Blinking First

EU's strategy against Russia is to keep sanctions in place until Putin blinks. The strategy is to stay calm longer than Putin can endure, so political leaders are out in force with their warnings about this winter being tough for everyone. Macron has told the French that the age of abundance is over. German leaders are telling people to skip showers and clean themselves with wet towels instead. The English are being told to prepare for a cold winter.

The assumption is that Europeans care enough about Ukraine to make sacrifices at home. However, nobody cares much about Ukraine, and no-one is motivated for a significant cut in their standard of living.

This is starting to dawn on some politicians. One German MP has suggested complete capitulation to Russian demands. He sees no alternative to accepting Russian terms related to their second gas pipeline.

Such a move would solve all the problems facing Europeans this winter. The age of abundance will return as if by magic. The only ones holding this back is a handful of sadistically inclined individuals, and this fact is becoming increasingly apparent. Come this winter, someone will blink. However, that someone isn't likely to be Putin.

Emmanuel Macron

By EU2017EE Estonian Presidency - Tallinn Digital Summit. Welcome dinner hosted by HE Donald Tusk. Handshake, CC BY 2.0, Link