Wagner in Belarus

It's impossible to say exactly what's going on in Russia, but one thing is certain, we're witnessing some deceptive political theatre. Nothing is what it seems on first glance. We have to dig deeper in order to figure out what's really happening.

One factor of importance is that the Wagner group has been dismantled inside Russia, but allowed to continue its existence in Belarus. This means that a large number of mercenaries have moved north of the current frontline, ready to strike the northern flank of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

With Ukrainian soldiers unable to break through the Russian defensive lines, they are now in a precarious situation where they might find themselves stuck between Russian minefields to their east and Wagner units to their west and north.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link

Bailing out Central Banks

"The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."

- Vladimir Lenin

Marxists hate the middle class, which they call the bourgeoisie among themselves. The main reason for this is that the existence of a middle class is proof that Marxism is based on a false premise. We aren't all either suppressed or suppressors. Some of us both own the means of production and engage in commerce at a practical level.

The middle class is both labour and capital at the same time. They will remain passive in a struggle between the two, and they must therefore be eliminated so that we can get a nicely divided society that can bring forth a revolution.

An important tool in this endeavour is the creation of a central bank, and Vladimir Lenin was a great proponent of this progressive institution. He saw clearly how it could be used to create a small class of super-rich individuals with everybody else but state functionaries, poor and dispossessed.

Central banks function as a legally sanctioned counterfeiting outfits. They create cheap credit out of nothing, which they hand over to the state and the well connected. The bureaucracy can in this way grow without the constraint that sound money would entail, and the well connected get their hands on cheap credit that they use to buy up assets from the less well connected middle class.

We get a class of super-rich investors, and a large bureaucracy of state functionaries that replace the middle class. This is how we got to where we are at the moment. However, things are going to get worse.

Decades of cheap credit has resulted in losses on central banks' balance sheets. They bought bonds and other interest bearing assets in order to suppress interest rates. Now that interest rates are higher, these assets are less worth. The assets held by central banks are less than the credit they created, which means that there's a lot of money sloshing around that isn't anchored in anything of value.

This will lead to massive out of control price inflation if not rectified, so the bureaucracy has come up with a plan. They will bail out the central banks with tax money. Fake money given to the super-rich is going to be replaced with real money taken from the middle class, precisely as Lenin predicted a hundred years ago.

Vladimir Lenin

By Pavel Semyonovich Zhukov (1870-1942) - [1], Public Domain, Link

Unwavering Trust in the State

It's amazing to see people still having full faith and confidence in the state after all the harm they've done to us over the years. An example of this blind trust came from a Facebook friend of mine who claimed that the root cause of the submarine incidence the other day was due to a lack of state oversight. If only the state had been given broader powers to regulate the submarine market, lives would have been saved. However, this simplistic thinking overlooks several key points.

For one, state run certification agencies have a lousy track record. They make mistakes, they are easily corrupted, and they never have to pay the price for being wrong. When state run certification agencies fail, they get more funding. When private certification agencies fail, they lose business.

The Boeing Max planes that dropped out of the sky a few years ago were certified by the state. The Titanic was certified according to state rules. The vaccines we were told to take during the virus scare were certified by the state. All these disasters were largely due to state interference in the certification business. To think that even more state regulation would solve any of this is naïve to say the least. Besides, lots of people don't even bother to ask if something is certified or not.

One reason so many people don't bother to ask if a product or service has been certified is again due to the state. People simply assume that everything is certified by the state. Why ask about certification status if the answer is a given? However, in a free market with no directives from the state, more people would want to know the certification status of things they get themselves involved with. Not only would they ask if something is certified, they would also want to know by whom the certification was given. Only reputable agencies would be trusted.

But there will always be those who are willing to risk it regardless of safety issues. The question then becomes, is it really the state's business to make sure that no-one ever does anything without a permit?

Cyclops 1 Submersible

By Isabeljohnson25 - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Signs of a Crumbling Ukrainian Frontline

Russia is back in the headlines with rumours of a coup attempt against Putin by the Wagner group of mercenaries. This comes only days after the Ukrainian defence minister had to come out and tell people that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing with Ukrainian forces on the retreat at several points along the frontline.

The squabble reported in Russia is in other words a repeat of what we saw during the fall of Bakhmut, only magnitudes greater. Putin and Wagner appear to be fighting each other while a major victory is unfolding.

In the case of Bakhmut, the squabble turned out to be of great value to the Russians who managed to confuse their enemies sufficiently to draw them into a hopeless final battle for the city. What we're witnessing now might well be a repeat of the same trick, but instead of a key city falling into Russian hands, we'll see a collapse of the entire Ukrainian frontline.

