Russian FSB has identified an Ukrainian special agent as the perpetrator of the assassination attempt on one of Putin's advisors. Taken on face value, this should mean that revenge will be wrought on state agents in Ukraine. However, the Russian announcement may be a red herring.
The agent may be a fiction created by the Russians. If so, the message is that the Russians don't care who did it, and that the retaliation will be against a target of their own choosing.
Only time will tell which one of it is. If there's a targeted retaliation against the agent and/or her boss, we can conclude that the agent was real and that nothing more elaborate should be read into the story.
However, if there's no retaliation in Ukraine relatively shortly, we can conclude that the agent is a fiction. If so, we'll have to look for other seemingly unrelated events to figure out what the Russians may be up to.
Some high ranking officer in the West may have an accident. Done correctly, this will seem unrelated, but will carry a clear message to the people behind the attack in Russia. Those going after Putin's inner circle are playing with fire.
.jpg#/media/File:200212-D-AP390-6107_(49672771878).jpg "Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg") |
| Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg |
By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link
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