Friday, April 29, 2022

The 2017-2018 Flu Season

Having found very little evidence of any pandemic in Wikipedia's notable deaths, I've decided to take a closer look at the data to see if I can find anything noteworthy. I'm going through every month, starting with January 2018, and in doing this I've found that February 2018 is a big outlier. Relatively young people were dying at an unusually high rate.

I decided to search for this, and sure enough, the 2017-2018 flu season was the most severe in at least a decade.

Interestingly, Wikipedia's data for the 2020 flu season has many deaths, but nothing indicating that it was very severe for those under 70. By the look of it, 2017-2018 was the really dangerous flu season for the relatively young.

The mask of the beast
The mask of the beast

Thursday, April 28, 2022

The Rich and the Powerful

My stepdaughter brought up an interesting conspiracy theory over lunch today. One of her friends was of the opinion that the richest people in the world are not the ones we think they are. They are not Bill Gates and Elon Musk and the like, but people completely anonymous to us.

To me, this is not really a conspiracy theory. It's a fact that requires little research to validate. I mention this in my book on economics. Once a person is officially without direct possession of anything, that person can hide in plain sight. No-one needs to know how much control remains with him.

This is how I've arranged things for myself. I've passed all my registered wealth onto my children. That was sufficient to reduce my tax burden to zero, and it happened without my children being much burdened with any additional taxation.

The trick is to separate ownership from control. Ownership is registered and taxed. Control can be secret or indirect. It can't be taxed in the way that ownership can be taxed. It allows for more freedom, partly due to the fact that the rich stay anonymous.

We may know that the guy in the big house up the road is rich. But we don't know how rich he is. Hence, we assume him to be wealthy but otherwise normal. He may in fact control vast amounts of wealth through foundations and proxies of various kinds, but we'll never know, and he can therefore go about his daily affairs without any bother from anyone.

True power and wealth is often hidden through the establishment of proxies, like foundations and common ownership arrangements. This remains obscure and overlooked as long as things are running smoothly for the Status Quo. However, when there's a hick-up, we get a glimpse into this obscurity. We get to see the power of the truly wealthy, and we may get a taste of this relatively soon, because there's a loose canon roaming around on deck.

Elon Musk is a bit of a clown. He's one of the establishment guys, afforded special privileges. He's role is to play the techno wizard in the charade that passes as free market. However, he's too full of himself for his own good. He thinks he can do as he pleases, so he says things that don't ring well with the established narrative. His latest stunt has been to buy Twitter, and a lot of people with power are worried that this will lead to too much free speech.

The big guys have to rain in Musk, or stop him from succeeding in taking control of Twitter. Suddenly, Musk is in the cross hairs for SEC violations. He's being dragged through the mud by media outlets. Most telling is the sudden plunge in the price of Tesla.

The value of Tesla is crucial for Musk's plan. His bid for Twitter is based on it, so if Tesla falls below a certain price, the deal falls apart. It's therefore likely that Tesla is falling in price precisely because Musk made a bid for Twitter.

The Status Quo is out in force, and may even engineer a stock market crash in order to stop Musk from taking control of Twitter.

My guess is that Twitter will either remain remarkably unchanged after a Musk takeover, or magically escape his bid due to a crash in Tesla, and possibly the entire stock market. However, if none of this happens, and Twitter becomes a beacon of free speech after a successful Musk takeover, it may be that he really is one of the richest people alive, and that the existence of a shadow government made up of anonymous super-rich people is nothing but a conspiracy theory after all.

Elon Musk Royal Society (crop1).jpg
Elon Musk

By Duncan.Hull - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Culture Revealed by the Virus

Culture is hard to pin down when it comes to particulars. We know that different nations have different cultures, and that culture can vary within a nation. However, when asked exactly what distinguishes one nation from another, we're often at a loss. We either resort to vague references or we home in on detailed peculiarities.

I might for instance say that the Portuguese are like the Spanish, only less aggressive. This can in turn be explained in terms of history, and how the two nations are organized. Spain is a federation, while Portugal is a single country. Hence, brute force is needed in order to keep Spain together, while appeal to national pride is sufficient to keep the Portuguese from rioting.

Yet, a visitor will not notice much difference between Spain and Portugal. A skeptic may conclude that the whole culture thing is an invention. People are pretty much the same everywhere. Some are bad, but most are good. All that's required to travel the world in safety is to stay away from bad neighborhoods. The rest sorts itself out by being polite and friendly.

In times of peace and prosperity, everywhere is pretty much like everywhere else when it comes to how we interact with our fellow men. However, this changed when the virus scare hit. The difference in response between nations was striking, and often surprising. Who would have thought that even to this day Australia was ruled by prison guards? Or that the gentle anarchists of Europe would end up the most vaccinated?

Scandinavia revealed itself to be more divided than we would have thought, with Sweden taking the extreme other position of Norway. Two countries that are almost identical in most things ended up with wildly different responses.

The competitive nature of Swedish-Norwegian relationships revealed themselves. Norway, being the most conformist of the two nations became obsessed about conformity, driven by a desire to be best in the eyes of the rest of the world. Sweden, being more autonomous and somewhat less conformist, ended up taking the extreme other position in order to demonstrate their independence and pragmatism.

Conformism played a big role in Portugal too, but for different reasons from Norway. The Portuguese are conformist for pragmatic reasons. They do what they are told as long as it's no big deal. Having convinced people that the vaccine is safe and effective, just about everyone went out to get it to have it over and done with.

Conformism in Norway is based on a belief that the majority is always right, and that good must always be preferred over evil. Once everybody were convinced that the vaccine was not only a wise thing, but a good thing as well, a large majority went out to get themselves injected. However, Norway houses many eccentrics and fierce libertarians. It is not as homogenous in culture as Portugal, and Norway ended up with fewer people vaccinated than in Portugal.

The US is another nation that's divided into two cultures. One being conformist and the other being libertarian leaning. But the split is much more noticeable in the US than in Norway, partly because the US is much bigger than Norway, but also because the US has a culture of fierce competition. There's an intense desire to win in every way possible. There's also a desire to subjugate and humiliate opponents. The result of this is a clustering of opposing views, reflected in regional differences and party politics.

Canada doesn't have the same  culture of competition. Conformism is a mix of idealism and pragmatism. A conformist agenda can be pushed far without opposition. But there is a limit to what people accept. Once it's clear that the political elite is merely trying to subjugate dissidents, there's resistance.

