Friday, May 19, 2017

One in a Zillion

Bitcoin is no longer the dominant crytocurrency that it once was. Despite its latest run, it now accounts for less than half the total value of the cryptocurrency market, and as a technology it is already dead.

It takes 20 minutes to make a transaction in Bitcoin, and this time delay is only going to grow if this currency gains any kind of credibility among retailers. In other words, Bitcoin only works as long as very few people use it. That's hardly great news for a currency with no other value than that it can be transacted.

However, the problem with cryptocurrencies do not stop with Bitcoin. All cryptocurrencies have value simply because they can be transacted in. But a transaction in cryptocurrencies is no more than a transfer of some digital numbers from one account to another. That's a very simple technology. Anyone with a bit of programming knowledge can make such a system.

The future will be one with zillions of cryptocurrencies to choose from, and who's to say what the right value is for a unit. One unit makes a transaction just as well as millions units. There is no practical distinction between large numbers and small numbers when it comes to the practicality of making a transaction. Unlike gold or silver, where a large unit is more useful in terms of what you can make from it in way of jewelry or engineering, cryptocurrencies are just as useful in large quantities as they are in small quantities. There is no distinction, and price determination is therefore impossible. A cryptocurrency can loose half its value over night because such a fall has no practical significance. The currency's ability to perform its only useful function is not impaired. However, a similar drop in the value of gold or silver would allow jewelers and engineers to pick up these commodities at bargain prices.

Unbacked cryptocurrencies are doomed, because objective price discovery is impossible. Only currencies backed by gold or silver will survive. But until then, expect a zillion different cryptocurrencies to arrive.

Casascius coin.jpg

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