I've decided to make a thorough analysis of Wikipedia's notable deaths.
If something out of the ordinary is going on, it should show up in these numbers. Not so much in the absolute numbers of deaths as in the relative numbers of deaths. If there's a spike in the death rate among the relatively young, we can assume that something is not quite right.
This led me to take another look at December 2021, which came out with a relative mortality rate among those under 70 years of age at 26.37% last time I looked at the data. That's a great deal higher than the average of about 22%. It's such an outlier that it indicates that something really bad was going on.
I decided to double-check the numbers, and found that all the numbers had been changed by quite a lot since my last analysis. However, the grand total of deaths ended up exactly the same as last time. Any person looking solely at the total number of deaths will find no change in the data. It's the distribution that has changed.
Old people have been added, and young people removed, so that the relative number of deaths comes out to 21.96%. December is no longer an outlier. It's a typical December month when compared to other years. The only difference is in the totals, which remain elevated when compared to pre-pandemic years:
Deaths among those younger than 70 years of age now compares to previous years as follows:
- 21.16% in December 2018
- 18.89% in December 2019
- 22.14% in December 2020
- 21.96% in December 2021 (26.37%)
December 2020 is worst, with December 2021 a close second.
When we look at absolute numbers we get the following:
- 567 in December 2018
- 646 in December 2019
- 953 in December 2020
- 838 in December 2021
Using a severity formula that divides old deaths by 10 and multiplies young deaths by 4 we get the following:
- 525 in December 2018
- 540 in December 2019
- 918 in December 2020
- 801 in December 2021
December 2020 is worst, with December 2021 second, both in total deaths and in severity.
Here are the numbers extracted from Wikipedia:
December 2021:
- 20s = 5 = 1.19%
- 30s = 18 = 2.63%
- 40s = 15 = 2.74%
- 50s = 48 = 6.68%
- 60s = 98 = 13.13%
- 70s = 197 = 21.96%
- 80s = 262 = 29.24%
- 90s = 171 = 19.21%
- 100+ = 24 = 3.22%
Total = 838; Younger than 70 = 21.96%
December 2020:
- 20s = 11 = 1.15%
- 30s = 16 = 1.68%
- 40s = 21 = 2.20%
- 50s = 51 = 5.35%
- 60s = 112 = 11.75%
- 70s = 215 = 22.56%
- 80s = 319 = 33.47%
- 90s = 195 = 20.46%
- 100+ = 13 = 1.36%
Total = 953; Younger than 70 = 22.14%
December 2019:
- 20s = 9 = 1.39%
- 30s = 8 = 1.24%
- 40s = 15 = 2.32%
- 50s = 32 = 4.95%
- 60s = 58 = 8.98%
- 70s = 152 = 23.53%
- 80s = 201 = 31.11%
- 90s = 153 = 23.68%
- 100+ = 18 = 2.79%
Total = 646; Younger than 70 = 18.89%
December 2018:
- 20s = 5 = 0.88%
- 30s = 10 = 1.76%
- 40s = 15 = 2.65%
- 50s = 25 = 4.41%
- 60s = 65 = 11.46%
- 70s = 115 = 20.28%
- 80s = 174 = 30.69%
- 90s = 140 = 24.69%
- 100+ = 18 = 3.17%
Total = 567; Younger than 70 = 21.16%
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| Wikipedia |
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