Trouble in Shanghai

Shanghai is under lockdown. The consequence of this is that global supply chains are under stress, which illustrates once again that China is able to turn supply chains on and off at will with the convenient excuse of fighting a virus.

The target of this disruption is the West which has made itself dependent on Chinese products. China sees the West as weak in its fight against Russia, and aims to further weaken it by wrecking havoc in the economy.

Not only is the West being starved of essential raw materials coming from Russia, it's being shut off from essential supply chains coming from China. The result will be devastating, with shortages in all sort of things from essential raw materials to finished products.

However, there's more to this story than this. Shanghai has been targeted for a reason, and this reason reveals a weakness in China. Due to its unique history, Shanghai is something of an oddity within China. It has a different culture from the surrounding countryside. It's also different from other Chinese cities. People in Shanghai don't all see themselves as primarily Chinese. Many think of themselves as Shanghailanders.

Shanghai is not as conformist as the Chinese leadership would like. Shanghailanders value freedom higher than the typical Chinese, and the lockdowns are intended to break this independent minded spirit.

The lockdowns serve two purposes. It disrupts trade with the West, and makes life hard for independent minded Shanghailanders. However, this has the potential to blow up Chinese society as well. The Chinese leadership is playing with fire.

If Shanghai revolts, Hong Kong is likely to do the same, and any invasion of Taiwan will have to be postponed. What we're seeing is not only China at war with the West, but China at war with itself, and there's no telling how this may pan out in the end.

It's not a given that the current Chinese leadership will come out victorious. China has a long history of stability interspersed with great instability, and it looks like China is once again moving towards instability. It's not inconceivable that the Communist era is about to end and that it will be Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan that will define the future of China.

Xi Jinping

By Palácio do Planalto - https://www.flickr.com/photos/palaciodoplanalto/47945730807/, CC BY 2.0, Link