It's August 17, and we have close to 39,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. This is 1000 less than predicted eight days ago based on an assumption that the outbreak has stalled.
This is cause for optimism, because it indicates that we've reached a steady state similar to what happened in Portugal in July. The disease has found an equilibrium in which the number of people cured matches the number of new cases. The worldwide number of patients with Monkeypox currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 8,750 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days. That's 1,000 fewer than we had eight days ago.
Assuming that this steady state persists, and that we'll hover around 1,000 new cases per day, we can make the following projection going forward:
- July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
- August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
- August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- August 17 - 39,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- August 25 - 47,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- September 2 - 55,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- September 10 - 63,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
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By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link
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