Ten Days of Maintenance

Russia has turned off gas supplies to Europe through its northern pipeline due to ten days of necessary maintenance. The pipeline will be turned back on on July 22, unless there are unresolved issues remaining.

The mere specter of a possible prolonged shutdown has already won Putin a point. Germany has pressured Canada into releasing a turbine necessary for the proper functioning of the pipeline. German politicians don't want to give Putin any excuses, and are willing to make concessions to avoid a showdown over the pipeline.

Putin is on his side wary of irking the West into military action, so he's not likely to shut the pipeline down without plausible excuse. But he will no doubt use the leverage at his disposal to its fullest extent.

Putin has been frustrated by German refusal to allow a second pipeline to be opened, and he's also frustrated by the West's continued support of Ukraine. It would be strange if he's not thinking of ways to resolve these issues to his liking.

My guess is that the pipeline will be opened as promised on July 22, possibly at 100% capacity, but that issues are found relatively soon afterwards. Gas flow will be sporadic, and Putin will argue that this problem can be resolved by opening the second pipeline.

Technical issues can also be made to coincide with issues related to Ukraine. Putin needs only plausible deniability in order to avoid direct confrontation with the West, and he can maintain this by making gas supplies sufficiently erratic to only correlate loosely with geopolitical issues.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link