Predictions Coming True

I like making predictions. It's a great way to check on my thinking about current events. If I'm right, my predictions comes true. If I'm wrong, they don't. There're also the in between cases, where my predictions come true in some unexpected way, or there's a twist that makes things unfold slower than expected.

The purpose of this isn't to be able to tell people after the fact that I was right. Such posturing is for losers. Being right is merely a side-effect of good predictions that should be toned down so not to feed the ego with too much confidence. Anyone can make a bunch of predictions and then selectively brag about having some of them come true. However, if there's no positioning or skin in the game when the prediction was made, it has no value to anyone. It's merely a talking point of no consequence.

Predictions are made for the purpose of navigation. The more we get right, the more we benefit, provided we know how to weigh our odds and spread our risks. For instance, I would never bet against crypto-currencies, no matter how sure I am of their eventual demise. Bets are to be placed carefully on things that are likely to pan out in the medium term. Risky bets are to be avoided, or played with small stakes.

This strategy has earned me a reasonable return on my investments. It has also saved me a lot of money in taxes, and it has more recently saved me from making the mistake of getting myself vaccinated. In all of these cases, I've made predictions, and positioned myself accordingly.

The big financial move that set me going on my current path was the sale of my house in Norway. That decision was based on my observation that taxes and fees related to my house were growing faster in percentage terms than the appreciation on the house itself. I foresaw a likely turning point where house prices would increase less than the fees to hold it, at which point the house would go from being an asset to a liability.

With the state in constant need of more revenues to cover its ever-growing budgets, houses are obvious targets for taxation. They are registered by the state, they cannot be moved abroad or into hiding, and they are generally owned by the better off. Owning more than one house is a luxury that can be taxed even more.

These predictions made it clear that the best move in my case was to sell my house and to use the proceeds to pay off debt on my wife's modest apartment in Porto, and to buy gold. The tax benefits from this ran in the thousands of dollars per year, and gold has appreciated at a healthy rate.

There has been no change in policies since I made my move. The state is as broke today as it was back then, and the number of programs in need of financing are increasing. Hence, my wife and I are not going to buy real-estate or land any time soon. If a buying opportunity comes along, we'll keep our investment small. With the state in constant need of more funding, the last thing we want is to appear rich enough to afford extra taxes.

Our financial positioning has paid off as hoped for. However, it may be our decision not to get vaccinated that turns out to be our most important. This too has been based on predictions. I figured out that the virus was mostly harmless as early as April 2020. April this year we had evidence to suggest that the vaccine was counterproductive.

As of late, there's been a deluge of evidence to suggest that the vaccine is not only pointless, it's potentially deadly. No amount of inconveniences thrown at us for refusing the vaccine will make us change our mind. The vaccine is not proof of health, it's proof of ill health, and I pity the ones sitting in their segregated quarters under the false impression that they are somehow safe from illness. They are lumped together with other vaccinated people, which is likely to be the worst possible combination as far as health is concerned.

It remains to be seen if the vaccinated become the only ones getting seriously ill from the flu in the years to come, but this prediction looks increasingly likely, as does my prediction that the vaccinated will suffer from a lot of illnesses unrelated to the virus. My guess is that we're approaching peek denial at this point and that the worst is behind us as far as pressure to get vaccinated. This winter may be difficult for the vaccinated, but the tide is shifting. The ones standing firm at this point will soon be rewarded with the luxury of good health in a world full of illness.

Making predictions

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