It's August 25, and we have close to 46,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. This is 1,000 less than predicted eight days ago based on an assumption that the outbreak has stalled at 1,000 new cases a day.
This is cause for optimism, because it indicates that the world is following a trajectory similar to Portugal, where new cases are becoming fewer.
The worldwide number of patients with Monkeypox currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 8,750 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days.
If we hover around 875 new cases per day for the next eight days before going lower, we can make the following projection going forward:
- July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
- August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
- August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- August 17 - 39,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- August 25 - 46,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- September 2 - 53,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- September 10 - 59,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
- September 18 - 65,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
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By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link
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