Keeping an Eye on Monkeypox

Monkeypox isn't getting much attention at the moment. That's either because this month is Pride month, or because the disease isn't spreading. However, a quick look at the below chart tells us that the disease is still spreading, and therefore a potential threat.

The media silence is either due to misplaced reverence towards a lifestyle that spreads Monkeypox, or part of a deliberate effort to propel the spread out of the confines of homosexual men and into the general public.

A spread beyond the confines of hardcore Pride people comes with obvious benefits to pharmaceutical companies. Millions of dollars can be made if Monkeypox vaccines can be mandated onto the population, so it's not unthinkable that this is the motive.

But we should not get too hung up in possible motives. Let's instead analyze the chart so that we'll know which way things are likely to go.

First thing to look for is whether the curve is exponential or not. We see that there were 100 cases on May 20, and more than 200 cases on May 25. May 30 saw more than 400 cases. June 4 saw more than 800 cases.

That's an exponential growth, indicating that the spread is out of control. However, June 9 did not reach 1600 cases. The number came in at about 1300. That's a slow down in the spread.

Note that the chart is cumulative. The numbers will never go down. The end of the outbreak will be reflected in the chart as a flat line. A drop in new cases will show up as a slower growth. The slow down may in other words signal that the peak is already in.

It remains to be seen if Pride month will revive the exponential growth in numbers. But current numbers are cause for optimism. The population has not been sufficiently weakened for the disease to spread beyond the most vulnerable among us. 

Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot

By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link