Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Pilot Wave Theory

In my little book on physics, The Velcro Universe, I suggest a solution to the double slit experiment in which particles disturb an ether as they move through space. This disturbance accompanies the particles, and cause them to interfere with each other and themselves.

As it happens, this is not as novel an idea as I thought when I wrote the chapter on the double slit experiment. A similar solution was proposed as early as 1927 by Louis de Broglie. He suggested that a pilot wave accompanied all particles.

ExperimentCouder-Young.png

By Krauss - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

The main difference between de Broglie's Pilot Wave Theory and the mechanism outlined in The Velcro Universe is that de Broglie never gives an explanation as to what the pilot wave consists of. Instead, he invokes a mysterious Hidden Variable Theory.

It is still unclear to me why the early quantum physics theorists were so opposed to invoking an ether when it would have solved so many of their problems.

History of the Nigard Glacier

Nigard was a farm situated in a valley in west Norway. Farther up the valley, there was a lake, and farther still, a relatively small glacier, a side arm of the Jostedal Glacier high in the mountains to the east of the farm.

This is how things were during the Medieval Warm Period.

But then things changed. With the onset of the Little Ice Age, the Jostedal Glacier started to put on weight. Its side arms started to move out to the sides.

What had been a relatively small glacier, far away from Nigard, grew in size and extent. It pushed down to the lake. It crossed the lake, It pushed on beyond the lake. By 1650, some 400 years after the onset of the Little Ice Age, it had reached Nigard.

The expansion, which had been slow and gradual to start with, had by then become alarmingly rapid.

By the time the expansion finally stopped a hundred years later, Nigard and all its land was gone. It had been completely consumed by ice.



Historic extent of the Nigard Glacier
Illustrasjon: Bjørn Vold

By 1850, a mere 100 years after the Nigard glacier reached its maximum extent, half of it, by volume, had melted away. By 1930, its volume was cut in half again. Fast forward another 90 years, and we're back to where we were right after the onset of the Little Ice Age.

What's interesting to note from a climate perspective is that the greatest reduction of ice, by volume, happened from 1750 to 1850. What is happening today, where the remaining bits of the Jostedal side arms are melting away, is in no way as dramatic as what happened during the first hundred years of glacial retreat.

Furthermore, it is impossible to read into this any correlation to human activity. The Nigard glacier came and went, long before the CO2 content in our atmosphere made its jump from 0.03% to the current level of about 0.04%.

The exponential increase in CO2 content happened after 1930, when the Nigard Glacier was already less than a quarter of what it once had been.

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Disingenuous About the Scandinavian Ice Sheet

Looking up the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in the Encyclopædia Britannica, we find a story that is quite misleading as to the nature of large ice sheets.

The idea that the Scandinavian Ice Sheet somehow crept out of the Jostedal Valley like a slow moving goo, at the onset of the last glaciation period is wrong. We know that the glaciation happened much too rapidly for this to have been the case.

The Scandinavian Ice Sheet was many thousand times larger than the Jostedal Glacier. For the Jostedal Glacier to have grown to the size of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in the space of a few thousand years or less, it would have had to double in size every century. That's not how massive glaciation comes about.

Glaciation happens as a consequence of snow accumulation across large areas. The Scandinavian Ice Sheet came about as a consequence of a relatively small drop in temperature, or a modest uptick in winter precipitation.

Should temperatures drop by one or two degrees, the entire Hardangervidda mountain plateau would soon be covered in ice. The same would be true of the Scotish Highlands and all other high laying regions of northern Europe.

With summers currently barely warm enough to melt all the snow in these regions before the onset of a new winter, a tiny change in average temperature, or modest increase in snowfall during winter, would be enough to upset the balance. Once snow no longer melts off completely through the summer, glaciation happens, and can happen very quickly.

The return of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet is unlikely to take more than a few decades if temperatures were to drop by a degree or two.

Conversely, the end of a glaciation period are also quick.

When temperatures are consistently high, the entire ice sheet melts. It will not be just the edges that retreat. The whole thing shrinks.

This is what happened at the end of the last glaciation period, which was so warm that the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, including the ice the Jostedal glacier, disappeared completely.

The Scandinavian Ice Sheet didn't creep out of the Justedal region, nor did it slither back to it like some snake. The Jostedal Glacier and the Scandinavian Ice Sheet are only related in the way they come about and the way they disappear.

They come about through precipitation, and they disappear through melting. Large ice sheets appear and disappear in a matter of decades, not over thousands of years.

Hardangerviddaflora.jpg
Hardangervidda: Barely ice free in the middle of summer

Cosmic Weather Fronts

When cold air meets warm air, we get turbulence. In meteorology, such intersections between two different types of air are known as weather fronts. This is where we get precipitation, wind and instability.

Inside the two air masses, things are generally stable. It is at the intersection that everything happens.

This is true for all sorts of systems, not just weather. It's called fluid dynamics. It happens at the microscopic as well as the macro level.

In this respect, it's interesting to note that it appears from historic records that the onset and demise of glaciation periods have been accompanied by severe weather as well as severe geological events.

While the glaciation periods as well as the warm periods have been relatively stable, the changes from one period to another have been both quick and violent.

When we take into account Henrik Svensmark's work on climate changes, all of this comes together to form a simple picture. In his work, he points out that our solar system moves through distinct regions of space on its way around the center of our galaxy. Sometimes, we are in regions with a lot of cosmic dust. Other times we are in regions with little cosmic dust.

Our solar system is in other words regularly transitioning from one cosmic environment to another.

These transitions correspond to the onset and demise of glaciation periods.

It appears then that the violent climate and geological events we find evidence of in geological samples and ice core measurements correspond to cosmic weather fronts through which we transition from time to time.

DangerousShelfCloud.jpg
Dangerous shelf cloud

By NOAA - http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm, Public Domain, Link

Monday, February 26, 2018

The History of the Jostedal Glacier

The Jostedal Glacier, located in the mountains of Norway is the largest glacier on the continental mainland of Europe. To find larger European glaciers, we have to go to Iceland or Svalbard.

However, few glaciers have been as closely studied as the Jostedal Glacier, once thought to be the remnants of the great Scandinavian Ice Sheet that covered most of Northern Europe.

