - doubling rate at 13 days = 16,000 cases
  • July 24 - doubling rate at 14 days = 19,500 cases
  • July 28 - doubling rate at 15 days = 23,500 cases
  • August 1 - doubling rate at 16 days = 28,000 cases

Looking at the latest numbers from Portugal, we see that there were 515 cases in that country on July 13. That compares to 415 cases on July 1 and 473 cases on July 7. The increase in the six days from from July 1 to July 7 was 54 cases. The increase in the six days between July 7 to July 13 was 42 cases. We've dropped from an increase of 14% every 6 days to an increase of 8% every 6 days.

An increase of 8% every 6 days translates to a doubling in cases every 54 day. Portugal is therefore unlikely to reach as much as 1000 cases by September 1. If the doubling rates continue to fall at their present rate, Portugal may never reach 1000 cases. With a population of 10 million people, Portugal will top out with one in 10,000 people having caught the bug, and with zero deaths.

Assuming that the rest of the world is no different from Portugal, we can predict a similar trajectory everywhere else, and we can conclude that Monkeypox will never become a widespread disease.

Experience from Portugal tells us that once we reach a doubling every 16 days, the growth rate slows down dramatically. If current projections hold, we'll see this happen worldwide starting August.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Thursday, July 14, 2022

Gold Testing Support Again

The price of paper gold broke briefly below $1700 per ounce today. Having almost reached $2100 back in March, this is disappointing. One support line after another has been broken. However, there's reasons to be optimistic.

There's massive support at around $1670, as can be seen in this monthly chart captured today:

Monthly Gold Chart Captured on July 14
Monthly Gold Chart Captured on July 14

Social Mobility at 10%

A Facebook friend of mine posted a quote by some guy lamenting the fact that 90% of those who are born rich die as rich, and that 90% of those who are born poor die as poor. This was to be taken as evidence that hard work doesn't matter and that the system is rigged against the poor.

No solution was proposed for this supposed problem, but I assume that the intent was to bolster support for inheritance tax, reverse discrimination and the abolishment of private schools and home schooling. That's usually the sort of remedies that people obsessed with relative wealth and social mobility propose. Rather than making an effort to better their lot, they want politicians to sort things out for them.

What's also missing from the picture is how much better off we are today than hundred years ago. It has taken no more than three generations to lift a huge part of the world out of poverty. What does it matter that social mobility is confined to 10% per generation, if the entire economy is moved up several notches in the same period?

Furthermore, 10% social mobility isn't bad. It translates to a turnover of 40% every five generations. Only people obsessed with perceived injustice towards themselves can complain about such a fluid system. To lament this healthy turnover is childish to the extreme. Like a kid lamenting the fact that his friend got an ice-cream. Instead of being happy on his friend's behalf, he resents it.

Only people with an immature and egocentric world view can lament a system that is as fluid as the one we live in. Instead of seeing themselves as one person connecting past and future generations, they see themselves as the end station. All generations before them had but one goal, and that was to produce them as their ultimate offspring. They are the end station, and as such, they deserve the very best the world can offer.

This egocentric world view is sad and empty, because the purpose of life is not consumption. Production isn't the purpose either. The purpose is to build a solid foundation for the future, and we do this in cooperation with others, even if we have no children of our own.

This means that we sacrifice some consumption now with the intent to make life better for people in the future. Instead of consuming everything we own, we put aside some of it for the children. We save and we invest in the education and wellbeing of our children or other people's children. None of this requires the "help" of politicians.

If we are good at laying a foundation for our children, chances are that they will either remain at their current status, or move up a notch or two. If we neglect our role as foundation builders, we're more likely to see our children descend into lower classes.

To succeed in this, we must encourage our children to do what's right for themselves and their future families. We must discourage gambling and over-consumption. We must encourage them to be polite and friendly, and respect people's right to privacy.

Our children are just as much a node in a long chain of generations as we are. That too, we must teach them so that our generational project is sustained into the future. It's not all about us, nor is it all about the future or the past. The right balance is where we get the most out of life for ourselves while at the same time building a solid foundation for our children.

