Signs of a Crumbling Ukrainian Frontline

Russia is back in the headlines with rumours of a coup attempt against Putin by the Wagner group of mercenaries. This comes only days after the Ukrainian defence minister had to come out and tell people that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing with Ukrainian forces on the retreat at several points along the frontline.

The squabble reported in Russia is in other words a repeat of what we saw during the fall of Bakhmut, only magnitudes greater. Putin and Wagner appear to be fighting each other while a major victory is unfolding.

In the case of Bakhmut, the squabble turned out to be of great value to the Russians who managed to confuse their enemies sufficiently to draw them into a hopeless final battle for the city. What we're witnessing now might well be a repeat of the same trick, but instead of a key city falling into Russian hands, we'll see a collapse of the entire Ukrainian frontline.

What we're witnessing isn't in fact a squabble. Rather, it's political theatre that serves to solve several problems faced by the Russians in their hour of victory:

• The apparent squabble makes it harder for the West to organize a false flag or terror attack because it's unclear who it should be directed against.
• It emboldens hard pressed Ukrainian soldiers to take excessive risk along the frontline.
• It readies the Russian public to accept the establishment of a vassal kingdom under Wagner control in the Donbas region.

The fact that Wagner now controls Rostov, a Russian city close to the border of Ukraine, strengthens the hypothesis that Wagner has been promised territory as part of their pay. This has historically been the way powerful mercenary armies have been rewarded, but this type of reward cannot be given without a good excuse.

That excuse is now being prepared in the form of a negotiated peace between Putin and Wagner.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link