Germany and Austria are nations driven by ideals, which also lead to divisions. Austria being the most extreme of the two is known for their tendency to analyze things down to their purest essence. This explains why Austria is home both to extreme collectivism and extreme libertarian thinking. This was in turn reflected in the low participation rate in the vaccination program.

Collectivists, who are always in the majority, especially in government, decided to force their view onto the rest by mandating the vaccine in Austria. It was the only way they would get the anti-vaccine club vaccinated. But it failed because the principled Austrians smelled a rat. The ones who had been against the vaccine became all the more convinced of their moral superiority. Those formerly in favor became less convinced. Many were taken in my the staunch opposition.

As for China, it's becoming increasingly clear that it's a mess, with intolerant totalitarians at the top and submissive peasants itching to revolt, but too afraid to do so. We can safely say that nothing coming from China should be believed on face value.

Pushing things too far in Canada
Pushing things too far in Canada

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Superstitions and Wishful Thinking

My stepdaughter is determined to make a living from acting, film and theatre. As such, she's embarked on something of a campaign where she's making humorous TikTok snippets, finding odd jobs as a model, hanging out with friends in the business, and generally expanding her network as much as possible.

Looking for opportunities
Looking for opportunities

One promising connection is the daughter of the former mayor of Matosinhos. She's the same age as my stepdaughter and endowed with many connections. This industrious and ambitious woman has decided to incorporate my stepdaughter into her plans, and they have spent much time together lately. They've been making plans, called various schools, and set up appointments where they present some of their projects, including a drama course targeted towards high school students.

Matosinhos beach
Matosinhos beach

A meeting was ensured with a school, and the two women were naturally excited. They got together, and planned everything down to the last detail. My daughter was invited to stay the night for good measure. But the next day, something unforeseen happened. The society girl developed a cough and a fever. She felt absolutely horrible, and their meeting with the school was going to happen the next day. What was she to do?

First concern was to check if my stepdaughter was ill as well. They'd been close with each other for 24 hours straight. The chances of my stepdaughter not having caught a whiff of whatever was ailing her was close to nil. But my stepdaughter was feeling fine.

Her second concern was with the planned meeting. Was she to postpone it? After thinking about it for some time, she decided to keep the appointment. She'd don a mask. That would protect everyone in the room from her cough, fever and sniffles.

Magic mask
Magic mask

So the two women showed up at the school. My daughter feeling fine, and her friend a mess, coughing and sneezing. Sweaty and cold, but still able to present a coherent story. The meeting went all right. Dates were agreed upon for a small performance to illustrate what they can deliver. But these dates had to be postponed.

It turns out that my stepdaughter's friend was smitten by the feared virus. She tested herself first thing on returning home, and the test came out positive. My stepdaughter has subsequently tested herself, with a negative result. But with the project owner sick, no meetings of any kind can be legally arranged. She was forced to postpone the agreed upon meetings.

What I find interesting in all of this is how superstitions and wishful thinking played into this story. The society girl could have tested herself right away. But she decided to take the test after the crucial first meeting. To protect everybody, she donned a magic mask. Then, she tests herself after the fact, discovering that she was smitten.

All of this is a jumbled mix of nonsense when seen from a pure medical perspective. But pragmatic issues take precedence in most people's lives. We don't act according to fixed rules, and the propaganda surrounding vaccines, masks and social distancing has made the world open for a whole lot of superstition. These superstitions are in turn used pragmatically to arrange for things that shouldn't be done if one was true to logic and principles of science.

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Aunt Augusta's Gold

Aunt Augusta who died with the virus more than a year ago had no children, and she left no will. Hence, it's up to her nephews and nieces to sort out the inheritance. This takes time. There's a lot of people to coordinate. There's also a lot of possessions to distribute, sell and otherwise manage.

Luckily for my wife, she has an honest and pragmatic cousin who takes care of things. My wife responds dutifully to whatever is asked of her, and her cousin takes care of the formalities in cooperation with a lawyer.

Aunt Augusta was relatively wealthy. She owned some real-estate, which will be auctioned off, and she had some gold jewelry that has been appraised. The gold will be sold to the vendor who did the appraisal unless someone in the family decides to buy it.

With most people these days uninterested in gold, I wasn't surprised to learn that some of my wife's cousins were sad to see the gold disappear out of the family. They assumed that nobody would want to buy it. However, the gold is in fact the best deal in the inheritance, and I've advised my wife to buy it all. The gold isn't going to disappear out of the family. It will become my wife's possession. Instead of cash, my wife will walk away with Aunt Augusta's gold.

In their eagerness to get their hands on cash, my wife's cousins have failed to realize that the appraiser was putting in a bid on the gold. This is at least 30% below what the gold will be sold for in his store. This is easy to confirm by going to a gold smith to look for jewelry of comparative quality. My wife will in this way walk away with 30% more than her cousins if she ends up with all the gold instead of cash.

My wife stands to get about 4% of Aunt Augusta's inheritance. But the gold is about 5% of Augusta's net worth, so my wife will have to chip in with savings of her own. But with a low bid on the gold, it's a good deal.

This situation illustrates the value in having some savings available for this kind of opportunities. People who live constantly on the edge of bankruptcy end up with less than what can be achieved with a little bit of spare cash.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Freedom Day

"A man is no less a slave because he is allowed to choose a new master once in a term of years."

- Lysander Spooner

April 25 is Portugal's day of liberty. This is in memory of April 25, 1974. A small group of military men staged a coup, and much to their own surprise, it succeeded. The story is both cute and humorous, illustrating that the world does at times come up with some crazy surprises.

The Fascist government was overthrown, and a democratic republic came in its place. However, much of the old regime remained. Bureaucrats who had worked for Fascism, were now working for democracy. The same people, the same institutions, and pretty much the same laws. Only difference was that people no longer lived under dictatorship. Democracy allowed them to choose their new masters.

Election MG 3455.JPG
Choosing a new master

By Rama - Own work, CC BY-SA 2.0 fr, Link

This modest change in the way society was organized put an end to colonial wars. It opened Portugal up to more foreign trade and investments. All sorts of things changed for the better, including EU membership, with access to subsidies. There was a marked improvement in people's lives. However, people aren't all that much more free now than they were. That's abundantly clear after two years of virus hysteria.

But this doesn't stop people from celebrating. People sing songs, and listen to old speeches. Asked why they are so happy, they tell us that it's because they are free. The fact that they're hardly free at all doesn't seem to interfere with their festive moods. The illusion of freedom is for most people all that's required.

