Measures, Counter Measures and Counter Counter Measures

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

- Mike Tyson

We're one week into the war in Ukraine, and things are already developing in unpredictable ways. The Russians may still be following some kind of game plan, and the West is following their usual playbook with sanctions and financial restrictions, but apart from that, everybody is just coming up with stuff off the top of their heads.

Most Ukrainians didn't expect a war, so they are scrambling to put together a resistance. However, this has not left them as impotent as the Russians seem to have expected. The Ukrainians are surprisingly motivated, and what was supposed to be a quick surrender is looking more and more like a prolonged battle.

I too had expected something quick and limited. My vision was for a repeat of Russia's successful takeover of Crimea, and heavy fighting was not a part of that vision.

It appears that we've come to the end of everybody's game-plans, so things will become even more unpredictable from now on. There will be ad-hoc solutions to just about everything. For every measure, there will be a counter measure, and for every counter measure there will be a counter counter measure.

Western sanctions will be circumvented by the Russians, and the overwhelming force of the Russian military will hit upon unexpected snags. The Ukranians will discover weakness in the Russian strategy, and they will exploit them in ways unimagined by anyone. The Russians will find equally creative ways to circumvent Western sanctions.

If no-one puts an end to the war in the short term, things will become completely unpredictable until some new pattern emerges. Only when everybody has exhausted their creativities will there again be a willingness to negotiate, so we're either looking at a war that's over in a few more days, or a war that drags on for months, and possible years.

There will be little interest in negotiations during the chaotic period ahead of us because it will constantly look like one of the sides is about to emerge victorious, and no-one wants to give away their victory at the negotiation table.

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