It's September 10, and we've reached 57,000 cases of Monkeypox worldwide. That's 2,000 fewer cases than predicted eight days ago. Instead of 750 new cases per day, we got 500 new cases. This is a remarkable drop in new cases, indicating that the outbreak may be over by Christmas.
The worldwide number of cases currently in hospitals can be estimated to be 5,000 based on an assumption that patients are released within 10 days.
The downward trajectory we've predicted based on data from Portugal is materializing. Assuming that this trend persists, we can make the following projection going forward:
- July 24 - 17,500 cases, 700 new cases per day, 7,000 inpatients
- August 1 - 24,000 cases, 750 new cases per day, 7,500 inpatients
- August 9 - 32,000 cases, 1,000 new cases per day, 10,000 inpatients
- August 17 - 39,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- August 25 - 46,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- September 2 - 53,000 cases, 875 new cases per day, 8,750 inpatients
- September 10 - 57,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 5,000 inpatients
- September 18 - 61,000 cases, 500 new cases per day, 5,000 inpatients
- September 26 - 63,000 cases, 250 new cases per day, 2,500 inpatients
- October 4 - 65,000 cases, 250 new cases per day, 2,500 inpatients
- October 12 - 66,000 cases, 125 new cases per day, 1,250 inpatients
- October 20 - 67,000 cases, 125 new cases per day, 1,250 inpatients
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By Gilbert Baker (Vector graphics by Fibonacci) - SVG based on this image, Public Domain, Link
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