This odd disconnect between reality and what people say is not unique to Portugal. I noticed this behavior in Norway even as a kid. People would celebrate May 17 with a passion. But what exactly were these people so happy about? They would tell me that it was independence as a nation. It's about freedom. Self determination. All these words and phrases were thrown about in speeches and songs, with little to no bearing on reality.

My favorite way to celebrate anything is to take life easy and relax, and that has been true all my life. So why was I forced to get up extra early on May 17, and go in a huge parade where I was forced to sing along with everybody else? How is this a celebration freedom?

Oslo 17 mai 2010.jpg
Oslo May 17 2010

By evelinagustafsson@live.se - Own work, Public Domain, Link

Truth is that none of this has much to do with freedom. It's romanticism of the worst sort. Ideals are reduced to words, and we're going about celebrating these words as if they are the real thing. Some people seem to derive real pleasures from this type of platitudes. But I never saw the charm in it. However, I'm not grumpily refusing to partake in the fun. I've just made it a rule for myself to celebrate freedom by doing exactly what I like to do.

I stopped going to the parades in Norway long before I left that country. I would show up for the games, ice-creams and hot dogs in the afternoon. I would be with friends in the evening. We'd barbeque and celebrate spring.

Freedom is about community and simple pleasures. It has nothing to do with the nation state, the constitution or revolutions. That's all history and pretense. The only thing that matters is that we're free to do exactly what we want to do, and there's no other honest way to celebrate freedom than to do exactly that.

Quick Wins and Lasting Wins

Putin is looking frail these days. The war in Ukraine is dragging on. The West is ganging up on him, and it's easy to understand that paranoia may have gotten the better of him. However, none of this means that the Russians are losing the war.

Getting rid of Putin isn't going to change anything on the ground. Russia has a strategic interest in eastern Ukraine, and this will remain true no matter who's in charge in Kremlin. Even the unlikely replacement of Putin with a Western puppet won't change this, because the strategic interests of Russia go beyond mere party politics.

The West's obsession with party politics make us blind to the fact that national interests go beyond the petty intrigues that go on in the halls of power. We fail to see that the state apparatus is not the most important part of a nation. The state and the nation is not the same thing. Hence, we cannot conquer a nation by simply taking control of the state apparatus.

It's this failure to understand the subordinate importance of the state that has led the West into its current pattern of quick victories followed by humiliating defeats.

Once a nation's capital is conquered, together with all provincial capitals, the West declares victory, only to discover that the nation is in no way defeated. However, it should be obvious that this would happen. Especially to people living in the US.

Imagine an enemy taking control of Washington D.C. and thereby declaring victory over the entire USA. Such an idea is ridiculous. Nobody in Nebraska will consider themselves conquered just because old Joe has been replaced by Jack. Even if Nebraska's capital, Lincoln, was captured and its governor replaced, most people in Nebraska would keep on doing things their own way. The average Nebraskan would be pretty much unaffected by the change of regime. If the new regime makes a nuisance, people will feel free to take pot shots at the hot shots, and this will continue until the new regime becomes more like the original regime.

This is exactly what's been happening in places like Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. These places were swiftly conquered and then lost. Nothing much was achieved.

The only way to turn a swift victory into a lasting one is if there's an inherent interest in the captured nation to become more like the conquering nation. Japan became Westernized after the second world war because Japanese people have a fascination with the West that dates back 500 years. However, hardly anyone in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya is interested in becoming Westernized.

As for Russia and Ukraine, a swift victory against Kiev would have made things easier for the Russians. If they had taken it early on, as they tried, they could have negotiated a ceasefire, and gotten the eastern provinces handed to them. However, this failed.

The Russians are going for plan B, which means that they will secure the current front line as best they can, and wait things out until the newly gained territories become de facto Russian.

The Russians failed in their attempt at a quick win. However, they are likely to secure a lasting win, because eastern Ukraine houses a lot of Russians who see the invaders as liberators. If the Russians manage to keep things reasonably peaceful in the occupied territories, they will win because people there want them to win.

Vladimir Putin (2018-03-01) 03 (cropped).jpg
Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Modern Day Superstitions

Walking home from the park with my son the other day, we came across an old woman clutching a crucifix in her hand. She looked frail and scared. My guess is that she got up that morning feeling less than well, and decided to take her crucifix with her for her walk to the neighborhood store.

To make her feel even safer she was wearing a mask. She was not only calling on God for protection, she was relying on Science as well.

Mask of the beast
Mask of the beast

Saturday, April 23, 2022

Photographs, Motion and Time

I brought up the subject of time and motion with my ten year old son the other day. When asked if time would stop if all motion everywhere stopped, he replied that such a situation would be like a photograph.

There's no time in a photograph. A photograph may fade and crumble, but the image as such is static. The only reason it changes is that things keep on moving in the world we live in. Chemical processes continue. Photons zip across space. Everything is in motion. But should all of this stop, we too would become like a photograph. There would be no changes of any kind.

However, if so much as one thing started moving, the enchantment would be broken. Once there's motion, time starts up again. Things that aren't moving have merely stopped moving. They are not without time.

Some may object to this and say that time continues even when all things have stopped. However, this would require some sort of meta-verse clock that keeps on ticking when all things in the universe have stopped. Time would have to be something that exists outside of the universe, and to introduce such a concept is to introduce mysticism.

To illustrate this, let us for a moment consider time to be a meta-verse thing. Would we be able to detect a situation where everything stopped in the universe, but time continued to flow in the meta-verse?

The answer is no. Even if the universe was stopped for eons according to the meta-verse clock. Things would simply revert to normal once we let things start moving again. No-one in the universe would be able to detect the meta-verse glitch. It might as well not have happened. The existence or non-existence of a meta-verse clock is irrelevant to our perception of the universe. 

The only way we ever detect time is through motion. Hence, time is relative motion. There's no other way to detect it. We measure it relative to something else. We look for things that move at a steady pace, and we use these as clocks. Should all things stop so that there's no motion and no change of any kind, time ceases to exist, and it will only reappear once motion starts up again.

Wecker mit Radium.jpg
Clock

Friday, April 22, 2022

Quantum Entanglement Through a Tube of Nothing

Quantum entanglement is one of the weirdest phenomena in physics. The way it works is that two particles that have been in close contact with each other can continue to communicate even after they have been separated from each other by a considerable distance. Furthermore, the communication is faster than the speed of light. Measurements indicate that it's instantaneous.

The explanation I've proposed for this is that space contains tiny gaps through which communication can be maintained in this way. The gaps are not merely empty, they are without any properties whatsoever. If space is quantized into tiny units, such gaps would be everywhere, but too small to let any particles pass through them. However, any texture on particles will be able to poke into such gaps.