Nygaard, William Martin og Constance f, Wiel, 1914.jpg
Constance and William

Av Gustav Borgen – Norsk Folkemuseum: image no. NFB.49970, via digitaltmuseum.no., Offentlig eiendom, Lenke

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

The Geopolitics of Pride

The mark of a good person is that he's primarily concerned with private affairs. The mark of a politician is that he's primarily concerned with the affairs of others. Good people don't pressure others into changing their ways. At most, they will give advice and point out advantages of changed behavior. Only those overly concerned with politics will constantly pressure and harass others into change.

Another thing to note about politics is that it only thrives in an environment of strife. It is therefore to the advantage of politicians to make sure people are diverse in their ways and at the same time concerned with the private affairs of others.

This is also true at the level of geopolitics, and it explains why Pride is such a big deal in the West. Being in any way skeptical to Pride is cause for resentment and anger, but only in the West. Other cultures don't have this particular fetish with Pride. Nor do sub-cultures in the West have any strong liking for Pride. It's the ruling class and it's minions that get all worked up and excited about Pride.

Pride functions in this way as a cultural spearhead into other cultures. It's a rallying cry for Westerners intent on dominating other cultures, including local sub-cultures. This is why it's such a big deal that conservatives are generally skeptical to Pride.

It also explains why Russians are portrayed as homophobic. Their alleged intolerance of gay people is reason to act aggressively against them. The West is morally obliged to change Russia, and we have at once a reason to sanction them. It's not only about Ukraine. It's about liberty and tolerance, as expressed through gay Pride.

But Pride is not the end goal. It's merely a spearhead for further conquest. Once the spirit of Pride is installed in a population with non-Western values, as defined by the ruling elite of the West, zealots can be relied upon to wreck havoc among those opposed to them. The Orthodox Church is a target. The Russian oligarchy equally so. Anyone opposed to Pride must go, and be replaced by some merry puppet of the West.

Pride is a weapon. Global dominance is the goal.

Gay flag 8.svg
Gay flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Ten Days of Maintenance

Russia has turned off gas supplies to Europe through its northern pipeline due to ten days of necessary maintenance. The pipeline will be turned back on on July 22, unless there are unresolved issues remaining.

The mere specter of a possible prolonged shutdown has already won Putin a point. Germany has pressured Canada into releasing a turbine necessary for the proper functioning of the pipeline. German politicians don't want to give Putin any excuses, and are willing to make concessions to avoid a showdown over the pipeline.

Putin is on his side wary of irking the West into military action, so he's not likely to shut the pipeline down without plausible excuse. But he will no doubt use the leverage at his disposal to its fullest extent.

Putin has been frustrated by German refusal to allow a second pipeline to be opened, and he's also frustrated by the West's continued support of Ukraine. It would be strange if he's not thinking of ways to resolve these issues to his liking.

My guess is that the pipeline will be opened as promised on July 22, possibly at 100% capacity, but that issues are found relatively soon afterwards. Gas flow will be sporadic, and Putin will argue that this problem can be resolved by opening the second pipeline.

Technical issues can also be made to coincide with issues related to Ukraine. Putin needs only plausible deniability in order to avoid direct confrontation with the West, and he can maintain this by making gas supplies sufficiently erratic to only correlate loosely with geopolitical issues.

Vladimir Putin (2018-03-01) 03 (cropped).jpg
Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

10,000 Cases of Monkeypox

It's July 12, and the global number of Monkeypox cases has just passed 10,000. That's a doubling in cases since June 28, when we passed 5,000.

This may sound like bad news, but the latest number are in fact showing a marked improvement on the situation only four days ago. Back then, we were seeing the number of cases double every 12 days. That has now changed to every 14 days.

If this slowdown in the growth rate persists, we'll have the following doubling rates going forward:

  • July 16 - 16 days
  • July 20 - 18 days
  • July 24 - 20 days
  • July 28 - 22 days
  • August 1 -24 days

If this pans out, we'll have less than 20,000 cases by July 26, and less than 25,000 cases by August 1. However, even this number may be overly pessimistic, because the rate of spread is dropping off rapidly in countries that were early into the outbreak.

Looking at Portugal as a leading indicator, we see that its rate of doubling which was 16 days on July 1 has improved a lot by July 7. We get this by noting that there were 415 cases on July 1 against 473 cases on July 7. That's a 14% increase over 6 days, which translates to a doubling every 24 days.