What we're witnessing isn't in fact a squabble. Rather, it's political theatre that serves to solve several problems faced by the Russians in their hour of victory:

• The apparent squabble makes it harder for the West to organize a false flag or terror attack because it's unclear who it should be directed against.
• It emboldens hard pressed Ukrainian soldiers to take excessive risk along the frontline.
• It readies the Russian public to accept the establishment of a vassal kingdom under Wagner control in the Donbas region.

The fact that Wagner now controls Rostov, a Russian city close to the border of Ukraine, strengthens the hypothesis that Wagner has been promised territory as part of their pay. This has historically been the way powerful mercenary armies have been rewarded, but this type of reward cannot be given without a good excuse.

That excuse is now being prepared in the form of a negotiated peace between Putin and Wagner.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

Financialization, and how to deal with it

Financialization is a process in which things ordinarily not considered tradable becomes a commodity that can be exchanged for money. This process has taken off in a big way in the west, and is the reason so many feel trapped in a system they don't like. Everything, it seems, is now regulated and taxed.

It used to be that a household consisted of one breadwinner and one stay at home parent. Nowadays, this arrangement is rare. Both parents have to be out working in order to make ends meet. The reason for this is that the state has traded their tax-base for money by the issuance of large amount of government debt. It is the ordinary man in the street that has to pay the interest on this debt through taxation, and not a penny of it is returned to us in the form of better services.

The biggest driver behind the financialization of our economy is the state, and the state is also the biggest direct participant. Once we realize this, we see that the most significant thing we can do in order to better our situation is to avoid the taxman. Key to this is to realize a few things about the tax system, and how financialization plays into it.

The state has now a tax on just about everything we do or own. However, there are still things of value that are not taxed. There's no tax on household activities. There's no tax on making good food for the family. There's no tax on time spent with the kids. Walks in the park, and a lot of other valuable activities are tax free.

The state's push against conservative family arrangements where one parent stays at home to take care of things isn't so much due to a hatred of conservatives per se, but because there's no taxes associated with the stay at home parent. A lot of value is produced, but none of it can be taxed. Hence, to the state, the stay at home parent is worthless.

Herein lies the clue as to how we best deal with the financialized state. Instead of buying things that can be taxed, we buy things that cannot be taxed. Instead of spending time on the acquisition of taxable product and services, we focus on things that cannot be taxed. We can for instance learn to cook like a pro, and thereby eat well for a pittance compared to a restaurant. Instead of a second home for summer vacations, we spend time in the local park. We can go for outings, even rent a cabin for a week, and still end up spending less than what we have to pay in taxes and fees on a summer house.

Once we realize the importance of reduced taxation, we also realize that going down from a 100% position to a 50% position doesn't mean a reduction of income by 50%. Progressive taxation hits both ways. Working 50% reduces net income by less than 50%, and the time freed up can be used to create value that cannot be taxed.

Quality time that cannot be taxed

When Opportunity Knocks

Great opportunities don't come along very often, but we do come across some in the course of our lives. However, many either don't recognize the opportunities for what they are, or they don't have the means to capitalize on those that cross their path.

A common mistake, especially among young people, is to mistake a mere coincidence for an opportunity, and fire off all our dry powder in order to take part in it. My meeting with Mr Cork a few years back was of this kind. However, I realized that the prices of his forests were too high. His offer was not sufficiently good to make it worth the cost.

But now it appears that I've come across a real opportunity, and true to form, it took me a few days before I realized that this might well be it. A cousin of mine is selling his shares in our family business back in Norway, and the price at which he's willing to sell looks likely to be low. He appears to be in money trouble, and he has to take whatever offer he's given. With our family business being something of a legal minefield for people outside our family, and most of our family members neck deep in debt, I'm pretty much the only significant buyer around.

A lot of things still have to be figured out, but it appears that my son here in Portugal is soon going to be one of the twenty biggest shareholders in the largest wholly family-owned company in Norway. This is only possible because I've recognized the opportunity for what it is, and I've kept my savings in gold, safe from inflation and readily convertible to cash.

Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Narrative Stubs

There have been a number of strange infrastructure incidents in the US lately, some involving goods trains carrying toxic materials and others involving roads and the electric grid. None of these incidents have been described as anything other than accidents. No-one seems interested in investigating the mysterious circumstances involved.

On a similar note, we have the Wuhan lab theory. This story comes and goes. It's as if it's kept alive just enough to one day spring into full bloom.

There are many stories suitable for propaganda purposes that haven't been fully developed. The Wuhan lab theory can be shaped into an argument against China, and the infrastructure incidents can be pinned on just about anyone. All that's needed is for some investigator to come forward with "conclusive" evidence of malice. The media machinery can then be engaged to shape public opinion.

