Autonomy and Sovereignty in Ukraine

The first casualty of war is truth. So goes the saying. However, if we look broadly at any war, we can still figure out more or less what's going on. From this, we can make predictions. We can even make recommendations.

Taking Ukraine as an example, we see that Russian advancement has stalled. An early push to take Kiev failed. With no willingness in the West to see a quick end to the war, and with Ukraine's politicians determined to continue, we're unlikely to see a quick resolution to the conflict.

Looking closer at what's going on, we see that Russian forces have control of regions where people of Russian origin reside. The front line coincides with a cultural border. If Russia's only goal was to secure control of Russian dominated areas, they could have declared partial victory at this point. What remains is a mop up of resistance here and there, and further control of the front line.

However, Russia wants more. They want an end to the current regime in Kiev, and a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. They want an end to any bio-weapon developments currently going on in Ukraine, and they want Ukraine to remain free of nuclear weapons. To achieve these goals, Russia will have to defeat the Ukraine army, something that looks increasingly unlikely.

My guess is therefore that Russia will either resume an all out attack on Kiev relatively soon, or switch to a long term plan in which eastern Ukraine ends up as part of Russia.

While the success of a short and intense military push depends on factors we're unable to judge from our sofas, the success of a long term plan of cultural inclusion is determined by factors that we can judge. The first and foremost being general popularity in the local community.

If it's true that Ukraine Nazis have operated without restrictions in the east of Ukraine, Russians are most likely viewed as true liberators by the locals. A systematic clean up of local governments should be possible. Local institutions could be made into entrenched pro-Russian hold outs. Police could be empowered to arrest people suspected of anti-Russian activities.

However, Russia must be careful not to go overboard when it comes to rooting out anti-Russian elements. They mustn't become so oppressive that local Ukrainians start joining underground movements. There has to be a sense among everyone that the Russian army is operating under a fair system of law that treats local Ukrainians on par with local Russians.

Russia should also ensure that there's room for optimism among all locals. Eastern Ukraine should be perceived as being a better place to live than the rest of Ukraine, and one way to do this is to scale back taxation and government bureaucracy. If the Russians install liberal rules on trade and commerce, the difference between eastern Ukraine and the rest of the region will become noticeable within a year or two.

Local support is always key in the long run, as we have seen with the many wars waged by the West over the past decades. A quick victory means nothing if local resistance to cultural change is strong. The system at the local level is always a reflection of culture. Hence, Russia can only hold eastern parts of Ukraine without great cost. The rest of Ukraine will never become an integral part of Russia. But the eastern part can be integrated, and with little cost if done properly.

A dramatic wind down in military activity at this point may be the best long term move for the Russians. The less offensive fighting is done by the Russian army, the less they will look like the bad guys. If local government is empowered to clean out remaining resistance in the occupied areas, it will look all the more like things are returning to normal.

When entrenched in an area that's culturally aligned with the occupying army, time works to the advantage of the occupiers. They become accepted. They may even become well liked. That never happens when there's a cultural mismatch. No matter how well intended the occupiers may be, the result is always failure.

My guess is that Putin will end up winning this war. A few years down the line, the current front line will become the de facto border between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how contested it may be in the eyes of the West.

Vladimir Putin

By Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Link