Things have gotten positively weird since I wrote my post on the totalitarian paradox, and it appears that things are about to come unglued. Just as predicted in my post, bureaucrats and state officials of various stripes are starting to ignore and oppose the edicts of aspiring totalitarian leaders. As a case in point we just got this news story that a sheriff in California has made it clear that he will not enforce the latest laws and regulations coming from the state governor.
This is a significant development because sheriffs in the US are elected figures at the county level. If they stop enforcing rules and regulations issued by the state, they are in effect taking a first step towards secession.
What makes this news report even more significant is that the stakes have immediately been raised by state officials. They are threatening to withhold state and federal funds. But this can in turn be countered by county officials by withholding taxes collected on behalf of the state and federal governments. The county in question is presumably wealthy enough to take care of their own finances based on their own resources. If this happens, it would be secession in all but name.
What history teaches us when it comes to secession is that it's frequently a rather discrete affair. It doesn't require any grand declaration. All that's required is a will to secede, and this comes about the moment regional governments no longer see any benefit in paying tribute to higher government levels. What follows may be a formal declaration of independence, but it may just as well be a quiet affair. North-west Iberia seceded from Rome simply by withholding taxes and minting their own coins. This happened without any violent confrontations of note.
The role of money in secession movements are often trivialized or ignored, but is in fact the main driver of secession. It all boils down to taxes and funding. When taxation becomes burdensome relative to funding, secession becomes increasingly likely. This means that secession is unlikely as long as the centrally issued currency is strong and business regulations are relatively lax. But should the currency deteriorate, and regulations become burdensome, secession starts making a lot of sense.
This means that a deteriorating US dollar will have serious implications. Coupled with out of control totalitarianism at the state and federal level, many county sheriffs will simply stop taking orders from higher up in the federal structure. Books will be cooked so as to make it seem that little to no taxes have been collected, and there may be moves to make gold and silver legal tender within the county borders. Like minded sheriffs can then forge alliances independent of state and federal agents, re-drawing the political map in the process.
This may sound unlikely, but history tells us that this is a rather common outcome, especially when it comes to large federations with aspirations towards empire.
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