Dr Neckelmann and the Horizon Problem

With the sudden and tragic death of Dr Gregory Michael Neckelmann, it now appears that the nightmare scenario outlined in my post about Sonia Azevedo's sudden death has a real chance of coming true. Vaccinated on December 18, Dr Neckelmann died 16 days later after a short fight with a mysterious and intense illness.

Dr Neckelmann was a healthy and fit 56 year old man, so there's little doubt that the illness and subsequent death was related to the vaccine. While it remains to be seen if there will be a wave of vaccine related deaths starting two weeks from now, Dr Neckelmann's death illustrates an important point when it comes to risk-benefit assessments.

While most uncertainties are limited to a known range of possible outcomes, some are limitless. This depends on empirical data available to us. With years of experience, we know very well what sort of weather we're likely to have next summer, and we can calculate risk accordingly. That's why we can plan our summer vacations months in advance. However, in the case of a vaccine that has not been tested for long term effects, anything is possible. There simply isn't any empirical data to base any kind of assumption on. There's a horizon beyond which things are completely unknown, and Dr Neckelmann found out the hard way what that might mean when it comes to substances injected into our body. Once injected, there's no way of un-injecting them. When Dr Neckelmann realized that he was getting seriously ill from the vaccine, there was no way back.

The lesson from this is that we must never risk our health on anything truly unknown. If there's no empirical data, we are best advised to abstain for as long as it takes to assess long term effects.

Smallpox vaccine

By Photo Credit: James Gathany Content Providers(s): CDC - This media comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Public Health Image Library (PHIL), with identification number #2674. Note: Not all PHIL images are public domain; be sure to check copyright status and credit authors and content providers. Deutsch | English | македонски | slovenščina | +/−, Public Domain, Link