Assassination Attempt on Putin Advisor

Someone tried to kill a Putin advisor the other day. They failed. Instead of killing the advisor, they killed his daughter. However, it doesn't matter whether they killed the right person or not. The message is clear. Someone wants to escalate the conflict in Eastern Europe to include assassinations of political leaders. If that someone turns out to be a high ranking officer or politician in a country hostile to Russia, we can expect to see some kind of retaliation. However, as I pointed out in March, Putin better think long and hard about taking the bait. Once assassinations are included in war tactics, things can quickly turn ugly for the political elite on both sides of the conflict.

As for likely targets, should Putin decide to cross the Rubicon, my analysis from June still holds. Unpopular and largely obscure western leaders may start dropping dead under mysterious circumstances. If so, we'll know that Putin has determined the assassination attempt on his advisor to have been instigated in the West rather than in Kiev.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link