The Complexity Trap

There's a lot of confusion when it comes to the role and significance of complexity. The biggest misconception is that complexity is a sign of progress. We are better off living in a modern society, full of complexities, as opposed to simpler but less affluent societies of the past. Many conclude from this that it is the complexity that added comforts and affluence to our lives.

However, it's not complexity that made modern societies preferable to past ones. It's the efficiencies achieved that did that. A great deal of progress is due to a removal of complexities. The internet being a good example of this.

We can now look things up on the web when we wonder about things. We save ourselves hours of time trying to find the right books in the library. Internet made life in this way less complex.

The complexity inherent in the internet technology is hidden from us, and that's a good thing because complexity is something we want as little of as possible. Complexity is a wasteful bi-product of progress, and should be treated as such.

This is why I'm enthusiastic about the internet, but skeptical to many of its applications. My pet hate is crypto-currencies, which are way more complex than the bare minimum required for wealth preservation.

There's no simpler way to store wealth than to own some physical gold. Hence, any derivative of this is inherently wasteful. Paper gold, ETFs, and future contracts may have their place. But they are more complex than the metal itself.

Fiat money is a step farther away from simplicity. It requires legal tender laws, taxation and central banking; systems that add nothing of value, but heaps of complexity.

Crypto is even worse. No-one understand it completely. There's no inherent need for it. It consumes energy. It cannot be held in our hands. It's a complete waste, yet people ascribe value to it, mainly due to their muddled understanding of complexity.

Complexity requires intelligence to be understood, so people think that complexity is a sign of intelligence. They may not understand the system before them. But they see the complexity of it, and they assume that this is due to some higher purpose.

This is an age old trick. Make a machine look complex and fancy, and people will believe it to have special powers. The con-artist can then get away with all sorts of claim, because only he is smart enough to fully understand the intricacies of his creation.

If sufficiently impressed, some will buy the story and the product, because that's the smart thing to do. Having bought into the scam, they talk highly of it. They admit to not understanding it fully. But they were smart enough to get in early. Never mind that there are far simpler alternatives to the product at hand. Complexity is a sign of progress.

This can in turn become a self fulfilling prophecy. The scam balloons into a bubble of massive proportions. Complexity really is a sign of progress! The more complex the better! Why not introduce Bitcoin futures and Bitcoin ETFs? Heck, why not make a lending platform like Celsius?

But complexity is in reality a waste product. It burns energy. It consumes resources. It muddles facts. It obscures truth. If nothing is added in the way of convenience and simplicity, complex solutions collapse.

The tower of Babel is a story about this. It was a stupid project from the start, and it collapsed. Nothing of value was created by the project. Once this was fully understood, people went their separate ways.

This is about to happen again. Once the true nature of complexity is understood, people will turn to simplicity for solutions, and they will find it in gold, productive land and capital goods capable of producing life necessities.

Tower of Babel

By Pieter Bruegel the Elder - Levels adjusted from File:Pieter_Bruegel_the_Elder_-_The_Tower_of_Babel_(Vienna)_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg, originally from Google Art Project., Public Domain, Link