The Shape of Things to Come

Biden has only been in office a few days, and things are already looking ugly in terms of popularity. All sorts of mistakes are being made, the latest of which being his decision to kick national guardsmen out of the Capitol where they've been sleeping rough for two weeks, supposedly to protect the Capitol against Trump supporters. Biden is also determined to go ahead with an impeachment of Trump, something that comes across as positively vindictive.

It's as if Biden is either oblivious to his lack of popularity or indifferent to it. This may be because he has the backing of every tech firm and every high ranking officer in every department and branch of government, and he can always print a few trillion dollars and dish it out to people if need be. From where he's sitting, it must look like his control is total. However, this is far from true.

Controlling the top of hierarchies is no substitute for popularity. Top managers rely on an army of middle managers who in turn rely on boots on the ground. If either of these layers stop functioning, things quickly unravel. If the army suddenly finds itself without recruits, the army stops functioning. If sheriffs stop enforcing laws, there's de-facto secession. If middle managers stop doing their jobs, things fall apart.

Popularity is vital for the functioning of a federal government. Without it, states and counties start acting autonomously. Taxes will not be forwarded to the federal government and troops will not be conscripted. The federal government will increasingly rely on money-printing. But this will weaken the dollar, and hence further reduce its grip on the federation. States may choose to scrap the federal dollar in favour of the constitutional gold based dollar.

Making this all the more difficult to avoid is the fact that none of this requires any direct confrontation with the federal government. There's no need for anyone to publically renounce the union. Once sheriffs stop enacting federal laws, and states start using their own money, secession is complete. No hostility towards Washington DC is needed for this to happen, and without hostility there's no way for an unpopular leader to muster an attack to rein in dissent.

Joe Biden

By The White House from Washington, DC - V011013DL-0556, Public Domain, Link