It's July 8, and the global number of Monkeypox cases has just passed 8,000. My prediction from June 23 was for this to happen on July 9, which means that I was off by only one day.
We can conclude from this that Pride month had no major impact on the spread of the disease. We have not seen an acceleration in its spread. On the contrary, the rate of increase is declining. We used to see a doubling of cases every 9 days. This has now slowed down to a doubling every 12 days.
If the spread continues at the present rate through July, we will have 32,000 cases world wide by August 1. If we come in substantially below this number, we can conclude that the outbreak is in decline.
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| Monkeypox, cumulative cases, linear plot |
By Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2022) - "Monkeypox". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox [Online Resource] - https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox, CC BY 4.0, Link
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