One Dam, Two Stories

Someone blew a hole in a Russian controlled dam the other day. That's a war crime. That much is certain. However, who's to blame isn't equally clear, at least not to everyone. There are two narratives, one pinning the blame on Putin. The other pinning the blame on NATO supported Ukraine.

The narrative put forward by most western intellectuals is that the sabotage of the dam came in response to the recently launched counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces. The Russians blew a hole in their own dam in order to flood the frontline with water, while at the same time blaming their opponents for resorting to terrorism.

The narrative presented by the Russians is that western backed Ukrainian forces blew a hole in the dam out of desperation. Their much touted counteroffensive was a dud that had to be cancelled within hours of starting. Being bad losers, they decided to terrorise the Russians instead while putting the blame on Putin. An added bonus to the Ukrainians is the massive civilian emergency created which will slow down any counter-counteroffensives that the Russians may have planned.

These narratives may seem equally believable to the casual observer. However, there are a few points to this story that tilts the story towards the Russian viewpoint. The dam that was blown up provides water to Crimea, it provides cooling water to a nuclear reactor controlled by the Russians, and the flooding is primarily affecting ethnic Russians. Blowing it up is terrorism, plain and simple, and the victims are all ethnic Russians. Only if the Russians were about to be completely overwhelmed by Ukrainian forces would such a desperate act be taken by the man who sees himself as a father to all Russians.

It appears then that we have to look outside Russia in order to find the true terrorists.

Mark Esper with Jens Stoltenberg

By U.S. Secretary of Defense - 200212-D-AP390-6107, CC BY 2.0, Link