Russia are making some modest gains in and around the salt mining town of Soledar. This is not much of an offensive in terms of scale, so if the Russians are planning a large scale winter offensive as I've been predicting, it has yet to materialize. What we're witnessing looks more like a war of attrition, where the aim is to wear down the enemies rather than to capture as much territory as possible.
A statement made by Dmitry Utkin of the Wagner Group seems to support this idea. His motto is to "die as little as possible and win as much as possible". Their emphasis at the moment appears to be to die as little as possible. The Russians are wearing down the Ukrainians by inflicting losses in terms of material and men while keeping their own losses at a minimum.
The fact that the Wagner Group, rather than the Russian conscription army, is playing such an important role in the war is interesting in that it highlights a historic tendency when it comes to warfare. Warfare becomes over time increasingly the domain of professionals. Battles are fought using mercenary armies, and conscripts are mainly used for occupation and peace keeping.
This happened with Rome, where the Goths became increasingly important over time. It also happened in Portugal during the re-conquest, with Knight Templars becoming increasingly important. This is because warfare is a complex art, only suitable for men of a certain calibre. Conscripts are amateurs, ill prepared for the type of thinking and actions that go on during a battle, and they tend to be steamrolled by professionals who are both better prepared and better equipped than the amateurs.
The only sensible role of conscripts in warfare is to facilitate peacekeeping in occupied territories and provide logistic support for the professionals. When used directly in battle, conscripts fare badly, and are often massacred in the thousands.
Seen in this perspective, it's telling that the Russians have amassed half a million conscripts, ready to deploy into Ukraine. They are not being used directly in battle. They are simply sitting in the background, ready to move in when the dust settles. The idea may well be to never employ them in battle, unless there's a massive offensive by the Ukrainians that require the Russians to man up their defensive positions.
What's happening in Ukraine at the moment appears to follow the pattern of Rome in decline, and/or Portugal during its initial expansion. Mercenaries are becoming increasingly important. As such, it's interesting to note how mercenaries affected both Rome and Portugal in this respect. The mercenaries who started out as purely commercial ventures morphed into political ventures. It was not enough to get paid in gold. Compensation had to come in the form of territory as well.
When Rome fell, Goths took over the administration of the western part of the old empire, and we saw the emergence of modern Europe, with kings ruling different regions. Most of these kings claimed to be in some way related to the Goths.
When Portugal expanded southwards during the re-conquests, Knight Templars were rewarded with territorial fiefdoms. The Knight Templars became regional rulers under loose control by the king in Lisbon.
A similar development may well come about as we see mercenary armies like the Russian Wagner Group and the US based Blackwater become increasingly important. Eric Prince, the CEO of Blackwater, has at times expressed political ambitions, and the apparent tension between Putin and Dmitry Utkin may indicate a similar ambition.
One of the more unexpected things to unfold as we move into the new era in front of us may be the reappearance of territorial fiefdoms. If the Wagner Group proves instrumental in securing the eastern part of Ukraine on behalf of Putin, it could well be that this region falls under the political control of Dmitry Utkin, with Russia only wielding indirect control through an agreement similar to what the Knight Templars had with the king of Portugal.
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