If the world follows Portugal's lead we may not even reach 20,000 cases globally by August 1.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Monday, July 11, 2022

An Applied Strategy of Dread and Hope

I've long since given up on trying to sway people's opinions about things through arguments, especially on Facebook where most of my friends see me as a sad eccentric. Instead, I've adopted a fact based approach. I present observations without value statements attached. I don't process the facts into value based information and conclusions. I leave that up to each one to do for him or herself.

This strategy is based on ideas from a year ago. In my post on how to convert the vaccinated, I suggest a combination of dread and hope. In the case of the vaccine, merely bringing it up as a topic is enough to inflict a sense of dread, so there's no point in any additional stunt. I'm no longer wearing my don't do drugs T-shirt. It's too explicit and dark in these days of increasing anxiety about the long term effect of the vaccine.

Knowing that the mere mention of excess deaths since 2021 causes anxiety, I focus on the hope aspect of the strategy, which is to underscore positive developments and downplay anything negative. My latest posts on notable deaths and Monkeypox, were both framed with this in mind.

This is the opposite of what others often do. However, nothing is achieved with a doomsayer approach where negative news is emphasized and good news is ignored. It merely comes across as vindictive and mean, and those who agree with us will abandon us because our predictions will hardly ever pan out due to our overly pessimistic approach. We end up as the grumpy ones that no-one takes seriously and hardly anyone likes.

Without optimism, predictions fail because nature is resilient and capable of repair. A lack of optimism will also fail to convert anyone into seeing things our way, because no hope is offered. There's nothing but dread, and therefore nothing to gain from listening to us. However, with hope thrown into the mix, we'll find people willing to listen, because we'll provide them with reasons to be hopeful. We'll also be right in most of our predictions.

Another reason why we should add hope to our strategy is that we never know who might suddenly find themselves in need of proactive hope. Our message is neither one of pure doom and gloom nor one of baseless hope. We give reasons for our optimism, and it is this reasoned optimism that provide hope that we can believe in.

As it turns out, my brother in law is in need of this type of hope right now. He had a heart attack the other day, and he's currently in intensive care. The situation is bleak, and the last thing he needs now is a doomsayer telling him that all hope is out, and that it's all his fault for having taken the vaccine and booster.

Tellingly, my brother in law is turning to my wife for help despite knowing full well what we think about his situation. He's not shunning us. He might even be revising his views on things. Hopefully, he'll refrain from taking the next booster when it's made available to him this fall.

Family outing in Porto
Family outing in Porto

Saturday, July 9, 2022

Symbolism in Overdrive

The Georgia Guidestones were no doubt erected by people with an inflated idea of their own importance. The goal was probably to provide advice to people in a post-apocalyptic world. Their chosen alias was R. C. Christian, indicating that they were Rosicrucian mystics. That's a fairly benign esoteric order. However, once people decide to go about things in a secretive manner, there's no telling what others may make of their symbols and messages. The door is left open for all sorts of interpretations that may have nothing to do with the original intent.

With many people convinced that the elite is determined to cull the global population, the Guidstones received a lot of attention due to an apparent appeal for such a culling. While the original intent may have been to advice survivors from a nuclear Holocaust to refrain from overpopulating the planet, the alternative interpretation was that it was a call to actively reduce the current world population.

The stones became a symbol of elite hubris, and they were therefore blown up one night. This act too was done in secret. It's also symbolic, and we are now left with a new symbol. The hubris of the elite has been shattered by a late night act of vandalism.

Some have in turn interpret this as a rallying cry for the overthrow of the elite, and that was almost certainly not the original intent by the people who decided to erect the monument. But that's how things go when things are done in secret and intentionally steeped in symbolism.

Georgia Guidestones in Elbert County, GA.jpg
Georgia Guidestones

By Quentin Melson - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Vímara Peres

The Cathedral of Porto is located on a hilltop overlooking the river Douro. Next to this monumental building, there's a statue of a knight on horseback, with the inscription Vímara Peres, followed by the dates of his reign: 868-873.

When we look him up in Wikipedia, we learn that the man was the first count of Portugal, with ties to Asturias in present day Spain. Vímara Peres was, despite his short rain, a central figure in the re-conquest of Iberia. He's the founder of Guimarães. He's also credited for the revival of Porto which had seen 400 years of decline since the Romans left the area during Rome's terminal decline.

