The Coming Winter Offensive

Russia will stage a major offensive in Ukraine this winter. That's a near certainty. The objective will be to secure the territories now considered Russian after the referendum that they concluded this past week. The Russians may also extend their operations farther into Ukraine in order to gain territory with which to broker a peace treaty on their terms.

This may sound farfetched, given how Russia is on the defensive at the moment. But the current Russian weakness is going to turn to strength once the frost sets in.

Ukranian territorial gains have come at a great price, both in manpower and material. Russians, on the other hand, are keeping their powder dry. Come winter, Ukrainian forces will be depleted and in dire need of more military equipment, while Russians will have a surge of new soldiers with plenty of hardware and ammunition coming to the front line.

Once the frost sets in, military mobility increases, because heavy vehicles are no longer confined to roads and bridges. They can cross fields, lakes and rivers in broad attack formations. This is why winter is the season for war in countries with cold climates. Russians know this better than anyone, and are simply waiting for the frost to set in.

There's no point in staging any large-scale operation at the moment because fall as well as spring are wet seasons when armies can get bogged down in the mud. Fall and spring are ideal for defensive operations. Winter is ideal for large scale offensives.

The coming winter offensive will not only be swift, but also more brutal than what we've seen so far, because Russian forces will feel entitled to use more force now that they see themselves as operating on Russian soil. However, up until the offensive starts, the war may seem like it's winding down, with both sides spending less and less effort.

The Ukrainians will wind down due to a lack of manpower and material, and the Russians will simply stay in their defensive positions.

The winter offensive will come as a surprise on everyone who buys into the propaganda that the reduced activity during fall is due to both sides being exhausted.

Those who believe that Ukraine will do fine due to billions of dollars in military help from the West will also be disappointed, because the help is no longer coming in the form of fresh equipment. The West has depleted its stockpiles of hardware. The money pledged is for new equipment that will take years to build due to the West's obsession with high tech equipment.

The Russians have remained relatively low tech, with more focus on production capabilities. Their stockpiles of hardware are not nearly as depleted and will be replenished in time for the offensive. There're also a whole range of particularly brutal weapons the Russians have so far refrained from using.

As for any Russian military operations outside Ukraine, the chance of this happening is minuscule. Russia has no history of going to war against the West unless provoked. They don't annex territories unless there are Russians living those areas. Russia is not at war with the West and has no interest in provoking such a war.

The Western elite, on the other hand, seems hellbent on escalation. Pipelines are blown up. Anything that ties the West to Russia is a legitimate target in their efforts to isolate Russia.

The fact that our elite is now openly terrorizing us is a sign that they too know that a major offensive is coming this winter, and that there's very little they can do about it unless they can get Russia to lash out at them, and thus provoke a total war where everything can be burned to a crisp.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link