I've predicted the imminent demise of Bitcoin ever since 2017, so I should be careful making any more predictions about its near term prospects. However, there's a few things worth noting about the latest drawdown in its price, which is now lower than its peak of almost $20,000 back in late 2017.
- In its 12-year trading history, Bitcoin has never before dropped below previous cycle peaks.
- The nearest support band below $20,000 is around $10,000.
- There is no such thing as oversold when it comes to things that no-one needs.
If Bitcoin fails to break above $20,000 in the short term, we're likely heading for $10,000, which will set up a new pattern in the Bitcoin chart; namely a left shoulder and a head, with a neck-line at $10,000.
This pattern will take five years to develop to its conclusion, and has a good chance of ending in a further drop. That's five lost years of potential gains elsewhere. It's also five years of changes in technology, which will make Bitcoin even more outdated than it is today.
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