Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Disappearing Investment-grade Gold

Gold coins, gold wafers and bars are becoming increasingly hard to find. My local bank used to have two pages of such gold products on display in their online store, with a total of at least thirty different products. That was some six years ago. Today, they're down to seven gold product, and with the exception of a ten gram wafer, none of them look very interesting.

This doesn't mean that the bigger, more interesting wafers and bars are unavailable. They can probably be ordered, but that would require a visit to the bank, and some patient waiting for delivery.

Local goldsmiths appear to be equally short on investment gold. They used to have coins and wafers on display together with regular jewellery, but not anymore. Only jewellery is on display.

This comes after three disappointing months for gold investors. Support at the $1670 level was broken back in September. The price fell to about $1620, where it bounced a total of three times over the next two months before coming back up above $1900 where gold is currently trading.

In dollar terms, gold has gone nowhere since early 2020. However, gold is trading at all times high in Norwegian Kroner, and gold looks again poised for a major break out to the upside. There will be fierce resistance at the $2000 and $2100 levels for sure, but there're correspondingly strong supports at the $1700 and $1600 levels.

We're stuck in a relatively narrow trading range which we will eventually escape. With physical gold apparently in short supply and the world economy a mess, the odds favour a major break out to the upside rather than to the downside.

The giant cup and handle formation that has formed in the gold chart since 2011 suggests that any breakout to the upside will send gold to about $3000.

Monthly gold chart captured January 24 2023
Monthly gold chart captured January 24 2023

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