Putin's Threat

Ukraine has lost some 20% of its territory to the Russians, and the response by the West has been to send the Ukrainians more advanced weapons with longer range. However, the West has refrained from sending weapons with long enough range to reach targets well inside Russia.

Weapons currently sent to the Ukrainians can hit targets immediately inside Russia, but not much beyond that. The West is escalating the fighting, but only gradually so not to provoke Putin to the point of acting on his threat to hit targets outside of Ukraine.

Putin is known to be a man of his words. When he says that something will happen, it usually does happen. So when he said that decision making centers beyond Kiev will be targeted if there are attacks on Russian soil, he likely meant it. But what targets were Putin having in mind? How and where could Putin strike beyond Kiev without risking an all out war with the West?

The answers to these questions may be found in the way the West has targeted Russian decision making centers. Western intelligence has been fed to the Ukrainians, and used to kill top ranking Russian officers. Could it be that the Russians have the intelligence to respond in kind, but the good sense to refrain from this kind of tactic?

It would be foolish of Putin to order an attack on a big target inside the US, so I doubt that there will be a bomb dropped on the Pentagon, even if a Russian sub could do such a thing. NATO's headquarters in Brussels are similarly unlikely to be hit.

The targets need to be of a kind that don't provoke popular support for a direct confrontation with Russia. They must either be so anonymous that no-one cares, or so unpopular that no-one objects.

Furthermore, attacks must be done in such a way that they're either impossible to trace back to Russia, or so well announced in advance that no-one is surprised when they happen. We're looking at car accidents that kill high ranking NATO officers, or attacks so well announced that no-one gets hurt.

In the case of well announced attacks, they need to be done with such force and precision that the inspire awe and fear. The public response should ideally put pressure on politicians to set an end to the fighting in Ukraine.

There is no lack of unpopular and/or anonymous officers for the Russians to target. However, we have no idea whether the Russians have the means to take them out on an individual basis. But if they can do this, Putin may at some point name the person he has in mind, and then follow up with a targeted assassination. If so, the person must not be too famous, or Putin himself will be targeted. It's better to go for someone that hardly anyone has heard of.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link