One way of looking at this is to imagine that we have a tube of nothing. Such a tube will have an extent in space. But there will be nothing in it; not even empty space. If we stick something into the tube on one side, it sticks out on the other side, no matter how long the tube is, because the inside of the tube is without extent. If this something gets entangled with something on the other side of the tube, we have communication through the tube of nothing.

Quantum entanglement through a tube of nothing
Quantum entanglement through a tube of nothing

Once two particles are entangled, they can stay connected through gaps in space, and we have what we refer to as quantum entanglement.

The above illustration was made by my ten year old son who had no problem grasping this concept, which proves that we have in my physics a simple explanation for this strange and exotic phenomenon.

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Photons and Time

It's well know that physical processes slow down at high speeds, and I propose an explanation for this in my chapter on kinetics. The faster something moves, the harder it is to transfer energy to it. When we approach the speed of light, it's virtually impossible to transfer energy onto the speeding object, and the consequence of this is that all physical processes slow down. Time grinds to a halt.

The reason for this is that the transfer of energy onto objects of inertial matter involves the aether. Particles in the aether communicate energy from one object to another. However, this can only happen when objects travel slower than the particles in the aether.

These particles are photons and neutrinos that move at the speed of light. Hence, no energy can be passed onto objects that reach this speed.

Energy transfers slow down for speeding objects
Energy transfers slow down for speeding objects

This is analogous to us trying to push energy onto a moving cart. We can only do this as long as the cart moves slower than us. Once the cart reaches a speed close to our own speed, it becomes time consuming and difficult to transfer more energy onto it. Should the cart reach our own speed, energy transfers become impossible.

However, it's incorrect to say that time stops at the speed of light, because no time implies no change. If time stopped at the speed of light, photons would be incapable of change. However, photons are characterized by their ability to change. They carry energy from one place to another. They can also change their polarity and direction.

Photon transferring energy onto a Neon atom
Photon transferring energy onto a Neon atom

This poses a paradox. Time grinds to a halt for objects that approach the speed of light, yet this does not stop photons from changing in all sorts of ways even though they travel at the speed of light.

The key to unraveling this paradox is to keep in mind that time is an abstraction. Time is relative motion, and it can only be measured relative to inertial matter. When we say that time grinds to a halt when an object approaches the speed of light, we're referring to energy transfers onto inertial matter. We're talking about inertia.

But photons are not inertial. In contrast to inertial matter which require the help of the aether to change energy, photons require no help. Each photon is a self contained package of particle and pilot wave. Photons carry their own energy transferring mechanism with them.

Photon traversing a transparent medium
Photon traversing a transparent medium

Photons, wrapped in their pilot waves, change through direct contact. This is unaffected by the fact that they move at the speed of light.

Without inertia, all changes are merely a matter of speed. Hence, photons change at the speed of light. However, with inertia, all changes are relative to the speed of particles in the aether. The closer we get to the speed of light, the slower things change, and this explains why time grinds to a halt for inertial matter at high speeds, but not for photons even thought they travel at the speed of light.

This demonstrates once again that time is a concept tied to inertia, and that time becomes a meaningless concept when applied directly to photons without any reference to something inertial like a clock or a ruler.

Sunday, April 17, 2022

Safety in Numbers

I've been careful about pointing out the obvious lately, thinking I might needlessly hurt people's feelings by being blunt. People have taken the vaccine, and there's no point in highlighting the dangers they've put themselves in. However, with the majority of people having taken the vaccine, there's a psychological aspect that softens the impact of blunt honesty. People are convinced that they are safe because so many other people have taken the vaccine. Whatever honest and blunt observations that come from the unvaccinated is therefore cushioned by the warm fuzzy feeling of being in the majority.

This means that we can be rather brutal in our honesty without worrying about upsetting the vaccinated so much that they will shun us. They will register our observations as quaint anecdotal facts without bearing on themselves specifically. The majority is always right. There's safety in numbers. Nothing bad will affect them. It's the other fishes in the school that are being eaten by side effects. They themselves are safe.

Being already in the majority, the vaccinated have become noticeably less militant. There's no peer pressure. The vaccine is no longer the topic of conversation. It's yesteryear's news. However, this is no reason to relax our resistance to it. The next push to get everybody vaccinated will be based on the false presumption that the vaccine is harmless. Everybody's vaccinated, and we might as well make it mandatory for all.

But there's also a growing awareness that the vaccine is doing some harm to the school. Some fishes are disappearing for no good reason. Something is amiss, and this is the sentiment we need to keep alive.

My plan is therefore to highlight uncanny events, such as what happened at Miami Open. I will also highlight the numbers I'm getting from Notable Deaths, and I'll start using my list of public figures. I will wear my Don't do Drugs T-shirt through the summer.

None of this will upset those comfortable in their belief that no harm can touch them because they are in the majority. However, it will make them reluctant to continue with a regime of boosters. They will also be less likely to support mandates.

Boris the butterfly
Boris the butterfly

Disappointed

I had high hopes for the Portuguese when it came to the vaccine. They are the gentle anarchists of Europe, and I thought that their tendency to skirt rules and do whatever makes sense would save them from going en masse to the vaccination centers. However, I was wrong. Portugal has the highest vaccination rate in Europe, with a whopping 91% of the adult population vaccinated.

So where did I go wrong in my analysis? How is it that so many Portuguese went along with the nonsense?

My guess is that it has to do with two factors. One being the high confidence the Portuguese have in pharmaceuticals. They're not only anarchists, they are impatient when it comes to any kind of illness or discomfort. They're off to the chemist at the first sign of a fever or sore back.

The other reason is that their approach to authority is to let them have their way as long as it doesn't meaningfully interfere in their lives. If the authorities put up a hurdle that's easy to pass, they jump it without any fuss. The constant talk of the vaccine as both safe and effective made the population think that this was just another low hurdle to jump rather than fight.

The social contract
The social contract

Friday, April 15, 2022

Resurrection

Easter Sunday is coming up, and it's once again time to remind people about the Easter of 2020, when Boris Johnson returned from death's door due to the miracle of modern medicine. Without it, he would have been dead. Those are his own words.

This is why I will post this YouTube video on my Facebook wall on Sunday, accompanied by the three hashtags, #Resurrection #Miracle #Science

For clarity, I will add the following:

"Never forget! The age of miracles is not yet over. It normally takes weeks to recover from an illness so severe that oxygen treatment is needed. Yet Boris was able to hold this speech only days after he was discharged on Easter Sunday 2020."

