Robustness of Infrastructure

One of my main concerns with modern society has long been the fragility of its infrastructure. We are increasingly relying on systems with little to no redundancy. If these systems break, there are no alternatives, and people get in trouble. Having been wary of this for some time, I've positioned myself accordingly. I've made myself relatively independent of modern infrastructure, and I've moved to a country where there's still much redundancy in the way things are done.

Portugal is a country where there are many small shops, small farms and small businesses. The consumer is never far away from a producer. The weather is generally warm. Nobody freezes to death or starves to death in this country.

Now, with rogue actors having blown up Germany's main supply-line of natural gas, the virtue of redundancy has become all the more apparent. Gas pipelines may be super-efficient, but they are open to sabotage from state sponsored terrorists. Without alternative supply lines, countries like Germany are sitting ducks for this kind of activity.

When it comes to natural gas, the most robust supply system is LNG delivered by ship. Such infrastructure allows the receiver to change suppliers, and if someone blows up one port, there's always another port that can be used. This makes Iberia the most robust region in Europe when it comes to natural gas imports, because Spain and Portugal are completely self-reliant in this respect. Iberia gets its natural gas delivered by LNG ships and can therefore pick and choose where they get their gas from.

The consequence of this is that Iberia has suddenly become more appealing in terms of investments and industry. It has by chance become a region of Europe that can operate relatively independent of what rogue actors decide to do. Instead of being seen as backwards in the way they get their energy delivered, Iberia has become a fortress of sorts.

Other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, will want to go the same way. The goal of every country will be a more robust infrastructure. With no country any longer trusting other countries to deliver what they need, every country will want to become its own fortress, and the consequence of this will be a fractured Europe with every country primarily focusing on what's right for its own security and prosperity.

If the goal of the state-sponsored terrorists was to split Europe into its various regions and sub-regions, then their success is pretty much ensured. However, if the goal was to unite Europe into a single geopolitical force, it will prove a fiasco.

Klaus Schwab

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