For example, we had the highway bridge that collapsed in Philadelphia the other day. It happened during the early stages of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, and a day before a massive NATO exercise in Europe.

More than two hundred NATO aircrafts are currently in the air, ready to strike Russia. All that's needed is for Ukrainian forces to breach the Russian defences, and a potential victory is at hand, in which case NATO's aircrafts should be engaged. However, that can only be done with popular support in the West.

This is where the media comes into play. For the West to help Ukraine directly in their attack against Russia, there has to be a story of terrorism and sabotage in the West, perpetrated by Russian agents. A barrage of such stories at the right moment is precisely what will be needed, and this is probably the reason for all the narrative stubs.

The stories are kept dormant on purpose. They are to be activated only in the event of an opportunity to attack either Russia or China.

The mask of the beast

Dangerous Combo

The US has seen a number of mysterious infrastructure failures over the last months. There have been train accidents, and now there's a bridge in Philadelphia that's collapsed due to an accident involving a truck. All of this looks like sabotage, but no such conclusion has been made so far. However, this latest accident may well be investigated as an act of terrorism by Russian agents.

The reason for this is that NATO is starting a large scale military exercise in Europe tomorrow. It will be very convenient for western war hawks if the blame for the bridge collapse can be pinned on Russia during these exercises.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link

The Progressive Idea

The Progressive era started in 1913 with the establishment of a central bank in the US, and it probably came to an end in 2022. Peak pride, peak vaccine, peak climate hysteria, peak NATO, and an economy completely out of whack spelled the end of confidence in experts.

It started and ended with the idea that experts can handle things better than the free market. This idea was born during the Liberal era that started with the defeat of Napoleon in 1814. The progress made during the Liberal era was remarkable, and this was a mystery to many observers because the era was marked by a dramatic reduction in centralized planning. Gone was the all powerful aristocracy and clergy. Instead, we got merchants and industrialists, and they did a far better job at making life easier for people than any king or nobleman had ever achieved.

But how could something as chaotic as a free market be superior to an economy directed by experts? Many concluded that it wasn't in fact superior. All that had changed in 1814 was a move from incompetent experts to competent experts. The aristocracy had simply been replaced by a better aristocracy, namely the merchants and industrialists that had emerged.

In support of this idea, we had the observation that the most successful industrialists revealed themselves to be expert planners. They would streamline production. They would cut out middlemen. They would take charge of ever-larger chunks of the production process. This was proof that it wasn't in fact the free market that had caused the progress during the Liberal era. It was all due to better experts running things, and the ideal society should therefore be run and operated by such experts.

A society run by experts would run at an optimum. It would see more progress than any other form of organization, and an era in the spirit of this idea should therefore be called the progressive era. The term was not coined by sceptics like me but by the believers themselves who still proudly declare themselves as progressives.

As it turned out, people quickly discovered that there are two main strains of progressive thinking. One has the state apparatus and its bureaucracy as both the planner and executioner of policy. The other has the state as the planner, and privately held companies as the executioner. The first one is known as Socialism and the second one is popularly called Fascism. However, they are not opposite extremes as many will have it. They are two of a kind. Both hold unwavering faith in the superiority of experts over the chaos of a free market.

Streamlining and conformity is the name of the Progressive game. There shouldn't be a marketplace full of competition. The focus should be on what's best, and the best minds in the world should gather around what's best in order to make it even better. Since this idea came from academia, it spread quickly through theoretical sciences. Today, there can be no discussion outside of a very limited set of ideas within theoretical physics. There simply aren't any teaching positions to be had in higher education that fall outside accepted dogma.

Education is today completely set in Progressive thinking. No opposing views are allowed. The fundamentals cannot be discussed. The only area of discussion is what expert solution to choose. Stagnation rather than progress has been the end result of Progressive policies in education.

Health care has gone the same direction. We can choose between different vaccines, and we can choose between different types of pills, but there's no point in arguing for natural remedies. The experts are clear when it comes to what healthy living looks like, and it's not from nature. Man has conquered nature. The experts are now gods, and God is dead.

The ultimate goal of the Progressives is a single world wide governing body of experts that dictate all activities on the globe. This one world order was tested out for all to see during the virus scare, and it showed that the entire globe can in fact be directed by a handful of individuals. Decrees by experts were followed slavishly by every health institution in the world. However, the results were horrible. Every piece of advice turned out to be wrong.

It turns out that when we enable experts to reign freely, they quickly start thinking of themselves as infallible goods. Any idea that comes to their mind must be true, and from this idea springs pure madness. We get people thinking they can define themselves as anything they like. The mere thought of something makes it true. A man can be a woman. Wars can be won by unwavering belief. Money can be printed ad infinitum. Wind turbines can save the world from imagined threats.