When Vímara Peres entered Porto with his army, the city was all but completely deserted. Centuries of raid by various bands of thieves had rendered the city unlivable. However, Vímara Peres was able to turn this around in a matter of years, which suggests that he was following some unusually successful strategy, capable of returning order to places steeped in chaos.

The strategy employed by Vímara Peres appears to have come from Asturias where there was a pivotal battle that took place at Covadonga more than 140 years before Vímara Peres marched into Porto.

When the Berbers crossed the Mediterranean in 711, it took only 3 years to conquer the entirety of the peninsula. Everyone was either converted to Islam, forced to pay the Jizya, or killed. Tax offices were set up everywhere in order to collect the Jizya, including in Asturias. However, the Christians in this region refused to pay this tax. Whenever the tax collector came for them, they retreated into strongholds. Hence, Asturias was not in fact subdued.

The tax evasion was no big deal for the Caliphate, but nevertheless a thorn in its side. It was therefore decided to put an end to the Christian opposition.

The decision to attack the Christians of Asturias in force came after the battle of Toulouse in 721 when the Muslims had to give up on their plan to sack Toulouse in order to further enrich the Caliph. It was thought that a victory against Asturias would lessen the anger of the Caliph. However, the attack ended in yet another defeat. The Christians retreated to their strong holds, from which they successfully beat back the attacking army.

With victory for the Christians in Toulouse and Asturias, the idea that the Muslims were invincible was broken, and the re-conquest of Iberia could start. But the Caliphate was by no means defeated. The defeat at Cavadonga was a minor incident at the time. The reaction to it must have been primarily relief on the side of the Christians and surprise on the side of the Muslims.

Faced with one of the biggest empires of all time, the tiny state of Asturias was in no position to launch an all out counter offensive. Instead, the focus was on stability and security within its borders. The right conditions were created for trade and commerce to thrive.

Offensive war was only waged at small scale, targeted towards weak spots. Mismanaged and over-taxed villages were added to Asturias bit by bit. Stability and security was extended, which further helped trade and commerce.

Meanwhile, Muslim conquerors were running out of people to exploit. People were either fleeing to Asturias, hiding in remote places, or converting to Islam. Without a tax base, and with little to no intent of providing actual security for their subjects, competing factions squabbled among themselves. Towns fell into decay, and there was violence and intolerance everywhere. The contrast between Porto and comparable cities to the north must have been great.

By the time Vímara Peres marched into Porto, everyone but a few die hard Muslims must have been rooting for him. With the Muslims along the Douro underfunded and demoralized, the victory over them was swift and decisive. Law and order was established, and Porto sprang back into the sort of dominance that it had last seen in Roman times, some 400 years prior.

Porto April 2019-18.jpg
Vímara Peres

By Alvesgaspar - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Friday, July 8, 2022

Looking for Satan

The Georgia Guidestones were blown up the other day. The culprit hasn't been found, so we can only speculate about the motive, but the Guidestones were widely believed to be satanic. We can therefore assume that they were blown up because of this. But what exactly was it about the Guidestones that made them satanic? We don't know the motive behind the monument's construction, and there's nothing directly satanic about the messages inscribed, so why conclude that they are satanic rather than well meaning advice?

There's nothing in the Bible that contradicts what was carved into stone. The message was not in itself satanic. However, it can nevertheless be seen as satanic due to the way that the message was presented.

The thing to note is the secrecy surrounding the monument's construction. Once we realize the motive for this secrecy, we see that the monument was in fact satanic, regardless of intended message.

Shrouding things in mystery is a technique used in order to convey power and authority, and there can be no doubt that the Guidesones were erected with this intent. The fact that the message had ten commandments is also telling. There were also some astronomic references put into the monument, no doubt with the intent to portray wisdom.

Whoever erected the monument didn't simply make a few suggestions, they proclaimed authority as well. They acted with vanity and hubris. Their intent was not merely to inform but to command. They viewed themselves as God's chosen messengers, with authority to dazzle. Furthermore, the messages inscribed into the monument were not from the Bible. They were extensions to what's in the Bible, and carved into stone with feigned authority.

