Wikipedia keeps track of notable people, including their dates of birth and death. This is in turn organized into lists which we can scavenge for data related to our society's current obsession with viruses, vaccines and deaths.
Notable people represent a fairly homogenous group of individuals. They are generally healthy and well educated. They tend to live long lives. The young ones are not much different from what the old ones were when they were younger. There's no reason to think that one year should be any different from any other year when it comes to mortality rates unless there's some external factor involved.
A change in mortality rates among notable people is therefore a good indicator of a change in external factors.
Using my browser's find function on Wikipedia's lists, I 've collected data for 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018. The find function is useful because it saves me from counting. A quick visual check is sufficient to validate and filter the captured data.
Wikipedia's list for 2021 is not complete, so it's a little early to say anything definitive about that year. But 2020, 2019 and 2018 can be compared without other caveats than the fact that Wikipedia is an ongoing project, so total numbers for 2020 can be expected to be greater than 2019, and 2019 can be expected to have more deaths than 2018. The distribution of deaths among age groups, on the other hand, can be compared.
There's so much data in Wikipedia's lists that I've limited myself to the months of January, April, July, and October. The assumption being that one month from each season is enough to collect a representative sample of the entire year.
Comparing the distribution of deaths between 2020, 2019 and 2018, I found no significant change. The virus didn't cause a noticeable spike in deaths in any age group during 2020. If there was a pandemic that year, it hit the old and the young with equal percentage force.
However, comparing 2019 with 2021, we find a spike in deaths among people in their 60s. Deaths go from 11.4% in 2019 to 14.1% in 2021. There's also a spike in deaths among people in their 30s. 2.1% in 2019 becomes 3.6% in 2020. 79% of the deaths in 2019 occurred in people 70 years and older. This age group accounted for 74% of the deaths in 2021.
From this we see that there's been a shift towards younger people dying, and that this shift started in 2021; the year of the vaccine rollout.
Here's the data and calculations:
2021:
20s = 5 = 1.12%
30s = 16 = 3.57%
40s = 10 = 2.23%
50s = 28 = 6.25%
60s = 63 = 14.10%
70s = 103 = 22.99%
80s = 138 = 30.80%
90s = 78 = 17.41%
100s = 15 = 3.35%
110s = 2 = 0.45%
Total = 448
January 2020:
20s = 11 = 1.38%
30s = 11 = 1.38%
40s = 18 = 2.26%
50s = 47 = 5.89%
60s = 82 = 10.28%
70s = 152 = 19.05%
80s = 263 = 32.96%
90s = 192 = 24.06%
100s = 22 = 2.76%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 798
April 2020:
20s = 8 = 0.71%
30s = 14 = 1.24%
40s = 20 = 1.77%
50s = 47 = 4.15%
60s = 112 = 9.89%
70s = 273 = 24.12%
80s = 409 = 36,13%
90s = 238 = 21.02%
100s = 21 = 1.86%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 1132
July 2020:
20s = 7 = 0.85%
30s = 12 = 1.45%
40s = 23 = 2.79%
50s = 71 = 8.61%
60s = 101 = 12.24%
70s = 190 = 23.03%
80s = 236 = 28.61%
90s = 168 = 20.36%
100s = 16 = 1.94%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 825
October 2020:
20s = 5 = 0.74%
30s = 10 = 1.47%
40s = 26 = 3.83%
50s = 39 = 5.73%
60s = 79 = 11.63%
70s = 153 = 22.53%
80s = 204 = 30.04%
90s = 151 = 22.24%
100s = 12 = 1.77%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 679
January + April + July + October 2020:
20s = 31 = 0.90%
30s = 47 = 1.37%
40s = 87 = 2.53%
50s = 204 = 5.93%
60s = 374 = 10.86%
70s = 768 = 22.31%
80s = 1112 = 32.30%
90s = 749 = 21.75%
100s = 71 = 2.06%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 3443
January 2019:
20s = 12 = 1.52%
30s = 13 = 1.65%
40s = 15 = 1.91%
50s = 44 = 5.59%
60s = 75 = 9.53%
70s = 164 = 20.84%
80s = 260 = 33.04%
90s = 183 = 23.25%
100s = 20 = 2.54%
110s = 1 = 0.13%
Total = 787
April 2019:
20s = 9 = 1.46%
30s = 12 = 1.94%
40s = 11 = 1.78%
50s = 28 = 4.53%
60s = 71 = 11.49%
70s = 134 = 21.68%
80s = 203 = 32.85%
90s = 139 = 22.49%
100s = 11 = 1.78%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 618
July 2019:
20s = 5 = 0.79%
30s = 18 = 2.84%
40s = 22 = 3.47%
50s = 35 = 5.52%
60s = 72 = 11.36%
70s = 125 = 19.72%
80s = 197 = 31.07%
90s = 149 = 23.50%
100s = 11 = 1.74%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 634
October 2019:
20s = 7 = 1.19%
30s = 12 = 2.03%
40s = 11 = 1.86%
50s = 31 = 5.25%
60s = 57 = 9.66%
70s = 129 = 21.86%
80s = 195 = 33.05%
90s = 135 = 22.88%
100s = 13 = 2.20%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 590
January + April + July + October 2019:
20s = 33 = 1.26%
30s = 55 = 2.10%
40s = 55 = 2.10%
50s = 138 = 5.27%
60s = 275 = 10.50%
70s = 552 = 21.07%
80s = 855 = 32.63%
90s = 601 = 22.94%
100s = 55 = 2.10%
110s = 1 = 0.04%
Total = 2620
January 2018:
20s = 8 = 1.07%
30s = 20 = 2.68%
40s = 13 = 1.74%
50s = 36 = 4.83%
60s = 78 = 10.47%
70s = 171 = 22.95%
80s = 246 = 33.02%
90s = 156 = 20.94%
100s = 16 = 2.14%
110s = 1 = 0.13%
Total = 745
April 2018:
20s = 9 = 1.57%
30s = 11 = 1.92%
40s = 12 = 2.09%
50s = 21 = 3.66%
60s = 59 = 10.28%
70s = 124 = 21.60%
80s = 189 = 32.93%
90s = 134 = 23.34%
100s = 14 = 2.44%
110s = 1 = 0.17%
Total = 574
July 2018:
20s = 10 = 1.75%
30s = 14 = 2.45%
40s = 16 = 2.80%
50s = 38 = 6.65%
60s = 69 = 12.08%
70s = 130 = 22.77%
80s = 175 = 30.65%
90s = 98 = 17.16%
100s = 21 = 3.68%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 571
October 2018:
20s = 5 = 0.88%
30s = 14 = 2.46%
40s = 18 = 3.16%
50s = 31 = 5.44%
60s = 54 = 9.47%
70s = 128 = 22.46%
80s = 187 = 32.81%
90s = 122 = 21.40%
100s = 11 = 1.93%
110s = 0 = 0%
Total = 570
January + April + July + October 2018:
20s = 32 = 1.30%
30s = 59 = 2.40%
40s = 59 = 2.40%
50s = 126 = 5.12%
60s = 260 = 10.57%
70s = 553 = 22.48%
80s = 797 = 32.40%
90s = 510 = 20.73%
100s = 62 = 2.52%
110s = 2 = 0.08%
Total = 2460
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