The end station of Progressive policy making is pure madness, and that's what we've had for a few years now. The Progressives still think they can push their ideas further, but that looks increasingly doubtful. Now that most people have woken up to the mess created by the madmen in charge of the state bureaucracy, resistance to additional moves towards the Progressive utopia is on the increase.

We have entered a new era, much like the one we entered after 1814, and we can expect things to improve from this point forward. Now that the Progressive idea has been laid to rest for a few generations to come, we can look forward to an increasingly diverse world. The new era will be multipolar and full of opportunities for the creative and industrious.

A world of opportunities

Peak Pride

Pride month isn't being celebrated with the same vigour as last year. I take this as yet another indication that 2022 really was the year when the progressive era came to an end. The progressive era has exhausted itself. There's nowhere to go but back towards liberty and conservative family values.

This change is starting to dawn on a number of key players, and the reactions in the Pride community are especially amusing. There seems to be something of a mental meltdown going on. All sorts of insane nonsense is being spewed, ranging from calling boycotters of Target terrorist to threats of violence. The impression we get is that these people really are as mentally ill as they look.

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link

One Dam, Two Stories

Someone blew a hole in a Russian controlled dam the other day. That's a war crime. That much is certain. However, who's to blame isn't equally clear, at least not to everyone. There are two narratives, one pinning the blame on Putin. The other pinning the blame on NATO supported Ukraine.

The narrative put forward by most western intellectuals is that the sabotage of the dam came in response to the recently launched counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. The Russians blew a hole in their own dam in order to flood the frontline with water, while at the same time blaming their opponents for resorting to terrorism.

The narrative presented by the Russians is that western backed Ukrainian forces blew a hole in the dam out of desperation. Their much touted counteroffensive was a dud that had to be cancelled within hours of starting. Being bad losers, they decided to terrorise the Russians instead while putting the blame on Putin. An added bonus to the Ukrainians is the massive civilian emergency created which will slow down any counter-counteroffensives that the Russians may have planned.

These narratives may seem equally believable to the casual observer. However, there are a few points to this story that tilts the story towards the Russian viewpoint. The dam that was blown up provides water to Crimea, it provides cooling water to a nuclear reactor controlled by the Russians, and the flooding is primarily affecting ethnic Russians. Blowing it up is terrorism, plain and simple, and the victims are all ethnic Russians. Only if the Russians were about to be completely overwhelmed by Ukrainian forces would such a desperate act be taken by the man who sees himself as a father to all Russians.

It appears then that we have to look outside Russia in order to find the true terrorists.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link

Democratic Mechanisms

Democracy is a word primarily associated with politics. Every so often we get to choose between two pre-selected candidates who get to rule over us for a term of years. However, this is far from the most effective democratic mechanism, and this is becoming clearer by the day.

People vote with their feet. When our rulers start ganging up on certain people, they leave. The reason I'm living in Portugal rather than Norway is that Portugal is a better place to live for people in my situation. My decision to move was based on a simple value proposition. It was clear that life in Portugal would be better for both me and my immediate family.

With political democracy in decline, voting with our feet is becoming increasingly popular. People all over the world are moving to places they find less oppressive and generally more pleasant than where they grew up. A large number of people are on the move for economic and political reasons.

But moving out is not an option for all. Most people would rather endure hardships hoisted upon them by bad policies than have to move. It's therefore good to know that there is another democratic option that requires nothing but a critical sense of value.

Every time we buy a product or service, we endorse the company or institution that produce this good. If we don't like the values the company or institution promotes, we can simply withhold our money. If you don't like Bud Light's values, don't buy it. If you don't think little boys should be told that they can be girls, don't buy stuff at Target.

This mechanism can be extended towards government institutions as well. I realized many years ago that taxes on cars and real-estate were big drains on my earnings. I therefore sought ways to avoid these taxes, and I saved myself a lot of money in the process.

A focus on value for money is key to a better society. Paying careful attention to the values supported by the institutions we support has the dual benefit of enhancing our own economic situation while at the same time starving those who don't support our values.

Politicians and corporate leaders don't like this, so they will try to fence us in and have us show our ID wherever we go. They will also seek to subsidize companies that suffer from consumer boycotts. Most of all, they want to get control of our consumer habits. Hence their drive towards centralized digital payment systems. However, none of this will work. They cannot in the end force us to endorse values that we don't support.

People voting with their feet

By the Providence Lithograph Company - http://thebiblerevival.com/clipart/1907/ex14.jpg, Public Domain, Link