Undetected Flu Cases

To start with, everyone in Portugal who had been in contact with someone with the Wuhan flu were tested. There were cases of perfectly healthy people going into hospital for observation. As the numbers of confirmed cases increased, more and more people were told to stay at home and report back if they felt worse. These cases were noted down as possible, but not confirmed, cases. As the number of confirmed cases continued to rise, even more people remained untested.

The number of untested people relative to tested and confirmed cases has in other words grown. To start with, hardly anyone went untested. Now that we are nearing 20,000 cases, the vast majority of actual cases is likely to be untested. Adding to this that a very large percentage display no symptoms, we get an explanation for why the curve has flattened way beyond what social distancing could be expected to do on its own. The curve is simply not as flat as it appears.

The number of cases went up by a tenfold every week until social distancing was imposed. After that, it took two weeks to tenfold once more. However, at this point it looks like we will not get another tenfold at all even though the official cases are a tiny fraction of the population. Based on the official cases, there cannot possibly be any herd immunity, so why is the curve flattening as if we have already reached the peak?

The most likely answer to this is that the virus has in fact peaked, and that a mere fraction of the people affected have been so ill as to seek help. A recent study in Boston seems to confirm this suspicion. When all the occupants of a homeless shelter were tested for the Wuhan flu, half of them tested positive. Yet not a single one had any symptoms.

It appears then that the Wuhan flu is both more widespread than official figures would suggest, and a lot less dangerous. Homeless people are not exactly known for their robust health, so the fact that not a single one was showing any symptoms is encouraging. If we do not soon see a sudden deterioration in the health of asymptomatic individuals, we can conclude that the virus is generally harmless, and only dangerous to a small percentage of the population.

By John Ramspott - https://www.flickr.com/photos/jramspott/3657133286/, CC BY 2.0, Link