Lessons from the Black Death

With everyone obsessing about the flu, some words about the biggest plague in recorded history may come in handy. Not only will this set the current state of things in perspective, it may help us predict, prepare for, and ultimately take advantage of any real plague that may strike in a not too distant future.

The Black Death wrought havoc in Europe from 1346 to 1353, and cities in Europe were subsequently struck by this disease from time to time for centuries thereafter. The last outbreak took place in Porto about a hundred years ago. The initial wave in the mid 1300s was particularly severe. Europe's population was halved. In some places, 70% of the population perished.

To understand how this could happen, it's important to note that the Black Death coincides with the end of the Medieval Warm Period. Prior to the plague, Scandinavians grew wheat as far north as Trondheim. They settled in Greenland, and they harvested wild grapes on Newfound Land. There were oak forests growing on Hardangervidda. The weather was stable and predictable.

In the years before the Black Death, harvests had been terrible. The weather was suddenly much less stable. There were great floods in Germany and Belgium. Scandinavia was hit by cold wet summers. Wheat could no longer be grown in Norway. Grapes could no longer be grown in Austria and Germany. Everywhere, farmers had to change their ways, and many suffered starvation and misery in the process.

The plague hit a severely weakened population. However, no-one was spared. Kings and noblemen suffered as much as the commoners. The entire royal court of Norway perished together with so many noblemen that Denmark took control of Norway without any opposition. Some 70% of the Norwegian population perished.

The complete obliteration of the Norwegian nobility is noteworthy. It indicates that the Black Death was so severe that it hit even the fittest of people. However, the nobility may not have been all that well off either. Cold and damp houses, and little access to fruits and vegetables due to general food shortages may have weakened them too. Besides, nobility have to show up in places with particularly bad outbreaks in order to show support and concern for the population. They could not very well run off and hide in the countryside. That would have exposed them as frauds.

Interestingly, children were less likely to catch the disease than adults. As a result, entire villages and farms were for a while run by children. Once the plague died down, people went up the valleys to find communities organized by ten to twelve year old kids. The oldest ones were just old enough to have figured out how the farms worked, and were running the establishments with the help of kids as young as five years of age. The encounters were bizarre to the extreme. Many farms were completely abandoned. Others were run by kids. Dead corpses were found in their beds. No-one had come to take care of the dead.

For anyone wondering what a complete collapse of society might look like, the Black Death, as it unfolded in Norway and many other places in Europe, serve as great examples. It was not war and strife that brought on the collapse. Rather, it was climate change followed by famine and plague. There was a weakening of the population before the great culling.

What followed was a rapid restoration of order. The nobility was quick to regain control of the courts and the corporate economy. The Hanseatic League was down, but not out. They bounced back and continued their corporate exploits until the 17th century. The plague did not put an end to their monopoly powers. Danish nobility stepped in where Norwegian nobility had disappeared, and the Hanseatic League adopted to the new reality. However, the shift in demographics greatly weakened the corporate grip on the population.

With capital, in the form of mills and farms suddenly freely available, people could choose to work for themselves rather than a boss. They could go up a valley somewhere, find a "ghost farm", clean it out and farm for themselves. Ghost farms were so widely available in Norway that a new surname appeared. Ødegård is a common surname both in Norway and Denmark. It literally means abandoned farm, and was the name often taken on by individuals who chose to re-settle such places.

Food was suddenly plentiful, in spite of adverse climatic conditions. There was a shift from grain to cattle. All over Europe, the price of meat fell together with the price of most other foods.

With capital available free of charge, labour costs went up. People were no longer desperate to find employment. If the pay was too low, people could simply go up a valley to find a place for themselves. Nobody made any investments into capital. Machines and equipment could be had for free. Only gold and silver were coveted. The great economic winners were those with practical skills and precious metals. The big losers were owners of capital and land.

We can conclude from this that a great culling of the population will result in great opportunities for whomever is correctly positioned for such an event. The ideal position before the Black Death was gold and silver, as well as a pragmatic and down to earth skill set related to labour. A skilled labourer with a health stack of precious metals would have been something of a lord after the culling.

On the other hand, capital, real-estate and land are terrible investments before a culling. Skills that cannot be used for practical purposes will also be worthless. An arts degree isn't going to earn anyone a living after a culling.

With things becoming increasingly insane these days, I'm no longer eager to buy any land. I got a feeling that a great culling is near. Prices of land, real-estate and capital are in other words about to drop. Even if the culling is a mere 10% of the population, we'll see a drop in prices relative to gold. However, we may see prices for foods and essentials peak in the short term. We're still in the initial phase of the culling. Famines have yet to occur. But they seem increasingly likely to come about, so we better put away some savings for that as well. We won't magically be transported from where we are at the moment to the aftermath of the culling. We have to live trough it, and we have to make sure we're not caught short of essentials.

The climate changes that I've observed locally here in Porto over the last four years indicate an onset of a little ice age, and from what I can gather, the changes observed other places confirm this. We're about to see food shortages in places where this hasn't happened for centuries. Furthermore, a large portion of the population is currently busy weakening their immune system with an experimental vaccine. The combination of bad harvests and compromised health can easily set the stage for a real plague.

In the event of a plague, the wise keep away from people as much as possible. They keep up a healthy life style, and spend whatever it takes to get the required foods to do so. Having access to an isolated place somewhere in the country will be valuable. Keeping a low profile for however long it takes to get through the plague is essential. People get grumpy and edgy when desperate, and we don't want to make ourselves targets of their ire. However, once the culling is complete, things will look positively sunny for the survivors, no matter what the weather may be.

Great plague of London

By unknown - http://theloveforhistory.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/plague_380x529_712060a.jpg, Public Domain, Link