This type of behavior is what got Lucifer kicked out of Heaven. He thought himself smart enough to extend and bend the rules laid out by God.

Whenever we have a smart idea that's admittedly a little too clever, it's Lucifer and not God we're hearing. When we act on such impulses for ourselves, we sin. When we elevate such impulses into commandments, we do not only sin, we engage in Satanism.

Whoever erected the Georgia Guidestones were by this definition engaged in Satanism. It doesn't matter that their intent may have been good. They may truly have believed that they were acting on behalf of God. But that's often the case when it comes to sinful behavior. Satanism is not identified by intent. It's identified by feigned authority, and the lack of correspondence with God's rules.

It is never up to us to lay down rules for others. That which is out of our private sphere is none of our business. Such matters are resolved privately by the individuals concerned, and only God can pass final judgment on their schemes. All we can do when it comes to the affairs of others is to present our opinions and extend our advice. We can preach the words of God. We can offer to act as arbitrators in disputes. But we cannot pretend authority from God to act on his behalf. We cannot take God's name in vain.

Paradise Lost 12.jpg
Paradise lost

Thursday, July 7, 2022

Impact of Pride Month on Monkeypox

It's July 8, and the global number of Monkeypox cases has just passed 8,000. My prediction from June 23 was for this to happen on July 9, which means that I was off by only one day.

We can conclude from this that Pride month had no major impact on the spread of the disease. We have not seen an acceleration in its spread. On the contrary, the rate of increase is declining. We used to see a doubling of cases every 9 days. This has now slowed down to a doubling every 12 days.

If the spread continues at the present rate through July, we will have 32,000 cases world wide by August 1. If we come in substantially below this number, we can conclude that the outbreak is in decline.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

The Power and the Impotence of the Occult

Someone brought a few sticks of dynamite to the Georgia Guidestones, attached them to one of its pillars, and blew it up. The damage was unrepairable, and the monument has now been bulldozed to the ground.

What was supposed to last for millennia lasted less than fifty years. The "eternal message" engraved into stone is now nothing but rubble. All it took for this to happen was one relatively small act of vandalism.

The significance of this goes deeper than it may appear, because the occult is an important tool for the elite, and the Guidestones were steeped in mysticism. Whoever erected the stones intended them to project power and dominance. By blowing them up, the power to dominate was rendered impotent.

Georgia Guidestones in Elbert County, GA.jpg
Georgia Guidestones

By Quentin Melson - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Was Mohammed Barkindo Vaccinated?

OPEC chief Mohammed Barkindo died suddenly a few days ago. He was only 61 years old.

The question that springs to mind in cases like this is whether or not he was vaccinated, but such information is rarely available. However, we can get a good indication of people's vaccine status by looking at statements that they've made.

In the case of Mohammed Barkindo, an article from a year ago by Hart Energy has this to note:

While OPEC’s Barkindo noted that vaccine rollouts and the “massive fiscal stimulus” aided an upbeat outlook, uneven global vaccine availability, high inflation and continued COVID-19 outbreaks remain continued risks to oil demand.

The man had evidently great faith in both the vaccine and fiscal stimulus. It would be strange if he wasn't himself vaccinated.

Mohammed Barkindo September 2016 (29604098012) (cropped).jpg
Mohammed Barkindo

By Bundesministerium für Europa, Integration und Äußeres - OPEC, CC BY 2.0, Link

Monkeypox in Portugal

Back on June 1, when I last wrote about Monkeypox in Portugal, there were 119 cases in this country. Fast forward to July 1 and there are 415 cases.

This means that Portugal is currently seeing a doubling of cases every 16 to 17 days. That's a good deal slower than the global doubling rate which is at around 10 days.

Monkeypox cumulative-cases linear-plot.svg
Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link

Portugal, which was hit by the outbreak relatively early, is seeing a slowdown. Assuming that Portugal remains a leading indicator as far as the future trajectory of the disease is concerned, we should see the global doubling rate drop to that of Portugal. With Portugal one month ahead of the pack, we can predict the global total for August 1. Portugal saw a fourfold increase in cases from June to July. The world is therefore likely to see the same from July to August. That would set the global total at around 32,000 on August 1.

