Blowing up European Infrastructure

Someone blew up Russia's two main gas pipelines to Germany. This means that Russia can no longer turn their gas deliveries to Germany back on. Putin's leverage in that respect is gone. He can no longer entice the German people with the promise of normality if they simply accept his demands.

From this fact alone, we know that it's highly unlikely that the Russians blew up the pipelines.

Meanwhile in the North Sea, mysterious drones are flying around the Norwegian production platforms, making it clear to everyone that these platforms can easily be knocked out if so desired.

On the face of it, we might expect Russian escalation in the North Sea. They may choose to knock out a pipeline or two in retaliation. However, this will not benefit anyone but the US who sell LNG gas to Europe. Destroying European infrastructure will do nothing to end the war, and only play into the hands of those who want to divide and conquer. The Russians are therefore unlikely to blow anything up in the North Sea. The response is more likely to come in the form of propaganda.

Putin can again claim that he has the interest of the common people in mind. He has nothing against ordinary hard-working Germans, or the downtrodden Englishman, or ill-treated US citizen. He will go to extraordinary lengths to avoid hurting them. But as long as the elite in these countries insist on poking the Russian bear, he has no choice but to protect his own people.

Putin can further lay the blame on the American for the destruction wrought upon European infrastructure. It will be easy to convince a large swath of Germans that it is the Americans that are at war with them, and that the Russians are their true friends.

Putin can mention the North Sea infrastructure and point out that if he truly wanted to hurt the Germans, there would be no gas coming to Germany from that side either. The destructive capabilities of the Russians are immense, but they are restraining themselves out of love for the common people.

Whoever blew up the pipelines in the Baltic Sea handed Putin a golden opportunity to come across as the rational leader while painting the US as a demonic entity hellbent on destruction.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link