It used to be that anyone interested in climate change had to study the history of the Jostedal Glacier in great details. So important was its history that it was taught in primary school in Norway. I still remember having to learn the basic facts about this impressive glacier.

It is therefore quite astonishing to me to find the Jostedal Glacier getting hardly any attention these days. With the wealth of information available, I would have thought that Wikipedia would have had more on it than it has.

Even the Norwegian version of Wikipedia fails to mention the important fact that the Jostedal Glacier is no more than 6,000 years old.

During the early to mid Holocene, there was no glacier in the Jostedal area. Rather, there was a lush forest growing there. We know this because bits and pieces of this forest still come out with the melt water. When carbon dated, we get that the pieces are about 6,000 to 10,000 years old.

North western Europe was therefore at its warmest and most welcoming between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago. If we draw a long term trend line from the peak, we get that temperatures are going down.

Furthermore, we know that warm periods don't usually last more than 10,000 years. We are therefore due for a further decline in temperatures.

All of this was common knowledge, readily available in encyclopaedias back in the days when I went to primary school in Norway. But if we want to find these facts today, we have to read the scientific papers where they are mentioned.

On the other hand, if we want to learn about CO2, there's no lack of material in which we are told that this trace gas that makes up no more than 0.041% of the atmosphere is somehow of vital importance to the climate. The fact that the CO2 content has gone from 0.035% back in the 18th century to about 0.041% today, is presented as an existential threat to life on Earth.

In contrast, if we look up the deadliest super-volcano of the last 100000 years, long passages are dedicated to how insignificant this event might have been.

The pattern is clear, Wikipedia's editors will omit or trivialize anything that suggests that nature is the biggest driver of climate change, while they will go to extreme lengths to support the idea that a small variation in a trace gas will lead to catastrophic changes.

If anyone were still wondering, Wikipedia has long since been taken over by political trolls who seek to suppress and misrepresent certain facts. While factually correct, the information found in Wikipedia is always presented in favor of the Status Quo. It can therefore only be used to find officially sanctioned information, and facts that cannot be denied, such as the precise CO2 content of the atmosphere. For a critical and balanced interpretation of the facts, we have to do our own research and thinking.

P1000290Jostedalsbreen.JPG
Sidearm of the Jostedal glacier

By G.Lanting - Own work, CC BY 3.0, Link

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Proof That Photons are Dielectric?

The discovery that photons can be made to stick together goes a long way towards proving that photons are dielectric. After all, it is in the nature of dielectric matter to interact and form structures.

Three photons sticking together
Three photons sticking together

This was the hypothesis that I started out with when I developed my Velcro Theory of Physics during the summer of 2017.

My thinking was that if gravity is an electrical phenomenon, photons would have to be dielectric in order to be affected by it. They would have to consist of an electrically positive and negative part.

From this premise, I developed the entire theory.

An interesting benefit of this theory is that there's no longer any need to bend space in order to explain why light is affected by gravity. Gravity is merely acting on photons in the same way that it is acting on ordinary matter.

Gravity is explained in the Velcro theory as the consequence of a tiny imbalance in the electric force. While negative on positive attraction is equally strong as positive on positive repulsion, negative on negative repulsion is slightly weaker. This produces a net attracting force between electrically neutral objects.

If photons are dielectric, they are just as much affected by this as ordinary matter. The only type of matter that is not affected by gravity is the neutrino. The neutrino is the carrier of the electric force, and hence also the carrier of the gravitational force. It is not itself affected by these forces.

The dielectric photon
The dielectric photon

Friday, February 23, 2018

Death Cross Observed for Bitcoin

A few days after I recommended selling Bitcoin at 9000, it reached almost 12000. The price smashed through all the resistance with relative ease. The psychologically important 10000 level broke, followed by the 200 day moving average and 50 day moving average. The timing of my recommendation could hardly have been worse.

However, the fundamentals remain as bad as ever, and the technicals are not exactly rosy either. Over the last few days, a so called death cross has appeared in the charts. The weighted 50 day moving average has dropped below the weighted 200 day moving average. Furthermore, the price is now down to about 10000, below the weighted 200 day moving average.

Those who ignored my advice to sell at 9000 can now ignore my advice to sell at 10000. However, time is running out. Bitcoin has no future as a currency, and the technicals are as bad as ever.

Cryptocurrency Mining Farm.jpg

By Marco Krohn - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The Benefits of Drinking Camel Urine

A few months ago I came across a post by a radical secularist who professed that urine is considered haram in Islam. However, quite the opposite is the case, especially if the urine comes from a camel. Drinking camel urine is good for the digestive system, and prevents hair loss.

Wild Bactrian camel on road east of Yarkand.jpg

By John Hill - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Ragnarok and the Ramayana

If Ragnarok is based on events that took place around Indonesia before and after the Toba Catastrophe, then it would be reasonable to expect similar stories to exist in that region today. There should be Hindu legends with a similar story line. However, at first glance, there is no such equivalent story to be found. The only similarities between Hindu legends and Norse mythology is a fairly abundant reference to dwarfs, and the fact that humans are not directly involved in the wars waged by gods and demons.

But at closer inspection there seems to be a link. In both Norse mythology and Hindu legend, humans are helpless bystanders. The stories in both religions can therefore be assumed to be about natural catastrophes of various kinds. In this respect, the Hindu legend of Ramayana includes a war that may be of similar age to that of Ragnarok. It describes a great battle in which a land bridge between India and Ceylon appears, and where the center of civilization is moved from Nepal to Ceylon. A monkey army builds the land bridge. Hanuman, the leader of the monkey army, subsequently moves Mount Meru, the center of the world, to Ceylon. All of this is done as part of an effort by the god Rama to retrieve his kidnapped wife Sita.

Sita is the goddess of good fortune, success and happiness. Her abduction must therefore be interpreted as a loss of these qualities. A sudden deterioration of the climate would fit this narrative. Conditions in the Himalayas deteriorated while conditions around Ceylon improved, and that shift took place during a period of rapid change. The appearance of the land bridge indicate a falling sea level.

All of this fits well with the onset of the last major glaciation period that started around the time of the Toba Catastrophe. It appears then that Ragnarok and Ramayana may refer to the same event. Only the perspectives differ. Ragnarok took place relatively close to Toba, while Ramayana took place farther away. In both stories, land rise out of the sea, giving rise to a period of peace and prosperity after a prolonged war between gods and demons.