It could be added that not a single journalist found it odd that Boris was as fit as he appeared to be in the video. No-one seemed to doubt the miracle that had occurred.

portrait photograph of a 55-year-old Johnson
Boris Johnson

By Ben Shread / Cabinet Office, OGL 3, Link

Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Trouble in Shanghai

Shanghai is under lockdown. The consequence of this is that global supply chains are under stress, which illustrates once again that China is able to turn supply chains on and off at will with the convenient excuse of fighting a virus.

The target of this disruption is the West which has made itself dependent on Chinese products. China sees the West as weak in its fight against Russia, and aims to further weaken it by wrecking havoc in the economy.

Not only is the West being starved of essential raw materials coming from Russia, it's being shut off from essential supply chains coming from China. The result will be devastating, with shortages in all sort of things from essential raw materials to finished products.

However, there's more to this story than this. Shanghai has been targeted for a reason, and this reason reveals a weakness in China. Due to its unique history, Shanghai is something of an oddity within China. It has a different culture from the surrounding countryside. It's also different from other Chinese cities. People in Shanghai don't all see themselves as primarily Chinese. Many think of themselves as Shanghailanders.

Shanghai is not as conformist as the Chinese leadership would like. Shanghailanders value freedom higher than the typical Chinese, and the lockdowns are intended to break this independent minded spirit.

The lockdowns serve two purposes. It disrupts trade with the West, and makes life hard for independent minded Shanghailanders. However, this has the potential to blow up Chinese society as well. The Chinese leadership is playing with fire.

If Shanghai revolts, Hong Kong is likely to do the same, and any invasion of Taiwan will have to be postponed. What we're seeing is not only China at war with the West, but China at war with itself, and there's no telling how this may pan out in the end.

It's not a given that the current Chinese leadership will come out victorious. China has a long history of stability interspersed with great instability, and it looks like China is once again moving towards instability. It's not inconceivable that the Communist era is about to end and that it will be Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan that will define the future of China.

Head shot of Xi Jinping in 2019. He is wearing a black suit jacket, white shirt and a blue necktie.
Xi Jinping

By Palácio do Planalto - https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/47945730807/, CC BY 2.0, Link

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Dealing with Hyperbole

Hyperbole is generally viewed as a bad thing because it's a distortion of the truth, intentionally made to cause alarm or some other strong emotional response. However, I find it often useful for myself in that it can provide a counterbalance to constant propaganda.

Vaccine Deaths dot Com is an example of this. At the height of the virus scare, it was refreshing to look through its headlines to find support for my skepticism. Hyperbole has in this way saved me from being swayed by propaganda and peer pressure. When my wife declared that she would take the vaccine, I put my foot down, and she changed her mind.

This goes to prove that good things sometimes come from hyperbole. But that doesn't mean that hyperbole must be considered true. The right way to look at it is as just another form of propaganda. In the case of anti-vaccine hyperbole, it serves as a counterweight to the official narrative. In the case of climate alarmism, it serves as a spearhead for draconian measures.

Hyperbole is something we seek for comfort. It's there to attract the believers and repel the disbelievers. However, it's not necessarily void of any truth. It's not always mere story telling. Some of the stories are based on truths that can be verified.

For instance, Vaccine Deaths dot Com has a headline making the claim that everyone who got vaccinated will be dead by 2025. That's hyperbole. But there's nevertheless some truth to the scare. We are seeing an uptick in deaths among relatively young people, and this started in 2021, the year of the vaccine rollout.

Checking notable deaths for the current month, we see that 25% of them are younger than 70 years of age. That's a four percentage point increase from 21% which was the stable average up until year 2021. That represents a 20% increase in mortality rate in the relatively young.

This shows that the hyperbole is not entirely without substance. We are seeing an increase in deaths among the young and healthy, and this will become a problem if it persists. That's not to say that every vaccinated person will be dead by 2025. But a substantial number will see their lives cut short.

The mask of the beast
The mask of the beast

Monday, April 11, 2022

The Whiplash Effect

The last two years have seen some crazy moves in various markets. When the virus scare took center stage back in early 2020, prices of everything went down, as one would expect. With everybody locked down, the implications for the economy should be obvious.

But then everything changed. Prices of all things financial went up. It was as if the markets had decided that lockdowns were good for the economy. Gold topped out in 2020. But everything else continued up. The markets behaved as if we were in some kind of glorious industrial revolution.

Monthly gold chart
Monthly gold chart

Prices of used carts, which had plummeted at the start of the scare went way up, followed by trucks and real-estate. However, these markets are now again under pressure. Gold, which has stalled for over a year, is again on the rise.

It all looks very odd if we focus solely on the price moves. However, once we factor in central bank meddling in the economy, we see what's going on.

With the virus scare and lock downs as their excuse, central banks went all in on their money printing schemes, and this money went into the hands of well connected billionaires. The super rich became a lot richer. Their access to cheep credit allowed them to buy assets from desperate middle class families who had seen their livelihoods destroyed by health experts. The sheer momentum of this move propelled financial markets to new all time highs. This signaled an all clear to others who started to buy capital goods like cars, trucks and real-estate.

The money printed in 2020 went first to billionaires who bought everything financial. It progressed from there into capital goods, and we are now entering a point where it's in the hands of ordinary people who use it to bid up prices on everyday goods and services. The price inflation in food and rent that we're seeing is the predictable consequence of central bank intervention in 2020.

The negative effect of price inflation is now starting to work its way through the economy. People have to sell real-estate and newly acquired capital goods like cars and truck in order to cover increased costs. The boom in transportation is coming to an end, with people forced to reduce their consumption due to soaring prices. A crash in financial markets looks imminent.

Central banks succeeded in postponing by two years the crash that was about to happen in 2020. However, they also made things much worse. Wealth inequalities are greater. Ordinary people who would have benefitted from a fall in prices back in 2020 are now broke. They will be unable to take advantage of the coming crash. They may even have invested in real-estate and capital goods right at the peak, thinking that things were bound to go even higher.

What we have seen over the past two years is an example of the whiplash effect I mention in my book on investing that I wrote back in 2018. I wrote the book mostly for my own sake, thinking I need a plan to deal with the storms I saw brewing on the horizon. Now that the storm has arrived, I'm glad I was prepared. I've stuck resolutely with gold and cash, and I've drained my cash reserves in favor of gold when faced with a need to use my savings. The result of this is that I've weathered the storm well so far, and I stand to gain in the likely event that gold will go a lot higher over the next few years.