Of the roughly 8000 cases globally we've had so far, there has been only one death, and that was in Nigeria. That compares to a mortality rate of about 10% during previous outbreaks. It appears from this that the current version of Monkeypox is no more lethal than COVID, and much less transmittable. Even if we get 32,000 cases globally by August, our chances of catching the disease is minuscule.

Portugal has seen only 40 cases per million people, and we have a global mortality rate of about 1 in 10,000. The chances of anyone dying from Monkeypox is in other words one in 250 million. That's hardly anything to panic about, even if 40 people per million end up with ugly blisters that take a week or two to heal.

Monkeypox.jpg
Monkeypox

By not listed - http://phil.cdc.gov (CDC's Public Health Image Library) Media ID #2329, Public Domain, Link

Notable Deaths in June

With June behind us, we now have another month of notable deaths to analyze.

Absolute numbers for June 2022 came in at 670. That's better than 2020 and 2021, but still 10% higher than the average for 2018 and 2019:

  • 587 in June 2018
  • 629 in June 2019
  • 736 in June 2020
  • 745 in June 2021
  • 670 in June 2022

Deaths among those younger than 70 years of age came in at 21.2%. That's in line with historic figures, and well below the June 2021 figure of 26% which was a historic outlier:

  • 19.57% in June 2018
  • 22.26% in June 2019
  • 20.52% in June 2020
  • 26.04% in June 2021
  • 21.19% in June 2022

Using a severity formula that divides old deaths by 10 and multiplies young deaths by 4 we get the 621. That's a lot better than 831 in June 2021, which was particularly severe, but only slightly better than June 2020 which came in at 663:

  • 507 in June 2018
  • 609 in June 2019
  • 663 in June 2020
  • 831 in June 2021
  • 621 in June 2022

Numbers remain elevated relative to 2018 and 2019, but trending lower. June 2022 saw a significant improvements on May 2022 when the severity adjusted number came in at 709.

Notable deaths according to Wikipedia
Notable deaths according to Wikipedia

Here are the raw numbers:


June 2022:

  • 20s = 10 = 1.49%
  • 30s = 16 = 2.39%
  • 40s = 21 = 3.13%
  • 50s = 34 = 5.07%
  • 60s = 61 = 9.10%
  • 70s = 156 = 23.28%
  • 80s = 214 = 31.94%
  • 90s = 145 = 21.64%
  • 100+ = 13 = 1.94%

Total = 670; Younger than 70 = 21.19%

June 2021:

  • 20s = 7 = 0.94%
  • 30s = 15 = 2.01%
  • 40s = 31 = 4.16%
  • 50s = 51 = 6.85%
  • 60s = 90 = 12.08%
  • 70s = 173 = 23.22%
  • 80s = 194 = 26.04%
  • 90s = 174 = 23.36%
  • 100+ = 10 = 1.34%

Total = 745; Younger than 70 = 26.04%

June 2020:

  • 20s = 7 = 1.35%
  • 30s = 19 = 1.47%
  • 40s = 19 = 2.21%
  • 50s = 44 = 6.39%
  • 60s = 102 = 12.29%
  • 70s = 168 = 23.83%
  • 80s = 238 = 29.48%
  • 90s = 165 = 21.01%
  • 100+ = 14 = 1.86%

Total = 736; Younger than 70 = 20.52%

June 2019:

  • 20s = 11 = 1.75%
  • 30s = 6 = 0.95%
  • 40s = 20 = 3.18%
  • 50s = 35 = 5.56%
  • 60s = 68 = 10.81%
  • 70s = 145 = 23.05%
  • 80s = 205 = 32.59%
  • 90s = 128 = 20.35%
  • 100+ = 11 = 1.75%

Total = 629; Younger than 70 = 22.26%

June 2018:

  • 20s = 7 = 1.19%
  • 30s = 5 = 0.85%
  • 40s = 11 = 1.87%
  • 50s = 26 = 4.43%
  • 60s = 66 = 11.24%
  • 70s = 118 = 20.10%
  • 80s = 218 = 31.14%
  • 90s = 124 = 21.12%
  • 100+ = 12 = 2.04%

Total = 587; Younger than 70 = 19.57%


Wikipedia-logo-v2.svg
Wikipedia

CC BY-SA 3.0Link