Odin und Fenriswolf Freyr und Surt.jpg
Odin and Fenris

By Emil Doepler - Doepler, Emil. ca. 1905. Walhall, die Götterwelt der Germanen. Martin Oldenbourg, Berlin. Page 55. Photographed and cropped by User:Haukurth., Public Domain, Link

When time comes for Ragnarok, the great battle between giants and gods, Loki and his children join the battle at the side of the giants.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

The Dwarfs of Voluspo

Voluspo is the poem in which the events surrounding Ragnarok are laid out and foretold. It tells of a time before Ragnarok, and a time after Ragnarok. It starts with creation, and ends with an ominous stanza in which we get the feeling that evil will once again rise. Evil is never completely destroyed. It will always rise again.

The cyclical nature of good and evil appears to be embedded in the text. My thesis that Ragnarok is not only a tale of the future, but also one of a past event appears therefore to be supported in the text.

Furthermore, there are several stanzas close to the beginning of the poem that lend support to my theory that the events depicted are those leading up to the Toba Catastrophe. These stanzas are nothing more than the enumeration of dwarf names. A picture is painted in which we see a world inhabited by benign dwarfs, existing before man, and cooperating with man once the human race is brought into existence by the Gods.

This state of affairs bares a close resemblance to how things must have been in and around Indonesia prior to the Toba Catastrophe. There existed in this region a relatively advanced race of dwarfs, which appears to have interacted with humans. These dwarfs are referred to as Homo Floresiensis. They existed before the Toba Catastrophe, but perished during or shortly after the eruption.

Homo floresiensis v 2-0.jpg

By Cicero Moraes et alii

Voluspo is believed to have received its current form some 200 years before vikings settled in Iceland. It is therefore assumed to be a relatively recent story. However, I do not believe that its relatively modern form conflicts with the idea that the basic bare bone essence of the story may be very ancient.

If the story is truly ancient, then it is likely to have been changed and re-worked over and over through the ages. Much has surely been lost. However, something so important that it fills several stanza will remain, even if its significance is lost on the people recounting it.

The lengthy reference to a tribe of dwarfs indicate that these were important to humans, so much so that they deserved a prominent place in our myths. If their mention had been brief in the original text, then they would surely have been deleted at some point. However, several stanzas in a religious text cannot easily be deleted, only reworked and altered to fit local conditions.

If Ragnarok is the story of the Toba Catastrophe, then the dwarfs mentioned in Voluspo are the dwarfs that once existed in and around Indonesia.

The Fimbul Winter

A valid objection to the theory that Ragnarok is the story of the Toba Catastrophy as observed by humans some 75000 years ago, is that stories that old would either have been lost completely, or become so grossly transformed over time that it would be unrecognizable.

However, there are several features of the Ragnarok story that would make it survive relatively unchanged over time. For one, it contains some very vivid imagery. The demons are truly fantastic. Secondly, the entire story is short. It's only a few stanzas in a poem. Anyone can remember the poem, or at least its main features and details.

But most importantly, Ragnarok is an event that has had many minor repetitions through time. Every now and again, we are all reminded of Ragnarok through prolonged cold periods, always accompanied with an uptick in seismic activity.

The Fimbul Winter is a recurring prelude to major volcanic eruptions. With a separation of no more than a few hundred years, we get some unusually cold years. During such years, wars and strife increase. Earthquakes and tsunamis follow, with spectacular volcanic eruptions to top it off.

It is the same pattern over and over again. With such regular repetition, it is not impossible for a story to survive for many thousand years. Furthermore, the story's predictive power makes it a useful tool in planning for the long term. The onset of cold weather is a sign that war and evil is on the rise, and periods of plenty do not last for ever. This is valuable information to keep in mind.

When the Fimbul Winter arrives, we should all take heed and prepare, because it is the prelude to war and trouble.

Fullerton harbor looking south Chicago Feb 2 2011 storm.JPG

By Victorgrigas at English Wikipedia - I (t3xt (talk)) created this work entirely by myself., CC0, Link

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Preparing for Ragnarok

We are entering a solar minimum, and our planet is reacting with earth quakes, volcanic eruptions and harsh winter weather.

Only yesterday, Mount Sinabung erupted down in Indonesia. From the look of it, it is an eruption a little larger than the Mount St. Helens eruption in 1980. We can therefore expect our planet to cool measurably over the next months. There may be a late spring. We may also see low temperatures persist into the summer. It all depends on how much more ash the volcano is going to pump into the atmosphere.

The eruption does not look large enough to upset things too much, though. However, if we see a few more of these eruptions, we could be in for a bad harvest with significant crop losses.

The effect of this would be a marked uptick in food prices. Volcanic eruptions that are large enough to upset the world's food production are inflationary. In extreme cases, they are even hyper-inflationary. Financial systems can collapse. Food supplies to cities can be interrupted.

Under such circumstances, fiat currencies may no longer be accepted by merchants. Only those in possession of gold or silver will be able to trade. This is the exact same scenario that pans out during a man made crisis like a financial collapse through hyper-inflation, only worse. Because in the case of a natural disaster there is too little food available. Someone will have to starve.

The most vulnerable will be those who are dependent on government handouts, because governments will not be able to get hold of the supplies. Merchants will refuse to accept food stamps backed by worthless government fiat when there are people ready to pay with silver and gold.

In the event of a truly catastrophic eruption in which the climate gets severely upset, owning land will not necessarily be a good alternative to owning gold or silver, because the land may be in the wrong location. Owning land that fails to produce the expected harvest will not save the owner, nor anybody else.

In the event of Ragnarok, only the lucky and the ones with the resources and will to move from one place to another will survive.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Sticky Light

Researchers at MIT have recently made some very interesting discoveries related to light. When passed through a dense cloud of ultracold rubidium atoms, photons stick together into pairs and triplets.


3 photons combining to produce structure

The structures formed have mass, and are therefore slowed down a lot, moving 100 000 times slower than ordinary light.

What has been observed appears therefore to confirm Halton Arp's hypothesis that matter is a product of "condensed" light.