Weathering the storm
Weathering the storm

Friday, April 8, 2022

My Tao - Sitting There, Doing Nothing

I came to the early realization in life that inactivity is greatly underappreciated, and I have since come across numerous examples that confirm this. Most horror stories about great losses involve high levels of activity. Inactivity would have saved a lot of people a lot of money, headaches and worry.

In my career as a software engineer, I can only think of a handful of projects that made much sense. I'm unsure to this day if my career was a net benefit or loss to society as a whole. I made some money for myself. But I know that a lot of projects were a waste of time, and the benefits that came from the projects that made some sense may not have covered the losses.

As for the money I made, much of it was lost to the taxman and wasted on bad investments. So little money was kept by me in the end that I was no better off when I was in full employment than I am now, ten years into an early retirement.

The idea that inactivity may be more profitable than activity is so contrary to Western culture that few appreciate the logic of it. However, the truth of the matter is evident everywhere, including financial markets. There's a thing that we can buy and hold that does nothing, yet makes a profit relative to many other things that we might have chosen instead.

That thing is gold. It's despised for the fact that it just sits there. It produces nothing. It employs nobody. It's a cold piece of metal. However, relative to a large number of investment choices, gold has done very well. In fact, it's up relative to the S&P 500 when measured from year 2000. That means that gold has done better than most alternatives.

This tells us that it isn't just I who feel that I haven't contributed much to society through my career. Most careers result in losses for investors when measured against gold. Inactivity would have been the better choice.

Another way of looking at this is that most businesses are engaging in value destruction. The only reason this isn't more apparent is that we no longer measure wealth creation relative to gold. We measure it against fiat currencies which are deliberately debased in order to create the illusion of wealth creation. However, the truth will reveal itself at some point. When pensions come due in the future, the payouts in terms of purchasing power will be much less than what was paid into the schemes.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Fear is the Mind Killer

I came across two posts related to fear on my Facebook wall this morning, and I took the opportunity to comment on both of them. Fear is the mind killer, I commented on one. People do some really stupid things when pressured by idiots, I said on the other. The connection to what's been happening over the last couple of years should be obvious.

What's interesting is the way people are starting to talk in general terms about what's been going on. No-one is any longer interested in whether the vaccine is deadly or not. That discussion is long since dead. What's being talked about now is the way people reacted to the never ending stream of fear that was projected at us. How group-think took a hold of even the smartest among us, and how there was a collective stupor that turned otherwise smart people into blabbering idiots.

This new focus is a great for our continued fight for liberty, because it discusses the deeper significance of what's been going on. People are starting to wake up. They are starting to question the narrative. We're no longer discussing the numbers and the fact presented, but rather the way they have been presented. We're questioning the sanity of our supposedly well educated elite.

I know a few medical doctors who refuse to remove their masks in public. That's to me a sure sign of idiocy, and a reason to never take any advice from them. Politicians have reveled the power that all the fear-mongering gave them. Journalists were eagerly spinning the virus into a deadly disease, when in reality it was nothing more than a flu. This is now all being exposed.

It's hard to attack people in authority positions head on. However, talking in general terms about fear and the dangers of group-think is not a direct attack on anyone. Nobody can claim to be directly attacked by such discussions. Yet, everyone knows what's actually being talked about.

The stupidity and the evil that has been so carefully concocted over the past two years is being exposed, and there's nothing Facebook censors and other complicity theorists can do to stop it.

Facebook f logo (2019).svg

By Facebook, Inc. - http://en.facebookbrand.com, Public Domain, Link

Autonomy and Sovereignty in Ukraine

The first casualty of war is truth. So goes the saying. However, if we look broadly at any war, we can still figure out more or less what's going on. From this, we can make predictions. We can even make recommendations.

Taking Ukraine as an example, we see that Russian advancement has stalled. An early push to take Kiev failed. With no willingness in the West to see a quick end to the war, and with Ukraine's politicians determined to continue, we're unlikely to see a quick resolution to the conflict.

Looking closer at what's going on, we see that Russian forces have control of regions where people of Russian origin reside. The front line coincides with a cultural border. If Russia's only goal was to secure control of Russian dominated areas, they could have declared partial victory at this point. What remains is a mop up of resistance here and there, and further control of the front line.

However, Russia wants more. They want an end to the current regime in Kiev, and a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. They want an end to any bio-weapon developments currently going on in Ukraine, and they want Ukraine to remain free of nuclear weapons. To achieve these goals, Russia will have to defeat the Ukraine army, something that looks increasingly unlikely.

My guess is therefore that Russia will either resume an all out attack on Kiev relatively soon, or switch to a long term plan in which eastern Ukraine ends up as part of Russia.

While the success of a short and intense military push depends on factors we're unable to judge from our sofas, the success of a long term plan of cultural inclusion is determined by factors that we can judge. The first and foremost being general popularity in the local community.

If it's true that Ukraine Nazis have operated without restrictions in the east of Ukraine, Russians are most likely viewed as true liberators by the locals. A systematic clean up of local governments should be possible. Local institutions could be made into entrenched pro-Russian hold outs. Police could be empowered to arrest people suspected of anti-Russian activities.

However, Russia must be careful not to go overboard when it comes to rooting out anti-Russian elements. They mustn't become so oppressive that local Ukrainians start joining underground movements. There has to be a sense among everyone that the Russian army is operating under a fair system of law that treats local Ukrainians on par with local Russians.

Russia should also ensure that there's room for optimism among all locals. Eastern Ukraine should be perceived as being a better place to live than the rest of Ukraine, and one way to do this is to scale back taxation and government bureaucracy. If the Russians install liberal rules on trade and commerce, the difference between eastern Ukraine and the rest of the region will become noticeable within a year or two.

Local support is always key in the long run, as we have seen with the many wars waged by the West over the past decades. A quick victory means nothing if local resistance to cultural change is strong. The system at the local level is always a reflection of culture. Hence, Russia can only hold eastern parts of Ukraine without great cost. The rest of Ukraine will never become an integral part of Russia. But the eastern part can be integrated, and with little cost if done properly.

A dramatic wind down in military activity at this point may be the best long term move for the Russians. The less offensive fighting is done by the Russian army, the less they will look like the bad guys. If local government is empowered to clean out remaining resistance in the occupied areas, it will look all the more like things are returning to normal.

When entrenched in an area that's culturally aligned with the occupying army, time works to the advantage of the occupiers. They become accepted. They may even become well liked. That never happens when there's a cultural mismatch. No matter how well intended the occupiers may be, the result is always failure.

