A Second Step Towards Secession

It took Biden less than a week in office to provoke thoughts of secession in the provinces. This is clear from the reactions to his ban on oil production on federal land. The Ute tribe of indigenous Indians have filed a protest against the ban, pointing out that oil production on federal land is how the tribe finances its activities. Others are less vocal, but no less desperate. Many communities depend on oil production on federal land for their existence. But without the leverage of tribal autonomy, most of these communities have no options but to comply or defy the ban.

Rural America is typically Republican, and therefore not particularly loyal to Biden. Many believe him to be an usurper, and his ban on activities at the periphery of his domain must be seen by many as proof positive that he is no friend of the people. Given the choice between suicide or going dark, many will seek ways to continue oil production through legal trickery. As a first step, they are likely to consult the local sheriff. Will the sheriff enforce the dictates from Washington DC?

It is the sheriffs that are tasked with the day to day handling of law and order, so it's of vital importance that they comply with orders from above. However, sheriffs are elected locally. Their main concern is therefore to serve the community. Taking orders from above is secondary. Seeing wholesale destruction of their local community, sheriffs will be inclined towards alternative solutions.

The sheriffs can turn a blind eye to oil production. They can allow miss-labeling and other trickery. There's a whole range of possibilities available to them, some of which are capable of boosting the local economy. With oil production officially turned off, no taxes need being paid to Washington. Played properly, the sheriff's office can keep oil production going while simultaneously receiving various support measures from Washington. The economic incentive for trickery and fraud is significant.

This means that Washington DC cannot rely on sheriffs to uphold Biden's ban on oil production. It must be done by federal agents in corporation with federal law enforcement. In case of irregularities, the national guard must be called in to arrest the sheriff. But Biden has already made himself unpopular with the national guard. They may not act very effectively on behalf of Washington. They too may decide to report back that all is well without actually doing anything.

The net result of this may be that Washington DC gets feedback from the periphery that conflicts with reality. They may end up subsidizing the non-compliant while hurting the compliant, further accelerating the trend towards micro-secession.

Federal land

By Bureau of Land Management - http://wilderness.org/blm-lands, Public Domain, Link