Furthermore, the experiment fits well with the two orb model of photons described in my Velcro Theory of Physics. In that theory, photons naturally interact, latching onto each other to produce magnetic force. This provides a mechanism for stronger interactions to also occur.


3 positive and 3 negative particle quanta combining to form a photon

What I also found interesting was the way the slow down of light inside the rudidium cloud was explained. The description used matches closely the slalom model used in the Velcro Theory to explain slow down and refraction of light in transparent media.


Red and blue photons slaloming through a sheet of glass and a prism

Again, it seems that the Velcro Theory fits well with observed facts.

Monday, February 19, 2018

Preparing for Hyperinflation

Imagine a situation in which no-one wants to hold any fiat currency. Trust in the financial system has evaporated. The whole world is in a state of hyperinflation. How do we go about our day to day affairs? How do we get food on the table?

In such a situation, there will be an urgent need for an alternative medium of exchange.

The alternatives to fiat are gold, silver and crypto, and many are convinced that it is crypto that will be the preferred medium of exchange. However, I seriously doubt that this will be the case.

Imagine being in possession of valuable resources in a world where fiat has lost its purchasing power. What would you demand in exchange for these resources? Would it really be something as vague and intangible as crypto? Wouldn't silver or gold be a better trade?

I live in Portugal where they still have grocery stores at the corners. The logistic distance from me to a farm is short. The green grocer at the corner knows the farmers that deliver the produce. We regularly buy eggs directly from a farmer who comes in to town every now and again.

I doubt that these farmers would feel comfortable with crypto in exchange for their products. A silver coin on the other hand would be readily understood and appreciated.

However, I only have gold bars and wafers. I don't have any silver coins. How do I trade with the green grocer and the farmer selling eggs?

There are at least two ways I can do this. I can buy an option for a tremendous amount of supply from these people by handing them a gold wafer. That would involve trust. However, I see no reason why they would not honor their commitment and let me draw from their supplies until my quota has run dry.

Alternatively, I can go to a coin store and buy silver coins for my gold. During hyperinflation, no-one dealing in silver or gold will accept fiat. However, they will accept gold.

This means that I do not have to hold silver coins before I need them. I can always buy them with my gold when or if hyperinflation hits.

The trick to prepare for hyperinflation is not to hold all the different types of coins and bars that may be needed, but to hold currency that can be converted. Gold is the primary currency. It will always be accepted.

For those worried about hyperinflation, there is no better way to prepare than to hold gold or silver. Crypto is more likely to be a huge disappointment.

While we know for sure that gold and silver will keep and even improve their purchasing power during periods of inflation, the same is fare from certain for crypto. The prudent preparatory position is therefore to hold metals rather than crypto. Merchants will for sure accept our gold and silver. If they will also accept crypto is anybody's guess.

Zimbabwe $100 trillion 2009 Obverse.jpg

By Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe - Self-scan by (Marianian) followed by minor Photoshop enhancements to improve appearance and reduce size. Second version scan by (Camp0s) with original color preserved. Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons by User:Avicennasis using CommonsHelper., Public Domain, Link

Lions were Larger in the Past

In an environment where gravity increases over time, large animals must either become smaller or face extinction.

In light of this self evident truth, it's interesting to note that lions have grown smaller over time. They appear to have staved off extinction by becoming smaller.

Furthermore, the strange fact that it is the female lions that do most of the hunting can similarly be explained by an increase in gravity. The smaller females have remained competitive and able to pounce on their prey while the larger males have become too heavy for pouncing, despite growing smaller.

The relatively stronger males still have an important function. They protect the cubs and help in other tasks where strength rather than speed is the most important factor. The division of labor makes sense. However, this division may not have been originally as it is today. In the past, the tasks may have been the other way around.

Lion waiting in Namibia.jpg

What Thawed the Last Ice Age?

In his excellent lecture on the events that happened at the end of the last glaciation period, some 10000 years ago, Randall Carlson points out the enormous energy required to melt the ice sheet then covering a large area of the northern hemisphere.

This ice sheet which covered all of Canada and all of Northern Europe, as well as vast areas in Asia, disappeared in a matter of a few thousand years. The energy required to do this would have been enormous. So much so that it is completely unclear where it may have come from.

Randall's own conclusion is that the energy must have come from outside our solar system, but he gives no further suggestion to a source. From looking this up on the internet, the mainstream thinking quite predictably suggests that it must have been due to a sudden, inexplicable, rise in CO2.

However, a third possibility should also be considered. The energy may have come from inside our planet itself. If our planet is expanding, as I believe it is, then the crust of our planet is growing thinner. Whatever heat that is stored inside our planet will find its way out more easily during periods of expansion.

Noting that gravity appears to have increased during the exact same time that the ice sheets disappeared, we have further reasons to believe that the two events are related.

Some of the animals that went extinct at the end of the last glaciation period are impossibly large for our current gravity. They could not exist today, even if they had survived whatever immediate event that killed them off.

The reason for the expansion that triggered all of this is most likely a change in the electrical environment of our planet. We know from Henrik Svensmark's work on cloud formation that our planet enters and leaves areas of cosmic radiation with regular intervals. Furthermore, geological activity is linked to this, which in turn implies expansion of our planet.

Our planet expands, gravity increases and temperatures rise, all due to cosmic radiation.

Similarly, the start of glaciation periods, are linked to cosmic radiation, geological activity, and cloud formation. However, the heat reservoir inside our planet is in those cases not released. Our planet may even shrink a bit as pressures are released without expansion.

The exact mechanism appears to be complex. However, in general, glaciation starts with increased cosmic radiation, increased geological activity, but no expansion. It ends with decreased cosmic radiation, increased geological activity and expansion.

It is the change in cosmic radiation, rather than the absolute amount of it that causes abrupt geological activity, while it is the absolute amount of cosmic radiation that determines the amount of cloud cover and precipitation.

Finally, it is the expansion that releases the heat that melts the ice sheets. This is the same expansion that causes gravity to increase.
  
HardangerjøkulenFromHårteigen.jpg
Hardangerjøkulen

By Berland - Own work, CC BY 2.5, Link

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Magnetic Materials

One of the reasons I believe my Velcro Theory of Physics has some merit to it is that I kept discovering things that confirmed it while I was hammering it out. I had for instance never heard of the Faraday Effect before I checked to see if my prediction that magnetic fields would be related to polarized light had any experimental support.