My guess is that Putin will end up winning this war. A few years down the line, the current front line will become the de facto border between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how contested it may be in the eyes of the West.

Vladimir Putin (2018-03-01) 03 (cropped).jpg
Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link

Thursday, April 7, 2022

Preparing for Winter

The war in Ukraine is a convenient distraction from the push to have us all vaccinated. There's suddenly little talk about vaccines and mandates. However, politicians are still pushing for their desired dystopia, and we will almost certainly see more virus hysteria after summer.

My guess is that politicians will push for more mandates based on the generally accepted idea that this is for the better. The vaccines are not so poisonous that everybody can see how dangerous they are without guidance. There's also the problem that many are unwilling to see what's happening. They have fallen for the scam and are reluctant and afraid to face the truth. People will rather accept that which is false; namely the idea that the vaccines are safe and effective.

The distraction from Ukraine combines with the false acceptance of the vaccine as relatively harmless. Come winter, many will take the boosters. There will also be a number of first time shots. A few years down the line, annual shots from cradle to grave will be accepted as normal. That's the game plan. However, I don't think this will happen because we have nature, aka God, on our side, and that's a powerful force. Used correctly, we'll sail through next winter as unscathed as we did this winter.

First thing to do is to further secure our financial independence from the state. Welfare programs and pensions will almost certainly be tied to vaccine status. Even private pension funds may find themselves forced to deny payouts to the unvaccinated. We must therefore pool our savings into that which cannot easily be blocked or confiscated. Gold, land, real-estate and productive capital are safer than bank deposits and pensions. Paper assets are increasingly dangerous.

As for propaganda, we must continue our subversive campaigns, and I think we may find much potential in commenting on the various sports events that are taking place through the summer. I noticed as early as a year ago that vaccinated sportsmen had a sad tendency to become ill. This became all the more evident six months later, with soccer players dropping to the ground mid-game, clutching their chests.

The latest display of this was in the Miami Open tennis tournament where fifteen players ended up ill. The press is consistently describing these events as mysterious, and there's never any mention of any connection to the vaccine. However, the same press will gladly report on people who are excluded from partaking in tournaments due to their vaccine status. We can therefore provide a service to friends and family by joining the dots.

For instance, Novak Djokovic, who was unable to attend Miami Open due to his vaccine status, is willing to skip French Open and Wimbledon as well. His exclusion from what is supposedly "open" tournaments is therefore a great lead in for any comments we'd like to make regarding these two events. If Djokovic is excluded from playing tennis, it follows that anyone falling ill at these tournaments are vaccinated. We don't have to explicitly tell anyone that this is the case. We merely make one observation about Djokovic absence, and another observation about players having to give up due to illness.

Something similar can be done for Tour de France. Anyone passionate about bicycling races can comment on the racers who're staying home due to their vaccine status, and then follow this up with comments on the unusual number of ill bicyclists that we'll have this summer.

Key to subversive messages is the subtlety with which they are delivered. The recipients should ideally join the dots themselves. Our job is primarily to lay out the facts in the right order, and if we can do this in a predictive fashion, the message becomes all the more powerful. We know with a high degree of certainty that both Wimbledon and Tour de France will see a high number of sportsmen falling ill. We can therefore plan our messaging ahead of time, and make a coherent story where the dots are so close together that their relationship cannot be ignored.

The unease that people are sensing when it comes to the virus, the vaccines and the mandates need only a gentle reminder from time to time in order to grow and become permanent. We don't need to go overboard. No hyperbole is needed. God is on our side, and there's nothing the propagandists can do to stop truth from revealing itself in news and media.

Great plague of london-1665.jpg
Great plague of London

Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Stewards of the World

My ten year old son isn't very fond of climate alarmists. One of his pet hates are the never ending parade of memes that depict humans as harmful for the environment. The world with humans is depicted as a horrible sewer. A world with no humans, on the other hand, is depicted as an Eden. If we could just hurry up and die, things would be wonderful.

My son has correctly identified climate alarmism as a death cult, and he's not very impressed. Not least because his personal experience is quite the opposite of what the cult claims. We have a vibrant balcony, full of life. We have flowers, and we have insects. We have micro-composts brimming with bugs and worms. None of this would exist without our attention. Without our stewardship, our balcony would be a desert.

By extension, my son understands that farm animals exist only because we tend to them. I've also told him about the forest that I tended back in Norway. It was horribly overgrown, and there was very little bio-diversity as a consequence. There were rodents, and there were mosquitos, but not much beyond that. As for vegetation, it was homogenous as well. One type of trees, two types of bushes and a few types of weeds. That was all.

It wasn't before I cut away the lower branches of trees, cleared away large numbers of bushes, and cut down weeds to let other plants grow that the place became livable. The mosquitos disappeared. Rodents became less plentiful. Birds started nesting. Hares appeared. What had been an overgrown mess, became a meadow with a canopy of green from well trimmed trees. The thicket became a garden.

This proves that human activity has the potential to increase bio-diversity, and the only reason this wouldn't happen spontaneously is if property is unprotected, or concentrated into few hands. With few owners, we get mega farms and mega plantations. Without property being protected by law, we get a rush to take out resources, followed by inactivity. I wouldn't have bothered to clear out the forest had I not known that it would remain with my family.

The importance of strong property rights in protecting bio-diversity is vividly on display on the island of Hispaniola, which is divided into Haiti to the west and the Dominican Republic to the east. The difference can be seen from space.

Haiti deforestation.jpg
Haiti deforestation

By NASA - http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002600/a002640/, Public Domain, Link

Most sources explain the deforestation of Haiti as something related to local differences in culture. Sometimes there's the insinuation that the deforestation is a result of capitalism gone mad. However, the true cause of the disaster can be found by looking up relative strength of property rights in the Caribbean.

The Dominican Republic has much stronger property rights than Haiti. As a consequence, there's been a rush to take out resources from forests in Haiti, without a corresponding rush in the Dominican Republic. With no incentive to plant new forest or let young forest grow, the result has been a desert in Haiti.

This relationship between property rights and bio-diversity is something we see over and over again, yet death cults ranging from communists to climate alarmists refuse to accept this. They don't see the good that human activity does to the environment in the Dominican Republic. They only see the destruction in Haiti, and they blame it on capitalism even though it's the Dominican Republic that's the capitalist nation on the island of Hispaniola.

The planet isn't dying because of human activity. It's messed up due to destructive policies. Insects aren't disappearing because of humans. They are disappearing because composting isn't any longer done at the scales that it used to be done. Mega farms are replacing smaller farms. Chemicals are replacing compost. But all of this is due to bad policies. Remove the bad policies, and everything will become greener and healthier.

