When to Duck and Cover

The Wuhan coronavirus has reached Iberia, with one case confirmed in Spain. From looking at how this virus has spread in China, we may assume that this case in Spain puts the total of cases in all of Iberia at about 10. The rate of spread is at about a tenfold every week, so we can expect 10 confirmed cases in a week from now, with a total of about 100 cases.

This means that it is still way too early to take extra precautions. We're more likely to be hit by a bus over the coming week than being infected by the virus. However, that analysis may change. If we get a case in Porto, we should take note. Especially if that case is in the area we live. We don't want to take any unnecessary chances with this virus. Once there's a few confirmed cases in Porto, we should keep the kids home, and reduce our errands to a minimum.

By Lacobrigo - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link