Likewise, I didn't until today realize that almost all materials react in some way to magnetic fields. This was completely new to me.

Most materials react with a minuscule repelling force to magnetic fields. These are the so called Diamagnetic materials. Then there are the Paramagnetic materials that react with a minuscule attracting force. Finally, we have the Ferromagnetic materials such as iron that react with a relatively strong attracting force, and a permanent magnetic filed can be induced.

All of this is relatively easy to explain with the Velcro model where photons communicate magnetism between materials.

A material hit by polarized (magnetic) photons is unlikely to react in a completely neutral way. Some reaction is to be expected. The photons are likely to be reflected, at least to some extent.

The stronger the reflection, the stronger is the magnetic interaction. The reflection is in turn of two types. The Photons either bounce directly back, or they flip and bounce back facing the other way. If they bounce back without flipping, we get an attracting magnetic effect. If they flip, the effect will be a repelling force.

Attracting magnetic material
Attracting magnetic material

Repelling magnetic material
Repelling magnetic material

In most cases, the effect is weak, meaning that there is a lot of scatter and little reflection. However, some materials reflect rather well, and the best reflectors, the so called Ferromagnetic materials, reflect without flipping the photons.

Why exactly some materials reflect better than others, is not immediately clear. However, the Velcro Theory does in fact predict some kind of interaction, simply because some degree of reflection is what we would expect.

Moving Averages

The price of Bitcoin broke through strong technical resistance at a little over 10000 dollar, only three days after I made my recommendation to sell Bitcoin around 9000. My call to sell came pretty much at the exact moment Bitcoin made a sudden move upwards, first to 10000 and then to 11000 a day later. This morning, it fell back to resistance at 10200, before it made a bounce.

Ten percent moves in a matter of hours are now the norm for Bitcoin. Volatility is increasing as predicted. With nothing but technical analysis to guide the speculator, the moves from one line of resistance to another are swift. A big order to buy or sell trigger moves up or down. Everything is based on sentiment, and sentiment is easily manipulated.

The winners in all of this are the big manipulating whales, with masses of Bitcoin and cash, and the professional traders who know how to read data correctly. The losers are clueless newbies with no idea what they are getting themselves into. It is the emotions of the newbies that are manipulated. Their hands are shaken. They buy and sell precisely at the wrong times.

Some technical lines are rather obvious to see. They are the whole digits, like 9000, 10000 and 11000. Others are less obvious, such as 50% up and 100% up from a temporary bottom. Then, there are Fibonacci numbers that work well due to their pleasing relationships. (Remember, it's all about sentiment.)

Then there are the moving averages.

There are many different types of moving averages. However, they all have one thing in common. They tend to draw prices back towards themselves. A price that drifts too far away from a moving average that has worked well in the past, is likely to move back to the moving average in the future.

In the case of Bitcoin, the 200 day weighted average has been the line from which almost every dip in the past year bounced off of. That's why I predicted resistance against this moving average. It is presently at 10200, but appears no longer to be as strong as it used to be.

The bounce at around 6000 which marked the low point of the last crash a little over a week ago was around the 200 day simple average, which was then at about 8000. It may therefore well be the simple average that rules the day at present. If so, the weighted average will only provide temporary resistance before Bitcoin again falls towards the simple average, presently at 8300.

Note also, that the simple average was breached. Al the support lines, except for the psychologically important 6000 line were crossed for more than a day. That's a long time in Bitcoin land where everything happens at least ten times faster than in other markets.

Adding to this that, judging from Google Trends, no new suckers have been drawn into the game, the present bounce is off of the psychology of the newbies already drawn into the slaughter house. Once these are sucked dry, there will be little fresh blood for the whales and professionals. They will have to turn on each other. The only long term hope for them is therefore to keep the circus going. The price of Bitcoin must be manipulated high enough to again draw the enthusiasm we saw a few months ago. However, the odds for this succeeding, with so much blood now seeping out of the slaughter house for everybody to see, are rather slim.

Moving Average Types comparison - Simple and Exponential.png

By Alex Kofman - http://spotware.ctrader.com/c/XKB5n, Public Domain, Link

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Legal and Illegal Fraud

One of the contributing factors to the crash in the price of Bitcoin back in early February was the suspicion of price manipulations made possible through fraudulent use of Tether.

Tether is a payment system in which tokens are tied directly to underlying currencies such as the dollar and euro. Every Tether is backed by a dollar or euro held in reserve.

However, the suspicion is that some Tethers are in fact unbacked, and that this has been especially the case for Tethers used to buy Bitcoin. This would amount to counterfeiting and price manipulation.

In light of this, it's interesting to note that someone was able to put 400 million dollars on the table to buy Bitcoin just a few days ago. Could the fraud be ongoing even as an investigation is on its way? Could it even be the case that the latest price action in Bitcoin is mainly due to efforts behind the scenes to cover naked Tethers?

As long as Tether remains unaudited, anything is possible.

What Tether is suspected of doing is the practice of fractional reserve banking, which is a type of fraud only legal to those who hold a licence to engage in it. Only banks with a license to practice fractional reserve banking are allowed to generate unbacked currencies in the manner that Tether is suspected of doing.

The irony in all of this is that Tether may have to close down for doing exactly what other banks are doing on a daily basis. It exposes the hypocrisy of the current political order in which fraud is only illegal to those lacking a licence to engage in it.

This was precisely the state of affairs in late 18th century France. The state issued licenses for all sorts of fraudulent practices with the result that ordinary Frenchmen, and especially the poor and needy, got fleeced by the system.

Who Is Buying Bitcoin?

Again, I've proven for myself that I'm not very good at predicting price moves based on technicals. Bitcoin soared to almost 11000 over night, only three days after I warned of weak technicals for Bitcoin at 9000. That's a 20% profit for anyone who took my advice as a contrarian signal to buy.

However, it remains unclear who the buyers have been. Volume has been low and the retail investor seems to have been absent. Google trends for Buy Bitcoin is continuing lower. The naive buyer seems to be out of the game. On the other hand, a single buyer was active at around 9000 with a 400 million dollar bet. The whales appear to be the big movers.