Humans are the stewards of the world, and all that's required for bio-diversity to increase is to strengthen property rights everywhere.

Greta Thunberg 01.jpg
Greta Thunberg

Eco-anxiety - By Anders Hellberg - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Two Bizarre Blobs Detected Deep Inside Earth

Studies of seismic data have recently revealed that Earth contains two large structures. One is located under the west coast of Africa. The other is located under the Pacific, at the other side of our planet from the African blob.

There are two main explanations for these blobs. One relates to the hypothetical process known as subduction. The other relates to a hypothetical collision between Earth and the Moon at the start of our planet's existence. Neither of these hypothesis are promoted in my books on physics, so I would like to present an alternative explanation. This one based on the idea that Earth was created much quicker than what is generally believed, and that the driving force for Earth's creation was electrical rather than gravitational.

Keeping in mind that electric currents come as pairs, we can expect electric creation processes to have two parts to them. If planets are formed through rapid contraction of two spiraling blobs of matter, we should see remnants of the leading part of such blobs. The result should have a yin-yang feel to it.

Yin and Yang
Yin and Yang

By Iruka13 - This file was derived from: Urkällan.svg, Public Domain, Link

Most of this will be drawn out and mixed, but the pressure fronts should remain, and that is what the observed blobs may be.

Thanks to Andrew Johnson for making me aware of this new finding.

Sunday, April 3, 2022

Delayed Reactions to Announcements

Russia's decision to link the Ruble to the gold price has been so under-reported that I've been unsure if it really happened. Not even Zerohedge had much mention of the event until this article was published today.

Another puzzling aspect of the event is that nothing much of note has happened in the currency and gold markets since it happened. The Ruble has strengthened, and is back to roughly where it was at the start of the war. But the gold price has been flat, and other currencies have remained steady.

This is astonishing, because the link between the Ruble and gold has the potential to redefine the world's financial order. So why aren't we seeing more talk and more action in the markets?

The reasons for this are multiple. We can mention the relatively small importance of the Ruble in the current financial system. Those who are used to thinking of the Dollar as king, and the Euro, Pound and Yen as it's vassals, don't put much importance to the Ruble. There's also the complexity of global supply chains. It's impossible to judge with certainty what the impact will be of a change in a peripheral currency. It's also impossible to know exactly what everyone else is thinking, and markets operate to a great degree on the assumption that tomorrow will be similar to yesterday.

This is why we often see a delay between an announcement and its impact on markets.

A mathematical riddle known as the green-eyed logic puzzle sheds light on how this works. It turns out that even with everybody acting with perfect logic, certain things require time to be figured out. However, once the puzzle is solved, there's a dramatic change in everybody's behavior. In the case of the green-eyed prisoners, they end up escaping their imprisonment on the exact same day.

The situation we currently have in the financial markets are similar to the starting conditions of the green-eyed logic puzzle. There's been an announcement. Yet, no-one knows how to act because no-one knows the circumstances of everybody else.

The fact that the announcement is coming from a peripheral actor adds to the confusion. There's also the imperfection of human rationality. We're not faced with a clean cut logic problem, but a real world problem. However, this can play to our advantage. There's opportunity in that some will be quicker to figure out the new situation than others. We won't see the sudden switch from one state to another as happens in the purely mathematical case. Instead, we'll see a cascade of events.

My guess is that we will see a series of cracks appear in various markets, and a series of measures taken to adapt, which in turn will lead to stress in more peripheral markets. We may see cracks appear in the European gas markets as early as this week. This will impact the Euro. Gold markets will be affected. Deficit countries will struggle to get imports. Currencies will have to be revaluated. Debt will be inflated away.

The Ruble may be a peripheral currency, but Russia runs a trade surplus. It can therefore greatly upset trade simply by insisting that deficits are made up for in gold, as was the norm back in Cantillon's time. Other surplus countries may follow suit. If so, we'll be on a gold standard no matter how much deficit nations protest.

As always in uncertain times, gold will provide safety, especially in countries where deficit currencies are in use, because those currencies are increasingly likely to hyper-inflate.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Saturday, April 2, 2022

Notable Deaths So Far in 2022

We now have the first quarter numbers of notable deaths, as recorded by Wikipedia. These figures can be compared to deaths for the year 2021 and 2019.

First thing to note is that January 2022 had an unusually high death rate for those over 69 years of age. February had numbers in line with those of 2019, and March came out with an unusually high death rate among people younger than 70.

People younger than 70 accounted for 21% of notable deaths in 2019, against 19% in January 2022, 21% in February 2022 and 23% in March 2022.

The relatively high death rate among the elderly in January may be related to the booster, which was primarily taken by those over 70. My mother in law suffered a heart attack around this time, after taking the booster. Many others may have had similar trouble.

The relatively high death rates among younger people in March seems to be related to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Skimming through the list for March reveals an increase in deaths among Ukrainian politicians and other public figures, sufficiently so to alter the list's overall composition.

Note: I've noticed that Wikipedia adds older people later than younger people, making fresh numbers look worse than they end up being after a few days.

Here are the numbers:


January 2022:

  • 20s = 8 = 0.81%
  • 30s = 12 = 1.21%
  • 40s = 20 = 2.02%
  • 50s = 44 = 4.44%
  • 60s = 104 = 10.48%
  • 70s = 199 = 20.06%
  • 80s = 342 = 34.48%
  • 90s = 231 = 23.29%
  • 100+ = 32 = 3.23%

Total = 992; Younger than 70 = 18.95%

February 2022:

  • 20s = 5 = 0.58%
  • 30s = 10 = 1.15%
  • 40s = 24 = 2.76%
  • 50s = 44 = 5.07%
  • 60s = 101 = 11.64%
  • 70s = 194 = 22.35%
  • 80s = 259 = 29.84%
  • 90s = 202 = 23.27%
  • 100+ = 29 = 3.34%

Total = 868; Younger than 70 = 21.20%

March 2022:

  • 20s = 8 = 1.02%
  • 30s = 14 = 1.79%
  • 40s = 25 = 3.20%
  • 50s = 50 = 6.40%
  • 60s = 85 = 10.88%
  • 70s = 150 = 19.21%
  • 80s = 264 = 33.80%
  • 90s = 170 = 21.77%
  • 100+ = 15 = 1.92%

Total = 781; Younger than 70 = 23.29%

Wikipedia-logo-v2.svg
Wikipedia

CC BY-SA 3.0Link