It's July 28, and we're now at 21,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. That's 800 more than the 20,300 cases I predicted four days ago, so it appears that we have not yet reached a steady flow of cases. Instead of 700 new cases per day, we had 875 new cases per day over the last four days.
This deviates from how things developed in Portugal, where a steady flow was reached once we had a doubling of cases every 16 days. The situation worldwide remains a doubling every 16 days, with no sign of deceleration.
However, a steady state may nevertheless be close at hand. Sticking with our thesis that Portugal is a leading indicator, we can optimistically predict a steady state at around 1000 new cases per day. If we assume that each case requires 10 days of hospitalization, we can cautiously predict that hospitalization will top out at about 10,000 inpatients with Monkeypox globally.
Looking at the accumulative numbers, we can predict that we will have about 4000 new cases over the next four days, and that this rate will remain steady going forward:
- July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
- July 28 - 21,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- August 1 - 25,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- August 5 - 29,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- August 9 - 33,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
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| Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot |
By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link
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