With almost all the Bitcoins in the world owned by a handful of super rich speculators, it is without doubt one of the most heavily manipulated investment objects in existence. Pushing Bitcoin above its weighted 200 day moving average has no doubt been high on the agenda of the whales, who appear to have been successful at this point. Next on their agenda must be to re-create the hype. Mainstream media must again be engaged. With plenty of cheer leaders, and a knack for creating media attention, the Bitcoin whales will again draw the naive buyer into their trap.

It will be harder to convince people to enter this time around. However, now that the main technical resistance has been breached, there is little to stop Bitcoin from soaring, especially if volume remains low. Expect the hype to return in the coming weeks and months. The naive investor is going to be fleeced again.

Friday, February 16, 2018

Technicals vs. Fundamentals

In the short run, markets are voting machines. They simply reflect the popular opinion of a majority of people. However, in the long run, markets are weighing machines, reflecting the fundamentals of the economy.

This is in essence the difference between speculation and investing.

The speculator constantly tries to second guess everybody else. When a move has swung too far to the down-side, the speculator starts buying the dip. When a move has swung too far to the up-side, the speculator sells. This is done with very little regards to fundamentals. It matters little why the move took place in the first place. All that matters is that the move looks like it will continue, or looks like it is about to end.

When I suggested that Bitcoin holders should sell their positions at around 9000, this was based mainly on the fact that the 200 and 50 day moving average currently lie at about 10000. This indicates strong psychological resistance at that level. Getting out before this level is tested would therefore make sense.

However, my advice was also based on fundamentals. Bitcoin has no value due to the fact that it has no utility. No-one needs Bitcoin for anything. It is not required for paying taxes, nor is it required by any industry. As a medium of exchange, it is volatile, expensive and slow. Bitcoin has price, but no value.

This means that Bitcoin will go to zero in the long run. My advice was therefore not to trade on price action. The idea was not to sell at around 9000 and then buy back at about 6000, etc. My advice was to sell and stay out.

The right way to approach markets as an investor is to look at the fundamentals first, and then look at technicals. Number one is to determine the fundamental value of something. Only when this is established does it make sense to look at the technicals for timing. Furthermore, investors that realize that something is grossly miss-priced should not look at technicals at all, but act immediately regardless of technicals.

It is only during the orderly accumulation or unwinding of positions that investors should look at technicals for timing. When there is no rush to get into or out of a position, timing can be a lucrative thing to do. However, when there is a gross imbalance in a portfolio, trying to time the entry or exit point runs the risk of missing out completely. That's not a risk worth taking.

Of course, the ideal investor is never in a rush to do anything. Such a person has a very clear idea of the fundamentals and can therefore always take advantage of technicals. The ideal investor rolls into and out of positions when fundamentals change. Such changes take years to complete. The investor takes correspondingly long time to make the transition.

We are currently in a situation where there is a lot of debt, and interest rates are low. The fundamentals have been that of credit expansion. Stocks and bonds have gone up as a consequence. However, this is now about to change. It has been clear for several years that this will have to stop.

The fundamentals have for a long time suggested that we should roll out of stocks and bonds and roll into gold. I have done this. It has taken me five years to complete this transition. I have taken advantages of dips in prices, but mainly, I've simply accumulated whenever I've had some extra cash to spare.

Going forward, we will see interest rates continue to rise. Alternatively, we will see currencies fall in purchasing power. Either way, gold will rise relative to all other assets. I'm happy to have completed the transition from real-estate and stocks into gold at this stage. I can relax and watch as things progress from here onward. Then, as gold becomes overpriced at some point in the future, I'll start rolling back into stocks and real-estate. But I don't expect that to happen any time soon. Fundamentals always take years to develop. Only technicals can change from day to day.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Weak Technicals for Bitcoin

Based on Bitcoin's total lack of utility, we know that its fundamental value is zero. The only thing that is holding its price up is faith in the existence of a greater fool. Bitcoin is trading on pure sentiment with no regards for fundamentals.

Unfortunately for Bitcoin holders, sentiments are about to change for the worse again. The current bounce in prices from a low of 6000 to 9000 appears to be coming to an end.

The 10000 level is very unlikely to be broken. Besides being a psychologically strong resistance level, the 10000 level now has both the 50 day and 200 day moving average on top of it. Together, this forms a virtually impenetrable line of resistance.

The upside from here is at best 10% while the downside is 100%. Adding to this that the down side move is more likely than an upside move, it's again time to sell the bounce.

Going forward we have a neck line of a giant head and shoulder formation appearing at the 6000 dollar level. The head is a massive 14000 dollar from the neck line at 6000 to the top at 20000. The shoulders on either side are about 3000 high, from about 6000 to 9000. If this breaks, there will be very little resistance down to zero.

My advise to anyone holding Bitcoin has been to get out ever since it topped 7000. With the technicals now looking very weak, it appears that time is running out. The likelihood that Bitcoin goes to zero relatively soon is now far outweighing the chance of it ever going above 10000 again.

Casascius coin.jpg

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Time and Probability

Two of the hardest things to relate to in life are time and probability.

Time has a mysterious tendency to seem long or short depending on perspective, and probability has a surprising ability to be different than we think. In combination, the two phenomena can wreck havoc with our personal finances.

If we think in linear terms and focus too much on the immediate future, we are going to get things wrong. The temptation to do this is great, though. The immediate future is almost always pretty much identical to the immediate past. That gives us a very high probability of guessing the future right. However, what is often overlooked is that the gains achieved by getting things right based on this type of thinking are much smaller than the losses taken when we get things wrong.

Let us say that we discover a pattern that works 90% of the time.

Based on this fact alone, we would think we have discovered a sure fired way to make money from nothing. We simply place our bets with regular intervals, and reap the returns.

However, if the returns are 10%, while the losses are 90%, we gain nothing.

This is why day-traders very rarely last more than a few years.  Sooner or later, the pattern that was a sure winner, becomes the big loss.

The same is true for structured bets on probabilities. The XIV product, which was a bet on stocks neither going up nor down very much, was completely wiped out at a mere 10% correction.

The way to deal with our inherent tendency to think linearly is to look at things in very long perspectives. Recognizing where we are in a mega-trend makes it easy for us to put things in perspective, and make the investments that will weather the storms.

