Saturday, December 18, 2021

Vaccine Death Statistics

I now have about 360 names on my list of vaccine proponent. Eight of these have died since the vaccine rollout, which might sound alarming. However, the average age of the people on the list is about 50, so the number of deaths is not outside of that which would be expected. A normal year has a death rate of about 1.5% of the population, so 2.2% is well within reason for the age group in my list.

I must admit to some scavenging for dead celebrities, which skews the data towards a higher percentage. However, I've deliberately avoided very old individuals. Just about everyone was fit and healthy at the start of this year. This should counterweight my prejudice, and make the list fairly neutral.

We can conclude from this that there's no clear overweight towards higher than normal mortality among vaccine proponents. But we're dealing with a virus that has a mortality rate of 0.03%, so a mortality rate of 0.04% due to vaccines would be sufficient to make them counterproductive, and such differences can only be calculated from national statistics.

My sample of 360 individuals is too small for such a comparison. To see the impact of the vaccines, we need to keep an eye on the overall mortality rate of nations, and compare this and following years with the years leading up to the pandemic. Lists of individuals, even with hundreds of names in them, will have little value in this respect, unless there's a dramatic change in mortality rates in one of the two groups.

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