Stoltenberg's Defeat

More than a year has passed since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine. Diplomacy had broken down and the Russians decided to make the first move in the conflict. There was an initial swift strike on Kiev, which failed, followed by a broad advance into eastern Ukraine that was stopped and in some places reversed over the spring and summer. As far as territory is concerned, little has happened since then.

What we're seeing is an artillery war reminiscent of the western front of World War 1. Soldiers deployed at the front line have four hours on average to live before they are hit according to some estimates. Ukraine has lost a quarter of a million men in the twelve months up until now. Russian figures are estimated to be about the same. That's half a million dead young men in the space of a year.

This is the price we've paid so far for failed diplomacy, and the chief diplomat for NATO is Jens Stoltenberg, a man who was an outspoken pacifist in his youth. He wanted Norway out of NATO. If the Russians were to invade, Norwegians shouldn't resist, but work against the Soviet overlords through peaceful protest and disobedience.

However, once the Soviet Union collapsed, Jens Stoltenberg changed his tune. He became increasingly pro-US and was a keen supporter of the war in Libya. When asked about Norwegian involvement in that war, he replied with a flippant remark about the virtues of target practice. It didn't seem to bother him that one of the targets was an orphanage that Norwegian pilots levelled in order to get at Gaddafi who was rumoured to be hiding out among the children.

Stoltenberg's diplomacy with the Russians hasn't been much to brag about either. Instead of actively looking for common ground, Stoltenberg kept rising the stakes. He needed only to honour past promises related to NATO expansion and find reasonable ways to police the Donbas region of Ukraine in order to save what has now become half a million lives. But he chose instead to invite Ukraine into NATO, thereby setting off Russian aggression.

This made it clear that Stoltenberg wasn't put in charge of the diplomatic efforts in order to broker a peace deal. He was put on the job to trigger a proxy war in which NATO could fight Russia without having to send NATO soldier to the frontline. With billions of dollars worth of military hardware ready to be poured into Ukraine, Stoltenberg's backers were sure of an eventual victory as well as a handsome profit from arms sales.

Stoltenberg had done exactly as he was told, and is continuing to do so even as the horrible consequences of his failed diplomacy is becoming clear to everyone. The Ukrainians have lost so many soldiers that we will soon have to send troops from other countries into battle in order to keep up the pressure. A propaganda campaign to this effect has already started, with people like Sean Penn urging NATO countries to become more directly involved in the conflict.

The backdrop to this latest development is the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut which has been under siege by the Russians for the greater part of this winter. This is where Kiev is sending their young men to die in their hundreds every day. The battle is estimated to have claimed around a hundred thousand Ukrainian lives so far. Without fresh recruits entering the conflict from outside of the Ukraine, this battle will be lost and the Russians will be in a position to take multiple other cities that depend on Bakhmut.

The city of Bakhmut is so important that it cannot be allowed to fall. But the cost of holding it is enormous. As such it's the ideal battleground for the Russians. The Russians don't need to launch an all out offensive when they can stay in their positions and wear the enemy out over time. The Russians are waging a war of attrition rather than the blitzkrieg that was expected.

As things stand, Ukrainian forces cannot win in Bakhmut. They can only lose immediately or lose later. The rational thing would therefore be to withdraw from Bakhmut immediately, but that would result in immediate backlash against those who sent thousands of young men to their certain death for nothing. The situation is politically difficult, and politicians are extending the conflict in hope of some miracle. They are engaged in the type of wishful think that German leaders engaged in towards the end of the second world war, and people like Sean Penn are actively encouraging this by holding up promises of more direct support from NATO.

As head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg stands to lose a lot too, should Bakhmut fall and cause a domino effect along the highway's leading out of that city. He would have to explain his diplomacy and his failure to secure a peace deal with the Russians. A negotiated peace that ends up more favourable for the Russians than what Stoltenberg was willing to accept a year ago would translate into half a million dead bodies for nothing. That's a mighty big pile of dead bodies to somehow explain away as a good thing.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link