This is the strategy I recommend in my book on the subject. By studying mega-trends we can easily identify the things that are likely to do well over the long run.

For this to work, we have to be careful not to get ourselves into debt or in other ways become dependent on short term returns. Mega trends can take a long time to complete. If we are forced to sell before they become profitable, we are no better than the day-traders who find themselves caught by a sudden and unexpected down turn.

Monday, February 12, 2018

Naglfar, the Demon Ship

One of my favorite images from Ragnarok is Naglfar, an enormous ship made entirely out of the finger and toe nails of dead men. It brings hordes of demons across the sea from the east to do battle against the gods. The ship's commander is the Jotun Hrym, arch enemy of the goods.

The significance of the ship is interesting in two ways beyond its impressive appearance at the end of times. It tells us about the burial rituals of the Vikings as well as their attitude towards life and death.

The Vikings tended their dead, trimming their nails and hair before burial. The reason for this was that demons would use any untended nails or hair for their own purposes. By keeping the availability of building material for Naglfar to a minimum, Ragnarok could be postponed. However, Ragnarok could not be avoided.

In the face of evil, postponing the inevitable was preferred. Vikings did not gladly go to battle. They tried to avoid it as much as possible. However, when the inevitable happened, and there was no way around it, they would fight to the death, and to this day, this is considered the correct approach to conflicts in the West. Vikings were no more eager for war than are modern day soldiers.

Gokstadskipet1.jpg

The Gokstad Viking Ship - By Karamell - Own work, CC BY-SA 2.5, Link

Ragnarok and the Toba Catastrophe

Ragnarok is the end of the world account in Norse Mythology. It starts with the Fimbul-winter, three years of exceptionally cold weather. This leads to a great battle that terminates in what appears to be an enormous volcanic eruption. The battle itself is marked by earth-quakes, represented by the Fenris wolf, and tsunamis represented by the Midgard serpent. As the battle comes to an end, and it is clear that the gods are unable to stop the demons from winning, the sky turns red, people flee their homes and a thick mist engulfs everything. The only survivors are two people able to find refuge in a big forest far from the site of the battle.

Since Norse Mythology has a cyclical philosophy behind it, we can read Ragnarok as something that happened in the past as well as something what will happen in the future.

In this respect, it is interesting to note the direction from which the demons appeared. They came from across a vast ocean to the east, which is strange, because there is no big sea to the east of Norway. The events described in Ragnarok cannot have taken place in Norway, nor any place in Europe for that matter. They must have happened somewhere in the Indian or Pacific Ocean.

As it happens, a truly earth shattering event did happen some 70000 years ago in present day Indonesia. The Toba Catastrophe at the start of the last glaciation period was a super-volcano eruption that wiped out 90% of humankind.

Pinatubo ash plume 910612.jpg

Sunday, February 11, 2018

The Origin of the Word Bacalao

There are many theories regarding the origin of the word Bacalao.

This word is used for cod fish in Spanish and Portuguese, and has no resemblance to either Cod, as the fish is called in English or Torsk as it is called in Norway. Considering that Cod is native to the arctic waters of the North Sea and Barent Sea, it is strange that the word for this fish on the Iberian Peninsula is Bacalao.

A major hint to where the word comes from can be found in old sea maps where Portuguese and Spanish sailors put an island called Tera Bacalao up in the arctic.

Another hint is the fact that the German and Dutch language use the word Kabeljau for Cod.

The two words Bacalao and Kabeljau are clearly related. They are mere mispronunciations of each other.

Then there is the fact that it was the Hanseatic League that controlled the cod fish trade in the middle ages. Those were German speaking traders. The word they used was therefore Kabeljau.

Since the Spanish and Portuguese bought the fish from the German speaking traders, it is most likely that the Iberians got the word from the Hansas.

Finally we have the important fact that the major producers of dried cod were located at Kabelvåg in the Lofoten archipelago.

The Iberians were in other words entirely correct in locating Terra Bacalao in the Arctic.

Since the Iberians most likely mispronounced Kabeljau, their mythical island should more correctly be called Terra Kabeljau.

What appears to have happened is that the Hansa Traders had a preference for cod fish dried and processed in Kabelvåg. Top quality cod fish was synonymous with Kabelvåg. Kabelvåg became Kabeljau through a mild mispronunciation by the Hansas, and Kabeljau became in turn Bacalao when pronounced by the Iberians.

Bacalao is in other words a mispronunciation of the village of Kabelvåg, the original center of production for dried Cod.

Bacalhau.JPG

By WHell - Own work, Public Domain, Link

Doggerland and Sundaland

The end of the last glaciation period, some ten thousand years ago, saw the flooding of many fertile areas around the world. Two such areas are Doggerland and Sundaland. These were fertile flat lands, ideal for agriculture.

There are good reasons to believe that the lost city of Atlantis was located in Sundaland, and that this civilization was uprooted by the flooding that came with the shrinking ice shelves.

These people took their culture and religion with them to neighboring Australia and Asia. The fact that boomerangs have been found in Poland, and religious imagery found in Gobleki Tepe resemble that of Aboriginal Australians can all be explained in terms of the flooding that forced the people of Sundaland to move out of their original settlements.

The people of Doggerland were probably not as advanced as those coming from Sundaland. However, they too were more advanced than other people in their region. They too spread their culture when they were forced to find higher grounds for their settlements.

Doggerland.svg

By Max Naylor - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Map of Sunda and Sahul.png

By Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa) - Self made, using this map for the background, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Saturday, February 10, 2018

200 Day Moving Average

Things have a tendency to revert to an average. This is especially true for things related to sentiment. We may feel optimistic one day and sad another day, but on average we're hovering around a mean, not too far off from that of everybody else.

In financial markets, this tendency to revert to the mean can be measured and used. Prices have a predictable tendency to revert to their moving average. The 200 day moving average is in this respect, particularly strong.

When prices fall from a high level, there's usually a bounce at the 200 day moving average. An up-trend can be identified as one in which prices hover above this line, and bounce off of it whenever they decline. Conversely, a down-trend makes the opposite pattern. Prices lie below the average, and fail to break through it whenever there is a bit of optimism.

Trend reversals are typically marked by a breach of the 200 day moving average.

