About Those Delta Deaths

Early numbers out of England indicated that the Delta variant is far more deadly in vaccinated people than unvaccinated people. However, the number of cases in the two groups cannot be reliably compared because of the difference in testing between vaccinated and unvaccinated. Only vaccinated people who are already quite sick get tested while unvaccinated get tested all the time, even if perfectly healthy.

A more reliable measure is found by comparing the total population of vaccinated and unvaccinated. But even then, we get that Delta is more deadly among the vaccinated. Less than half of England's population was fully vaccinated during the early study, yet more than half of all Delta deaths occurred in vaccinated patients. However, more recent figures tell a different story. Suddenly, it's the unvaccinated that are dying in greater numbers.

But there's a catch. The total number of deaths are not going up together with number of cases, so what's going on?

My guess is that deaths among vaccinated people are being reported differently from deaths among the unvaccinated. Unvaccinated people are noted down as dead from Delta if they die with Delta. But vaccinated people are noted down as dead from Delta only if they die from the disease. If a vaccinated patient suffered from any other condition, that other condition becomes the cause of death.

If this is the case, then we can conclude that Delta is a disease that hits the vaccinated more than the unvaccinated. The flat death rates indicate that unvaccinated people are mostly spared, while the increase in total cases indicate that many get sick. The many sick cannot be unvaccinated because that would have led to an increase in deaths. Therefore, the sick are mostly vaccinated, and more ill than reported.

That would make the vaccine passports that are currently rolled out in Europe under the name of "health certificates" proof of inferior health. Anyone carrying such a certificate runs a higher risk of serious illness and death than those who are prevented from getting them. 

Delta

By Dcoetzee, F l a n k e r - Own work, Public Domain, Link