32,000 Cases of Monkeypox Worldwide

It's August 9, and we have close to 32,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide as predicted eight days ago.

This is cause for optimism, because it indicates that we've reached a steady state similar to what happened in Portugal in July. The disease has found an equilibrium in which the number of people cured matches the number of new cases. The worldwide number of patients with Monkeypox currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 10,000 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days.

Assuming that this steady state persists, we can make the following projection going forward:

• July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
• August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
• August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
• August 17 - 40,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
• August 25 - 48,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
• September 2 - 56,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients

Pride flag

By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link