As things stand right now, the Dow Jones index is still well above its 200 day moving average, despite a big correction. Bitcoin is below its average, despite its recent rally, and Gold is struggling to break through its moving average from the down side.

The most likely scenario going forward is a bounce off of the 200 day moving average for both Dow Jones and Bitcoin. If gold manages to break through its moving average remains to be seen.

Eventually, I expect gold to break through its moving average, thereby continuing its bull run. I expect Dow Jones to break down through its moving average, and Bitcoin to remain in its down trend below its moving average. My guess is that all of this will be confirmed before the end of this coming summer.

Bulle und Bär Frankfurt.jpg
Market sentiments

By Eva K. - Eva K., CC BY-SA 2.5, Link

Extinction Level Snowfall Event

Places like Switzerland, Russia and Scandinavia are being hit by record levels of snowfall. Three meters of snow has already fallen in various places in Norway, and the winter is far from over.

This is making it hard for animals to survive the winter. Large animals are especially hard hit, as they cannot burrow down into the ground. They have to wade around in the snow.

Obviously, three meter of snow is so much that large animals that have not managed to escape are left stranded.

This made me think about the mysterious disappearance of large animals like the Woolly Mammoth some ten thousand years ago. That particular extinction event appears to have hit animals in the north much harder than animals farther south. It also appears to have hit with stunning swiftness. The remains of Mammoths have been found together in large fields in Siberia, as if they had been suddenly struck down.

A possible explanation to this swift extinction could be a particularly harsh winter, with many times more snow than usual. Imagine fifteen or more meters of snow. That would kill off all big animals for sure, and such an event is not completely unthinkable.

Henrik Svensmark has pointed out in his work that cosmic radiation is linked to cloud cover and precipitation. A season of unusually strong cosmic radiation is all that it would take to produce an extinction level snowfall event.

Other places, farther south would at the same time have experienced exceptional rainfall.

Since cosmic radiation is also related to volcanism and earth quakes, we would in addition to unusually heavy precipitation, have volcanic eruptions, mud slides and earth quakes. Humans living through the event would no doubt tell stories about this for generations to come. The deluge described in the Bible seems to fit this to a tee.

Furthermore, fringe theories on matter and gravity, such as my own Velcro Universe theory of physics, link cosmic radiation to increase in mass. Large animals, already weakened by the snowfall would find themselves further handicapped by an increase in inertia and gravity.

The extinction event happened at the end of the last glaciation period that ended ten thousand years ago. According to Henrik Svensmark, we can assume that Earth's magnetic shield was not very strong. There would be little shielding against cosmic radiation. This means that a gamma ray burst by a nearby supernova could easily have caused all this to happen.

My guess then is that the extinction event that happened ten thousand years ago was due to a supernova which in turn produced unusually heavy precipitation and a small but noticeable jump in inertia and gravity. As a consequence, all the largest mammals living in the northern hemisphere died out in a single season.

Friday, February 9, 2018

Radioactivity in Magnetic and Electric Fields

Electric and magnetic fields can be used to alter the radioactivity of substances. Applying such fields extend or shorten the half-life of radioactive material. So much, I've been able to glean from the internet. However, I have not been able to find out what combination of fields produce which effect.

Using the Velcro model to make predictions, we get that repelling magnetic fields will expel neutrinos from the nucleus of atoms, while attracting magnetic fields would allow more neutrinos to enter. Conversely, a repelling electric field would allow for more neutrinos, while an attracting electric field would reduce the density of neutrinos.

In the cases where more neutrinos are allowed to enter the nucleus, we would expect the nucleus to expand and therefore become more fragile and prone to break apart. In cases where neutrinos are pushed out of the system, the nucleus should become smaller and more robust.

From this we get that radioactivity should increase when an attracting magnetic field or a repelling electric field is applied. Radioactivity should decrease when an attracting electric field or a repelling magnetic field is applied.

Thursday, February 8, 2018

Record Warm Temperatures in the Arctic

With record colds and record snow fall all over the world, it is hard to find places where temperatures have stayed consistently high over prolonged periods during the last few years.

However, some places are registering high temperatures. Both Alaska and Spitsbergen have been warmer than average.

The only problem with this, as seen from a global warming perspective, is that it fits perfectly with what was the case during the Maunder Minimum, also known as the little ice age.

Arctic explorers back then had no trouble sailing north of Spitsbergen. Alaska was easy to reach too. It was everywhere else that was colder than normal, just as is the case today.

Sun (Earth POV).jpg
Sun

Muon Decay

I have never studied particle physics very closely, but I have nevertheless made the observation that there are only four stable subatomic particles found in nature. These are the:
  1. Neutrino (one neutral quantum)
  2. Photon (three positive quanta and three negative quanta)
  3. Electron (one positive quantum and two negative quanta)
  4. Proton (1089 positive quanta and 1088 negative quanta)
All other subatomic particles decay into these. The free Neutron for example, decays into a Proton, an Electron and a Neutrino.

Yesterday I came across the fact that the Muon decays into an Electron and two Neutrinos.

The anti-Muon decays into a Positron and two Neutrinos. Positrons again, are either gobbled up by atomic nuclei or recombined with an Electron to form a Photon. 

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Insane Volatility

Bitcoin bounced off the 6000 level this morning, and is now trading up 30% at 7800. That's pretty impressive for something that is valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

However, this does not come as a surprise. I predicted long time ago that Bitcoin would become more unstable over time due to its lack of intrinsic value.

Things that are far removed from reality are by their very nature extremely difficult to price.

Unfortunately for us, Bitcoin is just a symptom of a bigger problem. Financial markets are awash with derivatives of various kinds. For every conceivable product or service, there is some derivative in which the speculator can make massively leveraged bets.

Gold is no exception in this respect. Huge bets are made with no real link to reality. No-one has hundreds of tonnes of gold to trade. But that is not a hindrance in today's world. Derivatives are after all just paper contracts. There's no limit to the size of the bets that can be made.

This means that the increasing volatility that we have seen in Bitcoin is likely to come to all asset classes in the not too distant future. Prices are not driven by fundamentals, but by the shifting moods of the speculators, who in turn are making their bets based on the flow of fiat money coming from the world's central banks.

Casascius coin.jpg

Hugely volatile brass token