Friday, October 7, 2022

Cantillon's Inflation

Richard Cantillon noted in his book on economy, written more than 300 years ago, that monetary inflation doesn't result in evenly distributed price distortions. Rather than lifting all boats equally, monetary inflation moves through the economy like a wave, lifting some boats more than others, and at different times.

This is because the preferences of those getting the added money supply depend on their circumstances. The first ones are usually well-connected businessmen who will buy financial assets. The next ones will buy other things. The last ones will typically spend it on consumption. Hence financial assets go up in price before consumer prices start rising.

Another aspect of this is that monetary inflation distorts prices close to the source before it affects more peripheral areas. Hence, we have 17% price inflation in the Netherlands at the moment, while it's only 10% in Portugal. Physical proximity to the ECB explains the difference in price inflation.

Following up on this thought, we can expect the damage caused by monetary inflation to be greater close to the source than farther away. This too can be imagined as a wave which is largest close to the disturbance that caused it. If so, investing in Portugal may be the right thing to do once the wave has moved through the economy.

1959 sovereign Elizabeth II obverse.jpg
Sovereign

By Heritage Auctions for image, Mary Gillick for coin - Newman Numismatic Portal, Public Domain, Link

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